Teasers. It is a controversial word in NFL football betting. Some football bettors and handicappers think that these types of wagers are ridiculous and, along with parlays, are a sportsbook’s best friend. Others feel that they can be a valuable resource in a gambler’s arsenal and when used properly can help someone boost their bankroll.
Super Bowl 46 will take place at 6 p.m. on Sunday, Feb. 5 at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis. The New England Patriots are presently three-point favorites over the New York Giants and the total in this game is set at 55.0.
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While there are all manner of wagers to be made on the Super Bowl – from alternate spreads to bizarre prop bets pitting wide receiver performances against NHL players – there is also still the good ol’ fashioned teaser as an option on Super Sunday.
For those new to betting NFL teasers it might help to have a quick refresher on what they are and how to bet football teasers.
A teaser is a type of wager where the bettor packages segments of a game (here “segments” means either the side or total, or both) together into a single wager. The benefit is that the bettor can move the spread or the total while paying a small vigorish on the wager. While the most common teasers are for 6.0, 6.5 or 7.0 points, there are other teasers that can move the line anywhere from 10 to 21 points.
For example, the Giants are currently at +3 and the total is at 55 in the Super Bowl. Someone could wager on a six-point teaser with the Giants at +9 and the ‘over’ on the total at +49. They have essentially “teased” the lines six points in their favor.
The key is that both segments of the wager need to hit in order for the bet to be a winner. If the Giants were to lose by seven but the total points finished at 45 the overall teaser would be a loser.
I, personally, feel that teasers are a very useful took in football betting. If you understand the concepts of key numbers or if you use advanced statistical matrices to formulate your wagers then getting up to a touchdown cushion on your wager gives a sharp bettor a strong mathematical edge.
I like to utilize teasers as a sort of “bad beat insurance” on some of my stronger plays. I like an underdog at +2.5 because I think they can win the game outright, I am definitely getting added value in a teaser with that team at +9.5. This way I am still covered if my side allows a game-ending field goal to lose by three points or if they give up a last-second touchdown to fall by four.
Further, I feel like teasers are a way to use the oddsmakers’ expertise against them. It never ceases to amaze me how many games have a final score that ends within a point or two of the posted spread or total. But because that is the case and because the numbers released from the oddsmakers are so tight, I can blow that number out of the water and stake a strengthened position because of the extra points I am getting.
Betting a teaser in the Super Bowl can be a tough proposition, however. During the regular season it is pretty easy to find two sides or totals, or combinations thereof, to package into a teaser. But Super Bowl betting only allows for two segments: one side and one total. That’s not really giving us a lot to work with.
Also, going back over the history of the Super Bowl there have been a vast array of blowouts and lopsided scores. For instance, having the Giants teased up to +10 and the ‘under’ teased up to 40.0 in Super Bowl 35 against the Baltimore Ravens might have seemed like a safe wager. But when the Ravens won 34-7 you wouldn’t even have been close to cashing that wager.
However, as parity has tightened its Communist grip on the NFL in recent years we have seen the league’s championship game played tighter and tighter each season.
Only once in the last 10 years has the Super Bowl been decided by more than two touchdowns and four points or fewer have determined five of those games. The average margin of victory over the last 10 Super Bowls has been just 8.6 points per game, and if you discount that Tampa Bay-Oakland game that number falls to just a 6.5-point differential – less than a touchdown – in the last nine Super Bowls.
In the last 18 Super Bowls a gambler could have gone 14-3-1 on a leg of the teaser that involved teasing the underdog seven points. The average spread during that span was the favorite -8.5 points and the average margin of victory was 11.4 points. And when you subtract the games in which the underdog won outright (and obviously covered) the average margin of victory by favorites was just 11.6.
Interestingly, those numbers are nearly identical for bettors who have teased the side of the favorite during the same period. The favorites have gone 13-5 on their leg of a seven-point teaser.
Further, teasing both sides of the game – that is, teasing the favorite and the underdog – would have resulted in a 9-8-1 overall mark during that stretch. With the increased vigorish (around -135 on a seven-point teaser) that would have been a losing proposition for our sample.
One of the main problems is that if the favorite loses they have never covered a teased spread.
The team that has won the Super Bowl has covered the spread to the tune of a 12-4-2 mark over the last 18 years. In the four instances where the team won but didn’t cover, a teaser would have led to a winning leg (18-0).
So if we have established that you can tease either the favorite or the underdog as one leg of the teaser – but we can’t tease both sides and have a consistently profitable wager – that would mean that we would have another segment of the game to tease in order to place a winning NFL teaser bet on the Super Bowl: the total.
Overall, teams are just 4-6 against the posted Super Bowl total over the last 10 years and 9-9 against the total over the last 18 seasons.
Teasing the ‘over’ seven points would have resulted in a mark of 11-6-1 over the past 18 years while teasing the ‘under’ would have gone 13-4-1.
So, apparently, you can tease just about any segment of the Super Bowl odds: the favorite, the underdog the ‘over’ or the ‘under’ and more times than not those extra seven points will result in a winning leg.
But the problem is that a teaser is a two-legged wager. And you have to hit both legs for the overall bet to pay out.
Here is how each combination of a seven-point Super Bowl teaser has fared over the last 18 years:
Favorite and ‘Over’: 9-7-2 (5-4-1 in L10)
Favorite and ‘Under’: 8-9-1 (4-6 in L10)
Underdog and ‘Over’: 8-9-1 (5-5 in L10)
Underdog and ‘Under’: 10-6-2 (6-3-1 L10)
‘Over’ and ‘Under’: 5-10-2 (3-6-1 in L10)
Favorite and Underdog: 9-8-1 (4-5-1 in L10)
As you can see, the only two-team, seven-point teaser combination to have consistently shown a profit over the last 10 years and the last 18 years would have been to tease the underdog and the ‘under’.
In the end, betting a Super Bowl teaser isn’t a high-value wager. That isn’t to say that teasers themselves are worthless. But with just one spread and one total to work with the odds are stacked against a bettor being right on both sides of The Big Game. And with all of the other proposition bets on the board there are probably better ways to invest your money.
Robert Ferringo has produced $4,000 in football profit for his clients since the end of November and has earned his backers over $16,000 in profit in all sports this fall and winter. He has posted a profit in four straight Super Bowls and six of seven and he will have a full compliment of selections available on Feb. 2. You can CLICK HERE for more info.