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Article Archives 2













2010 World Cup Futures Odds
by T.O. Whenham - 12/1/2009

Thierry Henry of France

The 2010 World Cup starts June 11 in South Africa. The field of 32 teams is set (though Ireland and Costa Rica are still holding out the impossible hope that they will get another shot after getting screwed by terrible officiating mistakes). The 2010 World Cup futures odds for the field were set as soon as the teams were determined, and as you would expect with a tournament this prestigious and anticipated there is a lot of interesting stuff to digest. Here's a look at a couple of the highlights:

Co-favorites - The top two teams in the odds are, not surprisingly, Brazil and Spain. If you didn't see that coming then you obviously haven't started to pay attention and get ready for the World Cup yet. The draws won't be made for the pools until Dec. 4, and that will determine how easily the particular teams will be able to progress to the second round and beyond, but there is little doubt that Spain and Brazil are the two best teams in the world right now. They have the most talented players, the most depth, and both have a history of success. Spain qualified as perfectly as a team possibly can - 10 wins in 10 qualifying games. Brazil was almost as good - nine wins and seven draws in 18 games. It will be no surprise if either of these teams is the last one standing.

England - This is a very important World Cup for England, because there is perhaps no team that needs serious success more than they do. After the humiliating debacle of not qualifying for Euro 2009 they have bounced back strong and won their qualifying group very easily. As in most years the team is talented and has the potential to go all the way. They have made an ongoing habit of underachieving when it really matters, though, and they desperately need to get past that.

France - There will be a lot of people looking to jump on France at +1800. They always seem to rise up to the challenge of the biggest stage - they were finalists last year, and champions in 1998. As well as they have done in the past, I certainly won't be touching them now. They have looked horrible through qualifying, and they are only in the field because of a blatant hand ball against Ireland. This is not the French team that we are used to, and though this price will attract plenty of public money I don't expect it to bring in much smart money.

No chance squads - Anything can happen in the World Cup, and we have seen time and again that teams can come from nowhere to make the playoffs rounds. That being said, there are five teams that I am more than confident won't be advancing regardless of who they end up playing. North Korea is totally and utterly outmatched, and South Korea is only marginally better. New Zealand is a lovely place with great lamb, but they aren't ready for soccer's big time. Honduras and Algeria make my list as well. These are the five longest shots on the board, and there is a very good reason why.

United States - Those Americans who are loyal to their home squad would be in for a big payday - they are at +10000. There's just one problem - it's not going to happen. The team was wildly disappointing at the last World Cup, and this team isn't significantly better than the last one. I'm not even convinced that they are as good. They weren't nearly as dominant as they should have been in the qualifying process, and they don't have a lineup that is confident and works together. The second round is a good possibility depending upon the draw, but there will be no South African miracle here.

Here are the odds for the full field (odds are from Bodog):

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Brazil

+490   

Spain

+490   

England

+740   

Argentina

+1000   

Germany

+1300   

Italy

+1600   

Netherlands

+1700   

France

+1800   

Portugal

+2000   

Ivory Coast

+2700   

Chile

+5200   

Ghana

+7600   

Serbia

+8400   

Paraguay

+8900   

USA

+10000   

Cameroon

+10500   

South Africa

+10900   

Australia

+11000   

Nigeria

+12500   

Uruguay

+12900   

Mexico

+13900   

Greece

+13900   

Denmark

+14000   

Slovenia

+19900   

Switzerland

+27000   

Slovakia

+33000   

Japan

+37900   

Algeria

+40000   

South Korea

+50900   

Honduras

+79000   

New Zealand

+92000   

North Korea

+100000