The 2010 World Cup, taking place in South Africa, is still two and a half years away - the first games kick off on June 11. That may seem like an eternity, and for most casual fans of the event that means that they won't be paying attention to soccer for a couple of years, but the process to see which teams will make up the field of 32 is already well underway. The first qualifying games were held in October, and the draw for the rest of the qualifying rounds was made on Nov. 25. Now every team knows when they will be playing and who they will be facing en route to Johannesburg.
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For bettors it's never too early to be looking for value. Bodog has released 2010 World Cup futures odds on both the qualifying groups and the overall winners of the tournament. Here's a look at some of the more interesting odds to win it all:
Brazil (4/1) - To the surprise of absolutely no one, the Brazilians are the early favorite to win it all. They are the best team in the world, and they are going to be very hungry in 2010 after a frustrating tournament in 2006, so they will certainly be among the top teams in South Africa. With the odds this low already, though, there is absolutely no value in a future bet now. You'll be able to get a price somewhere in this range two years from now.
Argentina (5/1) - Every word I said about Brazil applies here, too.
Italy (9/1) - At first glance it would seem like a bit of a bargain to see the defending champion as only the third favorite, and at a relative fat price compared to the two teams ahead of it. I'd actually suggest, though, that this price is quite a public-driven underlay. They won fair and square in 2006, but they weren't a heavy favorite going in, and they benefited from a relatively easy playoff path and uncharacteristically weak play from several of the top teams to get the win. They could certainly repeat their win again in 2010, but the odds of it happening aren't well represented by this price.
England (11/1) - You wouldn't seriously consider betting on a team right now that couldn't even manage to qualify for Euro 2008 and is currently without a head coach after theirs was fired in disgrace, would you? I didn't think so.
Spain (12/1) - The Spaniards are experts at seducing bettors with their potential and then disappointing them with their uninspired play. At this price they are setting their backers up for a fall. This price is high enough to make the loyal think it is a bargain, but not high enough to provide value given their track record.
France (14/1) - This team has a heck of a track record in recent World Cups - a win in 1998, and a runner up finish last year. The team has undergone some change, and there are a lot more players over 30 on the team than is ideal, so it may be a bit of an off year in 2010 for France, as it was in 2002.
Ivory Coast (50/1) - This is the first time that the World Cup, or any major world sporting event for that matter, has been in Africa. The African teams will be very hungry to win on their home turf and prove that they are legitimate contenders on the world stage. They have a long way to go - only one team out of five, Ghana, advanced to the round of 16 in 2006, and they were crushed by Brazil. At this point, the best African hope for 2010 is Ivory Coast. They were in an incredibly difficult group in 2006, but they did well. They beat Serbia, and they scored in losses against Argentina and the Netherlands. They had the potential to do well if they had drawn an easier group. Though coach Henri Michel left the team after the World Cup, the team will benefit greatly from the experience of their first World Cup, and the core of their team is young enough that they will still be at their peak in 2010. An intriguing team, though not a value at this price.
U.S. (80/1) - This price will catch the attention of those of you who are American, patriotic, and optimists. On the surface, there is not a lot to be excited about. The 2006 World Cup was a disaster, the roster is in flux, the coaching situation is unsettled long-term, and the future isn't as bright as it once seemed to be. On the plus side, the qualifying path is as easy as any in the world, and by 2010 both Freddy Adu and Jozy Altidore will have some valuable international experience, and in the case of Adu and likely Altidore tons of experience playing for a European club team. That means that they will hit the ground running and have a good chance of being valuable contributors in their first World Cup Appearance. A U.S. win is a real longshot, but then 80/1 is a real longshot price.
Angola (1500/1) - If you like real longshots then throw a buck or two on the Black Antelopes of Angola. In their first World Cup in 2006 they were very solid - they played Iran and Mexico to a draw, and only lost 1-0 to group winner Portugal. At 1500/1 they are probably still a significant underlay, but think if the bragging rights you'd have if you bought this ticket almost three years in advance and it paid off.