Betting on the Heisman Winner
by Trevor Whenham - 08/15/2013
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It's never too early to talk about the Heisman Trophy. Heck, it's never too early to bet on who will win the Heisman Trophy. Bodog has posted their odds already, and they give us a lot to talk about. It may not be the most logical bet, but it sure is fun:
Worth a look at low odds
Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame (5/2) - I don't think it's too much of an exaggeration to say that the Heisman is Quinn's to lose. He's a golden boy at the nation's favorite program. You just have to decide if the price is worth it. I'm not sure it is. He'll be under a microscope - one sub-par game will hurt him more than any other candidate.
Charlie Weis worked wonders last year, but they did better than they should have on paper, and the talent is largely the same this year. Opposing coaches have had more time to get ready for Quinn and Weis. On the plus side, if he can survive September he has an easy schedule until they close the season at USC. I'm not saying he won't win it, but I'm not betting he will at 5/2.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma (7/2) - One thing is for sure - Peterson is going to get the ball a whole lot. Thanks to Rhett Bomar's stupidity, Oklahoma suddenly doesn't have an established passing game, so Peterson will be relied on heavily. If he can stay healthy this year and the line can hold up to the pressure and open up some holes for him then the results could be truly incredible. The guy is unquestionably a major freak.
Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State (7/1) - His Fiesta Bowl tour de force has the football world talking about him. It's simplified but not entirely inaccurate to say that Smith is basically Vince Young in a Buckeyes uniform. Voters who feel guilty about passing over Young last year might look to redeem themselves with Smith this year. If he can stay healthy and have a good year and Ohio State can meet their hefty expectations, that is.
The field (7/1) - How often is the Heisman winner someone we aren't even talking about in the summer? Besides all of the freshman who could explode, or the hidden sophomores who could turn into supermen, there are a lot of good, established names lumped into this group. Jamaal Charles is a running back stud who will get a lot more attention now that Young isn't there to run the ball in Texas. Pat White is a QB who can run like the wind, and West Virginia is a hot team. Sam Keller has a sick arm and ASU has an offense to show it off. Dwayne Jarrett is the elder statesman on offense for USC. Calvin Johnson of Georgia Tech may be the best receiver in the country. You get lots of intriguing names for one price.
Longshots who deserve some love
John David Booty, QB, USC (20/1) - He's a USC quarterback. That almost guarantees him a Heisman sooner or later. He has a back that is a bit scary, and he hasn't played much, but neither had Palmer or Leinart when they won. He was a super-stud in high school, so anything could happen.
Michigan's Dynamic Duo - RB Mike Hart (15/1) struggled with injuries last year, and QB Chad Henne (25/1) just plain struggled. They have boatloads of talent, however, and they finally have a new offensive coordinator, which means that opposing defensive players may not be able to predict every single play this year. Michigan is a much improved team, and if they have a strong season these two guys will be the reason.
Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn (25/1) - Auburn's running backs have done okay in the last few years. If two getting drafted in the top five in the same draft is okay, that is. Irons finished the season last year with six straight 100-yard games. If he can build on that performance, and if Auburn can do enough to get him some national attention, then Irons could definitely make a mark in the race.
Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville (35/1) - Brian Brohm has the potential and the system to make him the first quarterback drafted next spring. He's healthy after a bad year last year and he has all sorts of help with Michael Bush carrying the ball. Brohm is exactly what a quarterback should look like and play like. Bobby Petrino will give him every chance to shine. If he takes advantage of the opportunity then this could be a huge value bet.
Not worth considering at any price
Chris Leak, QB, Florida (15/1) - Sure the guy is a freakish athlete, and he was the most hyped high school QB in a long time, but it just isn't working out in Florida, and it won't get any better. Urban Meyer's spread offense is not a good fit for Leak, and Meyer has shown that he doesn't have a lot of patience for his QB. The leash will be especially short because freshman QB Tim Tebow is a Meyer recruit who is tailor-made for the spread. I wouldn't even bet that Leak will end the year as a starter, never mind as a Heisman winner.
Drew Tate, QB, Iowa (30/1) - Tate is a nice, solid player, but 2,800 yards and 22 touchdowns won't turn a lot of heads. Especially when he was on a 7-5 team last year, and the team is not as good this year. He has lost two of his top three receivers in Clinton Solomon and Ed Hinkel. They caught 14 of his touchdown passes. Tate will likely have a good year, but certainly not a Heisman-worthy year. Iowa isn't the sexiest school out there, either, and the Heisman is as much about the school as it is about the player.
