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Oscars Predictions - Academy Awards Betting Picks
by T.O. Whenham - 2/17/2010
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The Oscars take place on March 7. Whether you are impressed by the nominated movies or not it should be a good show - Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin are hosting, and they are two funny guys. It's a spectacle to watch every year, but the Oscars are, for our purposes, far more than that - they are also a betting opportunity. Here's a look at the best Oscars predictions and Academy Awards betting picks for this year's event. (Odds are from Bodog)
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Best Picture - The number of nominations was doubled from five to 10 this year. That should theoretically add more uncertainty to the outcome than we have normally had, but that doesn't seem to be the case here. Of the 10 movies, only two offer anything more than a very slight chance of winning. “Avatar,” the massive box office behemoth, is the heavy betting favorite at 4/13. “The Hurt Locker,” the drama about defusing bombs in Iraq, is the second choice at 13/10. No other film is better than 15/1. “Avatar” is a very legitimate winner, and is likely to pull off the win. No real value here.
Best Actor - This race makes the Best Picture look like a tight one. Jeff Bridges, the washed up country singer in “Crazy Heart,” is the ridiculously overwhelming favorite - he's at 4/29. George Clooney is second for “Up in the Air,” but at 17/4 he's not even in the same stratosphere. There's no value here unless you like bank-like returns.
Best Actress - Yet again, here's a race with no drama - or at least very little. Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side” - the very entertaining story of Baltimore Ravens lineman Michael Oher - is the clear favorite at 2/5. The second choice is Meryl Streep, who played Julia Child in “Julie and Julie,” but she's well back at 7/4. The other three nominees aren't in the picture. Sandra Bullock is a well respected actress without Academy recognition up to this point, so this isn't just recognition of a great performance but also a lifetime achievement award of sorts. She'll be tough to beat, but there's clearly no value at this price.
Best Director - There's a pretty compelling storyline here. Kathryn Bigelow, the upstart director of “The Hurt Locker,” is against James Cameron, the director of the two highest earning movies in history who created “Avatar” from the ground up. There's the story of the small, intense drama against the ridiculously expensive Hollywood blockbuster, but that's not the big story here. What really captures attention is that Bigelow and Cameron used to be married - and it reportedly didn't end particularly well. Cameron has gone on to have the bigger career since the split, but it seems like Bigelow is going to get the revenge here. She's at 1/3 to win, while Cameron is second at 5/4. None of the other three nominees are better than 20/1. I feel confident that Bigelow will beat Cameron - this will be where the Academy rewards the very deserving “Hurt Locker” - but there is no value here. This is a disturbing trend.
Best Supporting Actor - Bodog simplified the two supporting categories because they are virtually decided already. In this one they have Christoph Waltz from “Inglorious Basterds” at -1400, and the rest of the field combined at +700. Legitimate odds? It seems like it. Value? Not at all.
Best Supporting Actress - I haven't seen Precious, and I don't really plan to. It seems like it may be the most depressing movie ever made. It's also going to be an Academy Award winner. Mo'Nique is at -1000 in this field, with everyone else at +600. Stop me if you have heard this before - no value here.
The bottom line - Remember when I said that the Oscars were a betting opportunity. I clearly wasn't talking about this year. All six of the major categories are all but decided already. You could make the argument that because they are almost guaranteed you could just bet on them to get the small but safe returns. The problem with that, though, is that you only need one shock to occur and you've lost money. Given the potential profit if all six won (not much ) I don't think it's worth it. If you can't enjoy watching something without betting on it then you probably shouldn't bother watching the Oscars, I guess.
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