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Oscars Predictions - Academy Awards Betting Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 02/05/2009

The Second Commandment clearly states that God isn't a big fan of idols, be they a "carved image - any likeness of anything that is in heaven above or that is in the earth beneath". But just because the Academy Awards and the Oscar statue are clearly a slap in the face of The Big Guy, I can assure you that you shouldn't feel like an evil devil-worshiper destined for the eternal flames of hell. Not at all.

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And since we've established that it's OK to worship the stars and celebrities that focus on this even each year as if it were the staged Second Coming, why don't we go ahead and lay odds down on the Academy Awards and start betting it as well?

The 81th Academy Awards will be held at 8 p.m. EST on Sunday, Feb. 22 at Hollywood's Kodak Theatre and hosted by Wolverine, a.k.a. Hugh Jackman. The Oscars are voted on by specific professionals from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. This group includes actors, directors and writers, and has an eligible voting membership of nearly 5,800. (And yes, God approves, so it's all good.)

According to online sources, the Oscars are the single largest non-sporting event that people wager on throughout the year. While no handle numbers were available I would have to imagine that the $500 maximum bet that most online books impose on these wagers helps to keep it slightly less than say, the World Series or March Madness.

But that doesn't mean that there isn't money to be made on this group of heathens and home wreckers. In the Best Picture category alone there have been some major underdogs that have paid out handsomely over the last several years including the 12-to-1 "Million Dollar Baby" in 2004 or the 6-to-1 "Crash" in 2005. In fact, because there are very few indicators to help determine exact odds on the Academy Awards categories - and the general unpredictability of the thespians that vote for these things - as a handicapper I would have to say that there are a lot of weak lines out there.

Also, betting on the Oscars calls on one of the most basic handicapping tools in a bettor's arsenal: go against the public. The Academy Awards are a classic example of how the sheep mentality benefits the books and cripples the players. The most popular indicator for determining the Oscar betting odds is how these films and glorified flag bearers perform in the Golden Globes, which are held in January, over a month prior to the Oscars. The Golden Globe winners are then generally instilled as heavy, heavy favorites to win the Academy Awards, but over the last 25 years only about HALF of the Globe winners brought home Oscar.

I look at a lot of different spreads and money lines at a host of different Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. But I can honestly say that the most variance I see every year on numbers involves the Oscars. Line shopping is crucial if you're going to wager on the Academy Awards because there are some awful numbers out there. The odds that I used for my breakdowns came from Bodog, Sportsbook.com and The Greek.

For now I'm going to give a list of the nominees in each category and their current odds and then make my Oscars predictions and Academy Awards betting picks Here is a preview of the 81st Academy Awards and advice for Oscars Awards betting:

Below I've broken down the main categories with current odds. At the end of each section I've made a "suggested wager" for each category. And here is a preview of the 81st Academy Awards and advice for Oscars Awards betting:

2009 Academy Awards Betting - Best Film
Slumdog Millionaire (-300)
Curious Case of Benjamin Button (+500)
Milk (+1000)
Frost/Nixon (+2500)
The Reader (+2500)

Skinny: This category is the perfect example of what I mentioned before about wild swings in line value. The lines above are primarily from Bodog. But The Greek actually has "Milk" at +500 and "The Reader" at +1200. "Slumdog" is the clear front-runner and won the Golden Globe for Best Drama. But the last four years the team that won the Globe got blanked in this category at the Oscars. I do know that "Ben Button" is a sucker bet (it really wasn't THAT good) and "The Reader" is a nice dark horse.

Prediction: 1 on "Slumdog Millionaire", 1 on "The Reader"

2009 Academy Awards Betting - Best Actor
Mickey Rourke (-125)
Sean Penn (+115)
Frank Langella (+600)
Brad Pitt (+1500)
Richard Jenkins (+2500)

Skinny: Again, Rourke is the chalk because of his performance at the Golden Globes. But I would definitely not be stunned to see an "upset" here and I think Rourke is a weak favorite. Don't rule out Jenkins, who is a long-time Hollywood character actor and a well-respected artist. His work in "The Visitor" could garner him the sympathy vote. Pitt will not win, and Penn has decent odds. But Frank Langella's performance as Richard Nixon makes him a nice dog.

Prediction: 1 on Langella, 1 on Jenkins

2009 Academy Awards Betting - Best Actress
Kate Winslet (-150)
Anne Hathaway (+300)
Merryl Streep (+350)
Angelina Jolie (+1500)
Melissa Leo (+2500)

Skinny: Kate Winslet seems like strong play for her work in "Revolutionary Road." Except, she wasn't nominated for "Revolutionary Road". This nomination is for her part in "The Reader" - the same role that won her a Best Supporting Actress Golden Globe. Therefore, I think she is a very weak favorite in this category. Keep in mind: this is her fifth Academy Award nomination and she is 0-for-5 bringing home Oscar to this point.

Prediction: 1 on Streep

2009 Academy Awards Betting - Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger (-3000)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (+1500)
Josh Brolin (+2000)
Michael Shannon (+2000)
Robert Downey Jr. (+3000)

Skinny: Forget it. It's Ledger's to lose. And this isn't some sympathy vote because he is deceased. He is head and shoulders above the rest of these performances (although Downey was ridiculously funny in "Tropic Thunder") and deserves to become the first posthumous winner since Peter Finch in 1976. Finch's performance in "Network" (which happens to be one of my Top 5 all-time favorite movies) was amazing and I think that Ledger's chilling psychosis puts him on the same level.

Prediction: No play.

2009 Academy Awards Betting - Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz (-140)
Marisa Tomei (+400)
Viola Davis (+350)
Taraji Henson (+1000)
Amy Adams (+1200)

Skinny: Davis and Adams have both been recognized for their work in the movie "Doubt". And just like two players on the same great college team could split Heisman votes it's going to be tough for either of them to rise above and steal this one. I'm not a Cruz fan in this situation and I actually think Tomei offers a solid underdog price.

Prediction: 1 on Davis, 1 on Tomei