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What would you say if I told you that North Korea over Brazil in the opening match for each team was one of the best wagers you could make in the entire 2010 World Cup?
The two teams will meet at 2:30 p.m. EST on Tuesday, June 15 at Ellis Park in Johannesburg. And North Korea stands about as much of a chance of winning this game as I do of being named Kim Jong-Il’s successor.
However, the No. 1 team in the World, Brazil, is presently favored by 2.5 goals over North Korea. Most soccer observers might even think that spread was a goal or two light, as the Brazilians could easily throw down a 5-0 beating on perhaps the weakest team in the field if they wanted to. But in order for The Samba Kings to cover this spread they would have to do something that they haven’t done since 1970: win a World Cup opener by three or more goals.
A 4-1 win over Czechoslovakia in the 1970 World Cup was the last time that the Brazilians would have covered this spread. Since then it has been one slow start after another, and here are the results of Brazil’s last nine World Cup openers:
1974 – Brazil 0, Yugoslavia 0
1978 – Brazil 1, Sweden 1
1982 – Brazil 1, USSR 0
1986 – Brazil 1, Spain 0
1990 – Brazil 2, Sweden 1
1994 – Brazil 2, Russia 0
1998 – Brazil 2, Scotland 1
2002 – Brazil 2, Turkey 1
2006 – Brazil 1, Croatia 0
In fact, three goals or more has decided just six of Brazil’s last 18 games overall in the group stage.
There isn’t much that you can say that Brazil has struggled to do at the World Cup. They’ve made 18 finals, won five championships, and have been the No. 1 team in the world for a longer period than any other national team since 1990. They are the Gold Standard of world soccer.
But the reality is that they are slow starters. And expecting a blowout win over a North Korea team presently ranked No. 16 in Asia and No. 105 in the world might actually be a taller order than it seems.
Brazil vs. North Korea World Cup Odds:
Brazil is an unplayable favorite to win o the moneyline. They are presently -1000 and Korea is an incredible +2000 to win outright. The Draw pays out +700. As mentioned, the spread in this game is Brazil -2.5 (-115) and North Korea +2.5 (-115). The total is 3.0.
Brazil vs. North Korea Picks and Predictions:
Brazil Will Win If: They show up. This game is the biggest disparity in talent in the group stage. Brazil’s second team would likely beat the Koreans 3-0 (at least) so this one isn’t in doubt. But the historic trends can’t be ignored. Group G is The Group of Death in this year’s tournament. Brazil knows it has tough matches in Ivory Coast and Portugal waiting in the wings. So I could definitely see this team coasting against a clearly inferior opponent.
North Korea Will Win If: Jesus, Mary, Joseph, Buddha, Allah and Mohammed each come down and suit up for this bunch of godless communists. North Korea has no shot at winning this game. The only question is whether or not they can hang within three goals of the Brazilians. In order to do that they would need a superhuman effort from their keeper, a few shots off the crossbar, and for Brazil to get up early and then call off the dogs. But if the Brazilians are interested they can post a 5-0 rout with ease.
Robert Ferringo will be releasing rated selections on the 2010 World Cup this summer. Robert is a long-time soccer aficionado and one of the most exciting handicappers in the industry, and he guarantees a profit through the entirety of the tournament. Sign up today and get on board the Victory Train!
