Now that the last big-dog free-agent (Prince Fielder) has found his greener pastures (in Detroit?), I thought it might be a good time to step back, survey the off-season carnage and peruse the various World Series betting futures boards. After all, pitchers and catchers report in three weeks. And maybe there's a team or two out there I'd like to get down on before the rest of the betting public catches on.
And it looks like we've got plenty of tempting prices to choose from for these 2012 World Series predictions. Usually World Series boards break down with a couple of fairly heavy favorites at the top, a handful of contenders in the upper-middle class and a big group of eventual also-rans. This year, though, the oddsmakers apparently foresee a wide-open affair, with the favorite available for betting at better than 5/1.
Last year the Phillies and Yankees topped World Series boards basically all season, but it was the St. Louis Cardinals who eventually stole away the championship. St. Louis began last season listed at around 12/1 on most World Series futures boards, but when the Cardinals looked like they were going to miss the playoffs in early September, their odds rose, severely at some places. Around this time (as the story goes) one incredibly wise man got down hard on St. Louis to win the Series at a Las Vegas sportsbook at odds of 999/1! St. Louis then rallied to make the postseason and went on to win a memorable World Series.
But enough of last year; Here's a quick look at this year's World Series contenders.
Philadelphia Phillies (11/2 to win the World Series at Bovada)
Philly won a MLB-best 102 games during the regular season last year, but then the Phillies couldn't make it past the Cardinals in the wild-card round in the playoffs. So that's two years in a row the Phillies have dominated during the regular season then come up short in the postseason. Is something missing?
Philly still has a great Big 3 at the top of the rotation, a scary Top 5 in the batting order, and now they've added closer Jonathan Papelbon. There are a couple health questions surrounding 1B Ryan Howard and SP Cole Hamels, but Philly still looks like the class of the National League.
New York Yankees (13/2 at Bovada)
The Yanks won 97 games last year, second-most in the Majors. However, like Philly they couldn't get past the first round of the playoffs as a lack of depth in the rotation took its toll.
Over the off-season, though, New York may have taken care of that problem, trading for Michael Pineda and signing Hiroki Kuroda. They're old at spots, but hey, they were old at spots last year, too.
Los Angeles Angels (+850 at 5Dimes)
This team missed the playoffs for the second straight season last year, so in response they landed the big free-agent catch of this off-season, Sir Albert Pujols. Now, $240 million for a 32-year-old with a bit of mileage on him is a risk, but he sure was super in the playoffs last year.
The Angels also picked up SP CJ Wilson from AL West rival Texas, who'll join Jered Weaver and Dan Haren in the rotation.
The AL West race should be a fun ride this year.
Detroit Tigers (+1,000 at TopBet)
With the signing of Fielder, Detroit saw it's World Series odds lowered from around 15/1 to around 10/1, and as low as 5/1 at some places. But before getting Fielder the Tigers lost Victor Martinez for the season to a knee injury. So Fielder isn't really being added to the lineup, he's being expected to replace a bat that hit .330 last year and knocked in 100 runs. Detroit got to Game 6 of the ALCS last year, but are they really that much better right now?
Boston Red Sox (10/1 at Bovada)
Talk about an implosion. Boston blew a nine-game lead in September and missed the playoffs last year, then lost manager Terry Francona, then had its clubhouse exposed as an asylum where the inmates ran the show, leading to mass player movement both in and out.
The big hurt, though, came when closer Papelbon left for Philly. And is Bobby Valentine really the answer?
Texas Rangers (+1,100 at 5Dimes)
The two-time defending American League Champions got within a strike of a World Series title last fall, but destiny denied them. This year Texas lost its No. 1 starter in Wilson, but added Japanese import Yu Darvish and RP Joe Nathan.
I just wonder if the Rangers didn't miss their big chance.
San Francisco Giants (+2,000 at 5Dimes)
The Giants still have a great starting foursome, but they'll need a complete comeback from C Buster Posey.
Atlanta Braves (+2,100 at 5Dimes)
The Braves suffered through their own collapse last fall, and they have some injury concerns going into this year. Playing in the same division as Philadelphia doesn't help their chances, either.
Tampa Bay Rays (+2,200 at 5Dimes)
The Rays made a marvelous comeback last year to make the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons. This year they've added a couple of bats and bolstered the bullpen. And you know they'll play with some heart.
Miami Marlins (+2,300 at 5Dimes)
A new name, a new stadium, and a renewed interest in winning make Miami an intriguing outfit for this year.
The Marlins have added SS Jose Reyes, SPs Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano and RP Heath Bell, and if Josh Johnson can come back healthy they'll be dangerous. But Ozzie Guillen and Zambrano in the same dugout? Better keep the fire extinguishers handy.
St. Louis Cardinals (+2,300 at 5Dimes)
The Cardinals are the defending champs, but what are their chances of repeating without Pujols and LaRussa? Slim at best.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+3,000 at TopBet)
Arizona surprised almost everybody last year in winning the NL West in their first season under Manager Kirk Gibson.
Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson make for a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, and most of the rest of the pieces remain in place.
The Rest
Cincinnati (+3,000 at TopBet)
Milwaukee (+3,300 at 5Dimes)
Colorado (+3,800 at 5Dimes)
Chicago Cubs (+4,000 at 5Dimes)
LA Dodgers (+4,500 at 5Dimes)
Toronto (+4,500 at 5Dimes)
Washington (+5,000 at TopBet)
Chicago White Sox (+6,000 at TopBet)
Cleveland (+7,500 at 5Dimes)
Kansas City (+8,500 at 5Dimes)
Oakland (+9,000 at 5Dimes)
Minnesota (+9,500 at 5Dimes)
Pittsburgh (+10,000 at TopBet)
New York Mets (+10,000 at TopBet)
Seattle (+15,000 at 5Dimes)
San Diego (+12,500 at 5Dimes)
Baltimore (+12,500 at 5Dimes)
Houston (+17,500 at 5Dimes)
2012 World Series Futures Picks and Predictions
Odds of 11/2 and 13/2 on the two favorites in this race are very tempting, but in search of something more I'll back three teams (standard unit play) at higher prices. San Francisco won the Series two years ago, and still has that pitching, so at 20/1 the Giants look worthy of a bet. Also out west Arizona may have played above its head last year, but I like their overall makeup. And at odds of 30/1 they stand a good chance of at least returning to the playoffs. And over in the American League how can I not take a chance with feisty Tampa Bay at +2,200?
Bovada Sportsbook •
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