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World Series Predictions
by T.O. Whenham - 9/3/2009
Back in February I sat down and made some predictions on which World Series futures provided value and which ones really didn't. There were some good picks - I boldly supported the Yankees and Phillies, said the Cubs were a terrible deal a 7/1, and tabbed the Giants as a nice longshot at 40/1. There were also some disasters as well - most notably, I said 'it's not hard to like the Mets'. Oops. What I really meant there was that it is really hard to like anything at all about the Mets. Now that we are into September and the season is nearing an end, let's revisit those World Series predictions to see how things have changed and what looks interesting now. For kicks, I will revisit all eight teams I talked about in February. (Odds are from Bodog):
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New York Yankees (12/5) - Before the season the Yankees were the favorites to win it all, but there were questions that had to be answered. They've answered most of them - their pitching is good enough to take them well into the playoffs - especially at the front end, they can score runs at will, and they can play at home and on the road. If you liked the team at 5/2 before the season then you have to love that they have only fallen slightly from that level despite easily having their division wrapped up, and also likely being sure to have the best record in the whole league. If you like to bet favorites then this is certainly not a favorite to pass on.
Chicago Cubs (80/1) - The Cubs have obviously been one of the biggest disappointments in the league, and there is no clearer way to see that than to look at the movement in futures odds - they were 7/1 in February. There is nothing that has gone right with this team, and if we've learned one thing it's that Lou Piniella makes a much better broadcaster at this point than he does a coach.
New York Mets (1500/1) - This just makes me laugh - this team was also 7/1 in February. We are way beyond finding excuses for this bunch of tremendous underachievers. They've proven that you can't win when every meaningful player on your roster gets hurt, but they have also shown us that no amount of money can overcome bad coaching, bad management, and a general disinterest in high achievement. This is a sick organization that badly needs to be blown up and started from scratch, but I have real doubts that that will happen.
Boston Red Sox (6/1) - This is a clear sign that there is no depth in the American League this year. Boston was 15/2 back in February. Since then they have been inconsistent, the bottom end of their rotation changes seemingly every day, and their biggest stars haven't played like that. Despite that, the odds indicate that this team has a better chance of winning it all now than they did before the season. They seem likely to make the playoffs now, but that's really the only thing they have in their favor compared to the expectations we had for them.
Los Angeles Angels (15/2) - This team's futures odds have been like a roller coaster. They were 11/1 in February, they climbed from there after a terrible start to the season, and they have since been falling consistently as the team proves that they are again the class of the AL West. There are still lingering questions - do they have enough pitching or hitting depth, and can they finally find a way to beat an AL East team in the playoffs.
Philadelphia Phillies (9/2) - The Phillies seemed like a bargain in February when they were at 11/1. Now they seem like an underlay at 9/2. They obviously have the playoff experience to get it done, their lineup is doing their job, and their pitching has been solid. I'm still not sure they justify their price given the strength of the rest of the NL and their somewhat streakish play. If I had taken them in February at 11/1 I'd be doing cartwheels, though.
Tampa Bay Rays (30/1) - Tampa Bay was 12/1 in February, but that made me uneasy. Now it's clear that that was a good feeling. The team isn't out of contention for that last Wild Card spot yet, but they don't seem to be playing like a contender. Or, more accurately, they aren't acting like a contender - contenders don't sell off one of their best pitchers at the end of August regardless of the impact it has on their bottom line now or into the future.
Upon completion of this MLB feature view Doc's baseball schedules page. Our baseball betting systems page is also a must read when studding MLB baseball. If you plan on betting MLB you'll also want to read our baseball gambling lines page. For more MLB articles and free picks visit our homepage and view the "Doc's Daily Medicine" section.
San Francisco Giants (20/1) - I believed in the Giants as a Wild Card contender in February when they were 40/1, and I still believe in them now. They are on the outside looking in right now, but they are right behind the Rockies, and I have a very hard time believing that the Cinderellas from Colorado can keep this incredibly unlikely run going for another month. The Giants have the best one-two punch at the top of a rotation in the league, and they have some players who know how to hit. They probably don't have enough offense to win it all this year, but this is a team that is only going to get better, and anything can happen once the playoffs start.
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