Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training today, marking the official start of the 2010 Major League Baseball season. While most bettors are still nursing a football hangover or are binging on some college basketball mania MLB lingers under the radar. However, bettors may be overlooking one of the best long-term investments in all of sports betting: 2010 MLB futures bets.
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In a few weeks I’ll take a look at some MLB season win totals bets, but today I wanted to break down the best, worst, and most intriguing MLB World Series futures bets on the board and offer some World Series predictions.
Now, baseball is one of the more unique futures betting opportunities because there is very, very rarely an “out of nowhere” team that wins the World Series. And by “rarely” I mean that it has probably happened just twice in the last 15 years.
While there are a variety of things that you need to focus on when trying to handicap an MLB team’s long-term earning potential with a World Series futures bet (pitching, hitting, front office flexibility, experience, divisional strength, etc.) I think that there are two hallmarks of what makes a good “value” play on a futures wager. First, you have to think about which teams are going to the playoffs. Once the postseason starts all bets are off and anything can happen. So before you think about winning the Fall Classic you have to find a team that you think has strong odds to simply make the Second Season.
Second, you have to think long-term about your long-term investment. By that I mean you have to think about the odds that you will have now compared to what you’ll be looking at in October. I can guarantee you that in October the Red Sox are going to be worse than a 6-to-1 bet to win it all. And you won’t find 30-to-1 anywhere come playoff time. Also, if you can identify a low odds team that can make it to the World Series then you can set yourself up for an exceptionally profitable hedging situation.
With that in mind, here is a look at some 2010 MLB futures odds including the best, worst, and most intriguing futures and odds to win the 2010 World Series:
Best Bets:
New York Yankees (3-to-1)
It’s good to be king. And right now I get the sense that their pitching staff, paired with their bench hitters, could win the NL Central. The Yankees may have improved themselves over the winter with the additions of Curtis Granderson – a big-game player that should thrive in New York – and Javy Vasquez, a proven innings-eater. The bullpen still isn’t as strong as you’d like to see but it was good enough to do the trick last year. The biggest problem for the Yankees heading into this year is complacency. But I think that a rabid fan base and zealous ownership will keep them from resting on any laurels.
Boston (6-to-1)
Injuries and what seemed like a lot of musical chairs both in the rotation and throughout the lineup really zapped the Red Sox of any momentum heading into last October. But make no mistake: this team could very easily earn another championship. They will miss Jason Bay but having Victor Martinez for a full season will be nice. And strong supporting parts like Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre (who could have a monster year), and Jeremy Hermida should compensate for his loss. Winning the World Series is all about pitching and there is not a better staff, front to back, than Boston’s now that John Lackey is in the mix…as a No. 3 starter.
Philadelphia (6-to-1)
Much like the Yankees and Red Sox, Philadelphia has the perfect model. They have a great core group of stars that are experienced in winning titles and they went out and actually improved their team despite incredible success over the past few seasons. The Phillies have been in the World Series each of the past two seasons and now added Roy Halladay at the top of their rotation. Halladay should absolutely devastate the National League considering the eye-popping numbers he has put while facing loaded lineups like Boston and New York over the past decade. Much like the Yankees, the bullpen is a potential Achilles heel. But, again, after two straight N.L. Titles and a World Series ring it’s obviously been good enough.
St. Louis (8-to-1)
It’s scary to think about the numbers that Matt Holiday and Albert Pujols may put up batting 3-4 for a whole season together. And the Cardinals are another team not far removed from a World Series title (2006) so it’s almost expected that they will be in the mix in October. Their success or failure hinges on the health of their starting pitching. Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny are good enough to get it done. But that is if they can hold up for 30-35 starts apiece. I think that the odds should be closer to 10-to-1 for this team but the bottom line is that they are one of the best two or three teams in the N.L. and will be playing meaningful games again this postseason.
Value Bets:
Atlanta (15-to-1)
Normally I don’t like to make a long-term investment on a team that’s biggest question mark is its ability to stay healthy. But I could make an exception for the Braves. They have one of the strongest starting rotations in the National League and they have pieced together a more-than-capable bullpen. But a lot rests on hitters that have had significant injury issues in the last two years (Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus, Brian McCann). Also, I wonder if the front office will be willing to take on payroll if the Braves need something for a stretch run. But this is Bobby Cox’s swan song with Atlanta and you can’t underestimate the impact that will have on this group. A nice blend of youth and experience and, if they stay healthy, Atlanta is the No. 2 team in the East. Not great odds, but worth a look.
Colorado (20-to-1)
Over the last three years the Rockies have had multiple prolonged stretches – I’m talking months – when they were by far and away the best team in baseball. The core of this team lost in the World Series just three years ago and it seems like only a matter of time before they make the next step. Unfortunately they haven’t added much to last year’s 92-win team. But if Jeff Francis comes back strong from a season lost to injury that will give them a big boost. And if they can find another bat – something the Rockies never seem to lack – then Colorado will once again be involved in meaningful fall baseball.
San Francisco (30-to-1)
Starting pitching is money in the MLB and the Giants are flush. This team has a dominating front end of the rotation and a stronger-than-you’d-think bullpen. Also, I think a full healthy season in San Fran will help Freddy Sanchez get back to his All-Star form and if Mark DeRosa can provide some pop then all of a sudden this Giants lineup becomes formidable with a host of quality veteran bats. The front office has seemed willing to make moves in-season and if the Giants can break out of the N.L. West logjam they will be a dangerous team in October.
Minnesota (30-to-1)
The Twins have been doing as much as their modest payroll will allow in order to get this team over the hump. They are moving into a brand new stadium and the front office is hoping to build off the buzz of last year’s playoff club. This group has won 87 or more games in three of the past four years and been to the playoffs twice, so they wouldn’t be an “out of nowhere” team. Is their starting pitching good enough to win a title? No. And neither is their bullpen. But if one or two guys step up, or if they are able to make a move to add someone at the top of the rotation, then all of a sudden the Twins have two MVP’s, a veteran group of winners, and a great coach and system that could get hot. It’s a stretch, but not bad odds at all.
Seattle (50-to-1)
What you’ll notice with these “value” teams is that most of them rely on the hallmarks of small market baseball: excellent pitching and small-ball offense. In just one season Don Wakamatsu was successful incorporating a Japanese-style or preparation and play into the Majors. And he did so with success, as the M’s won 85 games and were sniffing out the postseason late in the year. Now they have added Cliff Lee to go with Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard at the top of the rotation, giving Seattle a staff that is good enough to bounce a New York or Boston in a short series. Seattle’s payroll is right around $100 million this year and the brass seems willing to make moves. And if some high-potential guys (Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley) pan out this group could nickel and dime its way into the postseason.
Sucker Bets:
Tampa Bay (12-to-1)
Hey, Tampa had a great run…two years ago. But there is no sneaking up on the Red Sox or Yankees this year and the bottom line is that neither their pitching nor their lineup is strong enough to usurp their East rivals. And if you can’t even get into the playoffs you certainly aren’t going to win the World Series. This is a terrible value.
L.A. Angels (14-to-1)
Look, the Angels are the Colts or the Spurs of Major League Baseball. Every year people just kind of take their success for granted or look for reasons why they will take the proverbial step back this year. And then by mid-season everyone looks foolish while these teams are among the best in the sport. There is no arguing with the Angels model and their track record for success (94 or more wins in four of five years and a 97-win average over the last three years). But all of their regular season success had led to just one title this decade (not unlike the Colts). This is an amazing regular season team. But I don’t think they have enough elite talent to win a championship.
Chicago Cubs (14-to-1)
They are the Cubs. What else do you need? If they didn’t get the job done last year, then lost a bunch of quality players in the offseason without adding anything in return, how could you possibly expect more out of them in 2010? At this point I think the postseason is a stretch and these odds are a farce. The books have to set them this low though because they get such a heavy volume of “novelty” bets on Chicago that if the Cubs ever do win the World Series the books will take a bath.
N.Y. Mets (20-to-1)
This team is a train wreck. Last year their season was sabotaged by a comical stretch of injuries unlike any that I can remember seeing. But even if everyone bounces back healthy – a big “if” with guys like Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado – I still think that they are clearly No. 3 in their own division behind Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Mets don’t have quality starting pitching (again, it’s nothing but huge question marks) and the bullpen is a mess after several years of being ignored. There is simply no way that this is a good wager and it is, in my opinion, the absolute worst bet on the board. It’s going to be another long, low-scoring, frustrating year in Flushing this year and this is a sucker’s ticket.
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Detroit (24-to-1)
There clearly isn’t much “buzz” about the Tigers stepping up and winning the championship. But these odds still jumped out to me as being way off. Right now there are 12 teams with better odds than Detroit. So if you are the No. 13 team in a 30-team league, pretty much the definition of mediocre, then your odds need to be about double this. They lost a ton of talent in free agency (Edwin Jackson, Granderson, Fernando Rodney, Jarrod Washburn, etc.) without replacing it. And this franchise definitely doesn’t have the money to make a serious move for a stretch run (their payroll is already comically maxed out as it is). They will be in the shuffle in the A.L. Central but, again, it’s a giant leap from “they could win the Central” to “they can get past the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, Phillies and/or Cardinals to win it all”.