UFC 83 Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 03/29/2008
The UFC heads north of the border for the first time on April 19 when it invades Montreal. The Bell Center, the home of the Montreal Canadiens, sold out instantly and the crowd will be rabid. They probably would be anyway, but they'll be especially insane because Georges St. Pierre, their hometown hero, will be defending his title in the main event. It should be crazy. Here's Doc's UFC 83 predictions (odds are from Bodog):
Georges St. Pierre (-450) vs. Matt Serra (+300) - It's obvious that St. Pierre will get a huge boost from the home crowd, and the odds reflect that. It's important to note, though, that St. Pierre would be a significant favorite regardless of where the fight was held. The fight is for the UFC Welterweight championship, which St. Pierre currently holds on an interim basis. Serra held the belt but was unable to defend it against Matt Hughes at UFC 79 due to injury, so St. Pierre stepped in and won.
It's how Serra won the belt in the first place that makes this fight so interesting. St. Pierre was the titleholder, but he took Serra, an 11/1 underdog, lightly at UFC 69 and was shocked with a first round loss. St. Pierre won his first belt from the same guy as he did his second - Matt Hughes - so this really is an incestuous division.
The one thing you can be absolutely certain of is that St. Pierre is not going to take Serra lightly this time around. He blamed that first loss on personal issues and fired his manager and ditched much of his entourage. He also committed to training like he never had before, and is more fit and prepared than ever before.
The biggest challenge Serra faces is, despite the fact that he will be without a fan in the building, is that he is almost certain to be rusty. That win over St. Pierre was the last fight Serra had, so he has been inactive for a year, and injured for part of that time. It's hard to see how this won't be a one-sided battle, or how Serra presents much challenge given that he was 11/1 last time and St. Pierre is bigger and better than he was then. An upset here would truly be a shock.
Rich Franklin (-350) vs. Travis Lutter (+275) - Travis Lutter is most memorable for a stupid mistake he made. He was due to fight Anderson Silva for the Middleweight title in February of 2007, but he weighed in too heavy for the fight, and it was fought as a non-title match instead. Lutter predictably lost, but he deserves credit for the fact that he didn't get knocked out by the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world despite being in a position to suffer that fate several times. In other words, he is tough. He hasn't fought since then, but he has been training very hard, and will be at his best for this fight.
He'll have to be. Franklin is a far superior striker to Lutter. He also has one of the more bizarre backgrounds in the sport - he has a Master's Degree in education and is a former math teacher. He, too, lost to Anderson Silva last time out, but there is no shame in that. Franklin will try to keep the fight off the ground so that he can maintain his edge. It seems likely that Lutter would gain the edge if they do hit the ground. How you bet this fight will depend on who you think can impose their will on the fight. Either way, Lutter is certainly a more attractive underdog than Serra.
Michael Bisping (-330) vs. Charles McCarthy (+260) - This is another Middleweight fight, though it isn't nearly as interesting as the last one. Like Lutter, McCarthy really needs to get this one to the ground if he wants to have a chance to win. Bisping is far superior when the two fighters are standing up. Bisping is moving down to this weight class after a split decision loss to Rashad Evans, and it should be a good move for him given his size. It's hard to see how McCarthy isn't outclassed here.
Mac Danzig (-600) vs. Mark Bocek (+400) - Bocek is far less experienced than Danzig, but the Middleweight will have an advantage from the crowd because he is also a Canadian. The story here is the same as the last two fights - the favorite is the superior striker, but the underdog could have a chance if the fight hits the ground. Bocek isn't proven as a fighter, but he is a proven grappler. Danzig is a deserving favorite because of his experience, but longshot bettors will have to keep an eye on the intriguing Bocek.
Looking forward - Tito Ortiz is probably beyond his time, but fans of the Huntington Beach Bad Boy will probably want to jump on him now for his fight at UFC 84 before the odds move too much. He's fighting the undefeated Lyoto Machida and is the +160 underdog. that's probably a pretty accurate price, but it is likely that it will get bet down by the public because they love the guy.