UFC 88 Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 09/05/2008
Another in the relentless march of UFC events is upon us. On Saturday, Sept. 6 in Atlanta it is UFC 88: Breakthrough. The name is kind of silly this time, and the card isn't the most exciting we have seen in a while. Still, even an average UFC card is better than a lot of things, and there is no better way to cap off a long and hopefully profitable day of college football. Here's a look at the pay-per-view portion of the card (odds are from Bodog):
Chuck Liddell (-290) vs. Rashad Evans (+230) - Liddell was the king of the world after he beat Tito Ortiz in 2006. But then he lost twice, and needed a decision to beat Wanderlei Silva. Suddenly it's hard to know if he is a star, or just a former star. The stakes are high here for Lidell. If he wins, he will likely get a shot at Forest Griffin's light heavyweight title. Nothing helps your credibility more than a belt. To get the title shot he has to get past the undefeated Evans, who would also like a shot at Griffin. Evans is coming off a controversial split decision with Michael Bisping. Liddell is favored because he is a much better striker and a more powerful puncher. To counter that, Evans will have to borrow a page from the playbook teammate Keith Jardine used to beat Liddell - stay outside and pick your spots to jump in and land a blow. Evans is faster, so that has a chance of working. Evans will also want to go for the takedown - something he does very well. The problem is that there is perhaps no one in MMA better at defending the takedown than Liddell.
This fight was originally supposed to happen in June, but a hamstring injury caused Liddell to delay it. It is supposedly completely healed, but Evans will be aggressive early to test it. That aggressiveness is typical of Evans, and shouldn't be a real concern for Liddell as long as his body stands up. I figure it will, and that makes Chuck a worthy favorite.
Pick: Chuck Liddell.
Rich Franklin (-265) vs. Matt Hamill (+205) - I think that Franklin is an under-appreciated fighter. He has only lost twice in the UFC, and both of those results have been at the hands of super-freak Anderson Silva. There's no shame in that. Franklin is the smartest guy in the UFC, and he always finds a way to take advantage of his opponents. He's moving up from middlewight to light heavyweight for this fight. Hamill comes from The Ultimate Fighter 3 where he was a disciple of Tito Ortiz. He's 4-1 in the UFC, but lost to his only significant opponent, Michael Bisping. He's a likable fighter with some potential, but Franklin is far more experienced and much better on his feet. Hamill shouldn't embarrass himself, but he's likely in over his head.
Pick: Rich Franklin.
Dan Henderson (-235) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+190) - Henderson is a two-time champion in Pride, but he has lost both of his fights since returning to the UFC. There's no shame in his losses - Quinton Jackson and Anderson Silva. Still, I can't fight the feeling that Henderson's best years might be behind him. If that's true then he could be in trouble against Palhares. At 28, Palhares in 10 years younger than Henderson. He's also the king of the submission, having won five-straight fights by that route. If the fight gets to the ground then Palhares stands a pretty good chance of locking on a submission and earning a win that could put him in the title picture. This is only his second UFC fight, though, and a big step up in class. Henderson will have to exploit that relative inexperience and try to land one of his deadly punches to end it. At these odds, I'm willing to bet that he won't be able to.
Pick: Rousimar Palhares.
Nate Marquardt (-150) vs. Martin Kampmann (+120) - Marquardt is coming of a loss to Thales Leites. That's deceptive, though - he was clearly the better fighter, but lost thanks to being penalized on two occasions. He was good enough to get a title shot against Anderson Silva (like everyone else, he lost), and he's a talented and well-rounded fighter. Kampman is riding a nine-fight winning streak that includes a win over Leites. This fight is important, as the winner stands a good chance of getting a title shot against Silva at some point. The fight should be reasonably evenly matched. That means we have to look for an edge for one fighter. The one that stands out is takedowns - Marquardt is clearly superior. With all else mostly equal, that determines my pick.
Pick: Nate Marquardt.
Karo Parysian (-220) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+180) - I'm not sure what makes this fight worthy of being on pay-per-view. Parysian has a respectable 8-3 record in UFC, but he was absolutely destroyed by Thiago Alves last time out. Luckily for him, he has a much more manageable opponent this time around. Or at least that's the theory, but I'm not sure I buy it. Yoshida has just one UFC fight under his belt, but it was a solid victory. He has won nine a row overall, including the Cage Force welterweight tournament. The interesting component of this fight is that both guys have judo backgrounds - something reasonably rare for successful UFC fighters. To me, Parysian is a fighter who hasn't looked sharp in a few fights, while Yoshida is a somewhat unknown but intriguing prospect. At these prices I'll take a shot on the new fighter.
Pick: Yoshiyuki Yoshida.