UFC 89 Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 10/08/2008
UFC returns to the UK for their next event when UFC 89 takes place in Birmingham, England. This card holds far less star power and intrigue than their typical events. So much so, in fact, that they are giving this one away for free instead of making it a pay-per-view. It will be shown live on TV in Britain, and on tape delay in North America on Spike. Because of the tape delay, you should be able to make a few bucks from your stupid friends who will be amazed by how you seem to know the outcome of every match as it happens. This card might not be as interesting or exciting as most, but there are still odds available, and any sporting event you can bet on has real merit. It's a pretty good sign of the esteem this card is held in that the event is just over a week away and the books only have lines set for two of the fights. We'll look at those two fights in some detail, then I'll just provide picks for the others in case you find odds somewhere. All odds are from Bodog:
Michael Bisping (-200) vs. Chris Leben (+160) - This is the main event, which goes a long way to explaining why this isn't a pay-per-view. It's not that it won't be a good fight. It's just that casual fans won't know much about either guy. It makes sense that Bisping tops this card, though, because he is the closest thing to a British star the organization has. Bisping has fought two top-level opponents--Matt Hammill and Rashad Evans--and both ended in split decisions. He won the first and lost the latter. Bisping is a technical fighter. He doesn't often earn a knockout, but he is strong on the ground. Leben is a classic brawler, though he has shown signs of adding depth to his game in recent bouts. Leben just doesn't get knocked out - he is tough. He also has the ability to earn a submission on the ground whether on top or below. Leben has won his two fights impressively. I think he presents nice value here at his price.
Pick: Chris Leben
Keith Jardine (+150) vs. Brandon Vera (-180) - Vera started his career with eight-straight wins before dropping two straight to Tim Sylvia and Fabricio Werdum. After the second loss he dropped from heavyweight to light heavyweight, which is where this fight will occur. In his only fight at the new weight he beat Reese Andy, but the win wasn't nearly as convincing as most thought it should have been. The likely culprit was the strain of losing the weight. Now he is in much better shape, and the weight won't be a problem. That means Jardine should have his hands full. Last time out Jardine was thoroughly demolished by Wanderlei Silva in just 36 seconds at UFC 84. Before that, though, he had surprised many by beating Chuck Liddell in a split decision. That inconsistency is standard for Jardine. In his two previous fights he beat Forest Griffin convincingly, then was knocked out by Houston Alexander in the first round. That makes Jardine a nightmare for bettors - tough both to trust and to discount. He hasn't shown a lot of ability to handle muay thai, though, and that is what Vera will throw at him. That's what makes Vera the favorite, and also my pick.
Pick: Brandon Vera
Rameau Sokoudjou vs. Luis Cane - If odds are set, Cane will likely be the underdog. He has looked better recently, though, and I like his chances of the upset.
Pick: Luis Cane
Paul Taylor vs. Chris Lytle - Lytle loses more than is ideal, but he always shows piles of heart. Taylor just doesn't show much.
Pick: Chris Lytle
Marcus Davis vs. Paul Kelly - Davis is coming off a loss to Mike Swick, but there is no shame in that, and he won six in a row before that. Kelly shows ability, but he is raw - this is just his second UFC fight. I have to go with experience here.
Pick: Marcus Davis