UFC 91 Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 11/07/2008
For the first time in a while, a UFC event is headlined by a fight between superstars that will have appeal beyond the hardcore fans of MMA. That's not to say that recent UFC cards have been bad - far from it. It's just that they have featured fights that are more for the converted fans than for the general public. UFC 91, taking place in Las Vegas on Nov. 15, is different. The main event between Randy Couture and Brock Lesnar brings together one of the best known and successful fighters in history to face one of the sport's biggest up and comers, a guy who gained fame as a WWE heavyweight champion. How you view this fight turning out says a lot about what you think about MMA and the directions it is, and could be, heading in.
UFC 91 Predictions
Randy Couture (-105) vs. Brock Lesnar (-125) - As the odds suggest, this is a wide-open fight. A compelling argument can be made for either fighter. We'll get to that in a moment, but first, some background.
The last couple of years have been tumultuous for Couture. After losing to Chuck Liddell for the second time in February of 2006 he retired from the sport. That's not a bad idea for a guy who was 42 at the time. Like all good fighting retirements, though, it didn't last. He came back in March of last year to defeat Tim Sylvia and claim the heavyweight title for the third time. Couture successfully defended against Gabriel Gonzaga in August, but he suffered a broken arm in that fight. That's when all heck broke loose. Couture severed all ties with the UFC over claims that he was being underpaid, and that the organization wouldn't arrange a fight for him with Fedor Emilianenko. There were public statements, all sorts of grandstanding, and a lawsuit or two, but the final result is that the parties made up, and the 45-year-old Couture has a three-fight contract with the UFC.
Brock Lesnar has been in the public eye for less than a decade, but it has been a varied and interesting time. He was a 2000 NCAA wrestling champion. From there he went to the WWE. He was a three-time heavyweight champion, and was the youngest man ever to hold that title. His time there lasted until 2004 when he decided he wanted to be a football player. Never mind that he wasn't a football player. He spent training camp with the Minnesota Vikings, but was cut before the season. That was followed by some time out of the spotlight, a lawsuit against the WWE, and a brief period wrestling in Japan. In 2006 he announced his intention to turn to MMA. His debut was for K-1 in 2007, and it was successful. He lost his first fight in the UFC to Frank Mir, then bounced back to earn a decision over Heath Herring. That brings us to where we are today.
This fight, beyond the interest it holds itself, has high stakes. The winner here will fight the winner of the Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira - Frank Mir fight at UFC 92 for the heavyweight championship.
The fight gives us a lot to consider. Lesnar is huge, strong and scary. He's more of a physical specimen than Couture has seen in a while. That doesn't mean that the old guy is outclassed, though. He has fought 24 times against the best fighters in the world (except, of course, Emelianenko), so he has the knowledge and savvy to more than hold his own. He's also much more experienced than Lesnar on the ground, and will probably be more strategically prepared for the fight. There are questions whether either fighter has the stamina to last five rounds in what should be a grueling contest.
All other things being equal, Lesnar would likely be the pick. He's just younger and stronger. The main goal, though, is value, and that doesn't lie with the former wrestler. He wouldn't be the favorite against a wily veteran given his record if he weren't so well known. Couture could be in tough here, but he's a bargain at this price.
Prediction: Randy Couture.
Kenny Florian (-180) vs. Joe Stevenson (+150) - Florian has won five in a row since a loss to Sean Sherk in 2006. Stevenson lost to B.J. Penn, but bounced back with a win over Gleison Tibau. Florian has an edge here, but I'm not sure that it is as big as the odds suggest. Stevenson is very tough, and his guillotine choke is one of the fiercest submission moves out there. That makes Stevenson a solid value at this price.
Prediction: Joe Stevenson.
Amir Sadollah vs. Nick Catone - Sadollah was the winner of TUF 7, and this is his first fight since then. The UFC has a lot invested in the success of Sadollah, so they have put him against a guy making his UFC debut. Sadollah should be fine here.
Prediction:: Amir Sadollah.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Josh Hendricks - Gonzaga has had a rough year since his loss to Couture, but he has still been fighting against top competition. Hendricks hasn't fought in a year, and he has been toiling in the minor leagues of MMA. This one shouldn't be that close.
Prediction:: Gabriel Gonzaga.