UFC 92 Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 12/23/2008
UFC has a Christmas present for us. It's going to be a couple of days late, but it's more than worth the wait. UFC 92, taking place on pay-per-view from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas on Dec. 27, has the potential to be one of the best UFC events we have seen. It has not one, not two, but three main events. Here's a look (all odds are from Bodog):
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (+105) vs. Wanderlei Silva (-135) - This match features two of the bigger names in the light heavyweight division, but both of them have to prove that they are still relevant. Rampage lost his championship belt to Forrest Griffin in July, then he lost his mind. He led the police on a wild chase in a monster truck with his picture painted on the side, acted dangerously crazy, spent some time in a mental ward, and was charged with two felonies and three misdemeanors. It was a heck of a week for the former champ. This is his first return to action, so it's our first chance to see where his head is at, and whether the meltdown was temporary or not. Silva's sanity isn't the issue - winning is. He beat Keith Jardine last time out, but that followed three straight losses. Silva is 32, and he has 41 fights under his belt, so he would have all the excuses he would need to justify his decline if that's what is happening.
These two have a history. This is the third time they have met, though the first since 2004. Silva won with a TKO in the first match, and then got a knockout in the rematch. In both matches, Silva had an obvious advantage - he's a much better striker. There is a difference, though - Jackson is a much-improved fighter since those fights. He won the UFC title, won the PRIDE title, and merged the two. Silva may still have an edge, but it will be a smaller edge than it was when they last met.
I'm nervous about both fighters. Silva might not have a lot of miles on his engine, and Rampage might be crazy. In the end, then, it has to come down to value. I feel a lot more comfortable with the underdog's price than the favorite here.
Pick: Jackson.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (-350) vs. Frank Mir (+275) - This is the fight that pits the coaches of the last season of "The Ultimate Fighter" together as happens each time the series concludes. There is more on the line than that, though. The winner of the fight will be the Interim Heavyweight Champion, and will next fight Brock Lesnar to unify the heavyweight belts. Mir's last fight was against Lesnar, and it was a win. That's deceiving, though - Mir got a submission, but he was getting a beating from Lesnar at the time. Mir wouldn't be anywhere close to a favorite against Lesnar if they fought again despite the last fight.
Nogueira has won his last three fights. The odds suggest that he is likely to extend that streak to four fights. I agree. Mir is a decent fighter, but he hasn't been as good since he had a serious motorcycle accident in 2004. Nogueira is a better striker, and his jiu jitsu is better. I'd love to find a way to back Mir at his price, but I just can't see one.
Pick: Nogueira.
Forrest Griffin (-120) vs. Rashad Evans (-110) - This match is for the Light Heavyweight Championship, and as the odds tell us it is a wide-open affair. Griffin is defending the title he won from Rampage Jackson for the first time, and he is putting a three-match winning streak on the line. He's a good, old-fashioned brawler, and he is as fun to watch as anyone in the UFC. The win over Jackson was a bit of a surprise, but it was no fluke. It remains to be seen, though, how Griffin responds to the pressure and increased scrutiny of being the champ. Evans has had a pretty easy year. He has fought just once since last November, and that was a stunningly easy knockout of the washed up Chuck Liddell. Evans' record might not be the most active out there, but there is one important thing it is missing - a loss. The fighter is undefeated, with 12 wins and a draw in 13 outings.
There are a couple of things that seem pretty likely with this fight - it's not going to end quickly, and both guys are going to be beat up badly by the end of it all. With the prices relatively close, it comes down to just picking the winner. I think that's going to be Griffin. I respect Evans a lot, but I would pick Griffin in a street fight, and this is going to be close to that.
Pick: Griffin.