UFC 97 Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 04/15/2009
UFC returns to Montreal for the second time, but it looks much different than the first. Last time the draw was hometown hero Georges St. Pierre, and he delivered in thrilling fashion. This time we have a one-sided main event, albeit one featuring Anderson Silva, the biggest name in MMA. We also have a washed up superstar, Chuck Liddell, trying to regain some glory at the top of the undercard. It won't be the best UFC event ever, but it certainly has enough going on to be interesting. Here's a look with my UFC 97 predictions, with odds from Bodog:
Anderson Silva (-625) vs. Thales Leites (+425) - It's not a new thing for a top fighter to be put up against a badly outmatched opponent to further increase the reputation of the champion, but that seems like more of a tactic for boxing than MMA. That's what we seem to have here, though. Leites has only lost once, but he is as one-dimensional as a fighter can be. Leites is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter, and Silva can respond with decent BJJ himself. The Spider is stronger, faster, more versatile, and just plain better. This one could get ugly. Or at least it would if it lasted very long, but I don't see it getting out of the second round. With this win Silva will set a new record for the most consecutive wins in the UFC with nine.
Pick: Anderson Silva
Chuck Liddell (-200) vs. Mauricio Rua (+160) - Liddell long ago gave up on the concept of going out on top, so I guess he might as well keep fighting forever. All in all, this is a pretty good spot for him. Rua has looked pretty lousy lately, and seems to have some real problems. Liddell hasn't won his last two either, and he hasn't really come that close, but he has looked much more like a good fighter than Rua has. This is the kind of fight I would have much rather have seen about four years ago, but the Senior Tour can be as exciting as the PGA at times, I guess. I think the price is fair on Liddell. If we get lucky then this one could actually be worth watching.
Pick: Chuck Liddell
Krzysztof Soszynski (-155) vs. Briann Stann (+125) - Part of me hopes that Soszynski loses badly just so I never have to try to spell his first name again. I don't think that that will happen, though. Stann is making his UFC debut, and I never like backing fighters in that situation. He also didn't show much in WEC that makes me think that he can handle himself of the ground. Soszynski is very comfortable on the ground, so he will get the fight down there as quickly as he can, and he'll have his way once that happens.
Pick: Krzysztof Soszynski
Cheick Kongo (-350) vs. Antoni Hardonk (+275) - Hardonk's last name makes me laugh, but his skills don't do a lot for me. He's a pure kickboxer, and he's very good at it, but he doesn't have a lot of skills to call upon beyond that. Kongo is more versatile and has more ways he can dominate this one. Hardonk could catch Kongo, but you have to go with the favorite here.
Pick: Cheick Kongo
Luiz Cane (-325) vs. Steve Cantwell (+250) - Cantwell can get an edge here if he gets the fight to the ground early. That's really his only chance. I'm not sure he'll be able to, though, and even if he does Cane may have enough to answer. Cane is clearly the better all-round fighter, and that means that we unfortunately have to back yet another favorite.
Pick: Luiz Cane
Denis Kang (-325) vs. Xavier Foupa-Pokam (+250) - Kang is coming off a loss in his UFC debut, but he has the advantage of fighting in front of a home country crowd, and that seems to help fighters quite a bit. Foupa-Pokam is making his UFC debut. Fouka-Pokam has an edge in striking, but Kang is much more well-rounded, and can capitalize in more different ways. The chalk-fest continues.
Pick: Denis Kang
Nate Quarry (-120) vs. Jason MacDonald (-110) - This is obviously a closely matched fight. With 16 UFC fights between them, these guys are settling into the roles of mid-card journeymen. Either one could win this fight. My guess is that Quarry will be a bit better suited to controlling the pace and location of the fight. That gives him enough of an edge to make him the pick.
Pick: Nate Quarry
David Loiseau (-125) vs. Ed Herman (-105) - Neither of these guys are in particularly good standing in the UFC thanks to the losses they have piled up, so they both need this win. Desperation is usually fun to watch. Loiseau is fighting in his hometown here, and that should be too much for a fighter like Herman to overcome.
Pick: David Loiseau
Mark Bocek (-285) vs. David Bielkheden (+225) - This is a clash of styles - Bocek is a BJJ fighter, while Bielkheden relies on his striking and a submission when he gets the chance. If Bocek gets this one to the ground then I don't see Bielkheden having an answer.
Pick: Mark Bocek
Sam Stout (-140) vs. Matt Wiman (+110) - Stout is a Canadian to he'll get a bit of a boost, but I' not sure that it's enough here - especially earlier on the card before the fans are relied fueled up on Molson. Wiman has been more successful than Stout in the UFC. He is a wrestler, and look for him to get Wiman down on the ground and minimize the damage Stout can do. Finally an underdog, even if just barely.
Pick: Matt Wiman