2019 Oscars Odds with Expert Academy Awards Betting Predictions
The last two years, the Academy Awards betting outcomes were pretty much all the betting favorites, but this year I do see some Oscar underdogs cashing in. "The Shape of Water" was the big winner last year, and this year could we see "Roma" walking away with all the major hardware or could we see some shocking upsets. This year keep an eye out for "The Favourite" and "Green Book" as the buzz on both of these movies could pull the rug out from the heavy favorite Roma.
The 91st Academy Awards (Oscars) show is live this Sunday from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, and I'm hoping this year we will see some underdog winners like we saw at the Golden Globes. Offshore sportsbooks MyBookie has a full list of odds for the 91st Annual Academy Awards. Jump on these betting lines now because these lines will move, and it wouldn't shock me to see a big underdog take home an Oscar this Sunday.
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Awards shows like this are such a great betting opportunity because a sharp handicapper can easily score a big profit. Like other awards shows such as the SAGs or even the Grammys, upsets and heavy long shots will come through; you just need to pick your spots! Quick example: at the Golden Globes "Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse" was around +300 and pulled off the upset beating "Ralph Breaks The Internet" and "Incredibles 2". There is a reason the sportsbooks offer such low limits on these props; they want to lessen their exposure to guys like me! Again, last year the betting favorites cleaned house, but this year I smell some of the heavy favorites going down, and maybe, we could see another 25-1 underdog winner like two years ago in the Best Costume Design category.
Best Motion Picture
Green Book +500
The Favourite +1100
Black Panther +3300
A Star Is Born +4000
Bohemian Rhapsody +4000
(Last year winner: The Shape of Water -200) At the Golden Globes "Bohemian Rhapsody" shocked the Globes at 16-1 to win for Best Motion Picture and now Bohemian Rhapsody is 40-1. I don't see that big of an upset Sunday night but keep an eye out for Green Book or The Favourite. As you can tell Roma is the huge favorite, and the Alfonso Cuaron masterpiece was nothing but brilliant. The story that Roma told was outstanding, and it's no secret that the oddsmakers believe Roma wins this category. It wouldn't shock me to see this number move to -1000 or higher.
(Prediction: Roma -500)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) -2000
Spike Lee (Blackkklansman) +900
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War) +3300
Adam McKay (Vice) +4000
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) +4000
(Last year winner: Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water -1400) So if you read my Best Motion Picture predictions, you know who I'm picking here for Best Director. This category only has two directors that can win this award, and that is Alfonso Cuaron or Spike Lee, Sorry, Spike, you are not pulling the upset.
(Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) -2000)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) -450
Christian Bale (Vice) +270
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) +2000
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) +4000
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) +6600
(Last year winner: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour -2500) Rami Malek won Best Actor at the Golden Globes, and Sunday night I see him being the heavy favorite. However, I'm calling upset in this category. Give me Christian Bale +270 for his performance in "Vice", the way he sacrificed his body for that role was impressive and may bring a win. Don't sleep on Viggo Mortensen either in this category, and if his number goes any higher it's not a bad idea to throw small bucks on him.
(Prediction: Christian Bale (Vice) +270)
Glenn Close (The Wife) -600
Olivia Colman (The Favourite) +400
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) +1400
Yalitza Aparicio (Romo) +4000
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) +6600
(Last year winner: Frances McDorman - Three Billboards -1000) Before the movie The Favourite came out, the buzz around Hollywood was this award was easily going to Lady Gaga. Sorry Lady Gaga, because since then Glenn Close was unbelievable in "The Wife" and Olivia Colman was really good in The Favourite. This category is between those two ladies, and since Glenn Close upset Lady Gaga at the Golden Globes (underdog winner +220) I see her winning this category Sunday night.
(Prediction: Glenn Close (The Wife) -600)
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book) -1400
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me) +1000
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) +1600
Adam Driver (Blackkklansman) +4000
Sam Rockwell (Vice) +5000
(Last year winner: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards -1000) Not much to think about in this category! Easy win for Mahershala Ali in Green Book, and I'm still blown away you could have bet him at the Golden Globes at -150.
(Prediction: Mahershala Ali (Green Book) -1400)
Best Supporting Actress
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) -250
Amy Adams (Vice) +300
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) +600
Emma Stone (The Favourite) +2500
Marina De Tavira (Roma) +2500
(Last year winner: Allison Janney - I, Tonya -750) Regina King in "If Beale Street Could Talk" pulled off not one but two big wins at the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice, and Sunday night she hits the trifecta. I know Amy Adams Vice role could steal this award Sunday night, but if Adams couldn't do it at the Globes I highly doubt the Academy gives it to her on Oscar night.
(Prediction: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) -250)
Best Foreign Language Film
Cold War +900
Never Look Away +5000
(Last year winner: A Fantastic Woman) No brainer here!
(Prediction: Roma -2000)
Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite -180
Green Book +270
First Reformed +1200
(Last year winner: Get Out +100) Would love to see one of the big underdogs win this category like "First Reformed" at +1200, but I don't see that happening. It's between Green Book +270 and the favorite The Favourite at -180, and the oddsmakers will be correct in this category.
(Prediction: The Favourite -180)
Best Adapted Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk +350
A Star Is Born +1600
Can You Ever Forgive Me? +2000
The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs +4000
(Last year winner: Call Me By Your Name) I only see two movies in this category that can walk away with the statue, but I just don't see "Blackkklansman" losing. Keep an eye out for the odds on If Beale Street Could Talk because if this number climbs to +500 or higher you might want to throw some dollars down because if someone pulls out the upset in this category is that movie.
(Prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk -400)
Best Animated Feature Film
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse -1300
Incredibles 2 +1200
Isle of Dogs +1200
Ralph Breaks The Internet +4000
(Last year winner: Coco - Darkest Hour -5000) If you go back to my Golden Globes Odds and Predictions article I called the upset that Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse at +250 would win, and the upset happened. If another upset could happen in this category, I believe "Isle of Dogs" could be that film, although the animation and the story in Spider-Man is outstanding and there is a reason why it's a big favorite.
(Prediction: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse -1300)
Best Original Song
Shallow (A Star Is Born) -2200
All The Stars (Black Panther) +800
The Place Where Lost Things Go (Mary Poppins) +2000
I'll Fight (RBG) +2000
When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings (Ballad) +3300
(Last year winner: Remember Me - Coco -160) Another no brainer here for Best Original Song!
(Prediction: Shallow (A Star Is Born) -2200)
A Star Is Born +1600
The Favourite +1600
Cold War +1200
Never Look Away +5000
(Last year winner: Blade Runner 2049 -800) Another no brainer here for Best Cinematography but would love to see "Cold War" +1200 pull off the upset!
(Prediction: Roma -2000)
Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War -600
First Man +400
Ready Player One +1000
Christopher Robin +2500
Solo: A Star Wars Story +5000
(Last year winner: Blade Runner 2049 +100) A Marvel movie has never won in this category, but Sunday Night they get their first 'W'. "Avengers: Infinity War" was not only a good movie but the Visual Effects are amazing ,and it's no secret why this movie is the big favorite.
(Prediction: Avengers: Infinity War -600)
Best Costume Design
The Favourite -400
Black Panther +270
Mary Queen of Scots +2500
Mary Poppins Returns +3300
The Ballad of Bister Scruggs +3300
(Last year winner: Phantom Thread -900) If you throw out the odds in this category, bar none this is the toughest five movies to pick a winner from. Just getting "Mary Poppins Returns" at 33-1 seems crazy, and throw in that the 'Black Panther' is also +270. The best costume design helps contribute to the film's story. And if you think about it, The Favourite did that and much more. If you like 'live' underdogs keep an eye out on Black Panther and Mary Poppins Returns.
(Prediction: The Favourite -400)
Best Sound Editing
First Man -250
A Quiet Place +400
Bohemian Rhapsody +600
Black Panther +900
(Last year winner: Dunkirk) This category scares me because I have no clue why "First Man" is not around -500 or higher. I understand that "A Quiet Place" could pull off the upset, but lets face it, First Man was a technical gem. And since this movie got snubbed on tons of other categories, I see First Man bringing home the statue Sunday night.
(Prediction: First Man -250)
Best Animated Short Film
One Small Step +1700
Animal Behaviour +2500
Late Afternoon +3300
(Last year winner: Dear Basketball) Another no brainer here for Best Animated Short Film "Bao" at -500!
Best Original Score
If Beale Street Could Talk -160
Black Panther +225
Mary Poppins Returns +600
Isle Of Dogs +2500
(Last year winner: The Shape of Water -400) Normally the heavy favorite wins this category, just like last year, but on Sunday night hold your horses. The small favorite is If Beale Street Could Talk, but I'm taking some plus money in this category. I was torn between Mary Poppins Returns'+600 and Black Panther +225, and I just think the piece of composition from a mystical place called "Wakanda" wins this statue on Sunday.
Prediction: Black Panther +225
Raphael Esparza is one of the best handicappers in all sports. This weekend Esparza will have plays from NBA, College Basketball, Soccer, Boxing, UFC and don't forget in two weeks Esparza will have some horse racing action. This week Esparza is looking for a monster week in all sports and he will have big unit plays in College Basketball Saturday night. New clients can take advantage of Doc's no-hassle $60 free picks offer and get Esparza's weekday picks.
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