Texas Tech (8-4) vs. Virginia (9-3)

Conference Matchup: Big 12 vs. ACC
Date: Jan. 1
Location: Jacksonville, Fla.
Spread: Texas Tech -5.5

Get 50% Extra on your first wager's winnings
at BetED Sportsbook
(Offer good for new customers only)
Click Here

This game provides a stark contrast between the teams' strengths and it makes for an interesting style matchup that will go in favor of the team that best gets the game to fit into its preferred tempo. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are led by a quarterback you've probably never heard of before this year, and he is putting up unheard of type numbers in the spread offense with a couple of dynamic receivers including freshman All-American and future Heisman candidate Michael Crabtree. The Red Raiders lead the nation in passing offense with 475 yards per game, and their 42 points per game is second best in the country. However, Coach Mike Leach's squads have historically struggled with physical teams that switch up their coverages and play a solid bend-but-don't break defense that avoids big plays, puts pressure on the quarterback and holds the opponents out of the end zone. That's what Tech is getting in Virginia, a team that flew under the radar most of the year but whose stingy defense carried a marginal offense and led to a 9-3 record. The Cavaliers have one of the best defensive players in the country in Chris Long, who won the Ted Hendricks Award as the nation's top defensive end. They feature a top-20 rushing and scoring defense, though it will be their 80th-ranked pass defense that gets its biggest test. Virginia won five games by two points or fewer, and if Long and friends can keep Tech quarterback Graham Harrell under pressure and get some stops, the Cavaliers could find themselves in another close game. However, their offense ranks 100th or worse in most statistical categories, and they must make a few big plays and probably score more than their average of 24 points to stand any chance of keeping up with the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech can cover if: the Red Raiders can turn it into their preferred shootout. Harrell threw for 5,298 yards and 45 touchdowns, more in each category than some college quarterbacks compile in a four-year career. Crabtree caught 125 balls for 1,861 yards and 21 touchdowns, and Danny Amendola had 103 catches for 1,177 yards and five touchdowns. In other words, it's all offense all the time. As Tech proved in its win over Oklahoma, it can beat physical teams if it finds a way to the move the ball early and establish a high-scoring affair. The Raiders typically don't play well if they fall behind early, and they must re-adjust their game plan if Virginia successfully pressures Harrell and gets some defensive stops. Texas Tech needs to pressure Virginia by getting a few touchdowns and forcing the Cavaliers to keep pace on the scoreboard, something their ACC opponent is not comfortable doing. If Harrell and friends find the end zone a few times in the first quarter or so, it could be a long day for Virginia.

Virginia can cover if: the Cavaliers can limit Tech's explosive offense, because they have no chance of stopping it completely. If they hold the Raiders to 35 points or fewer, they definitely have a chance. On offense, they need to chew the clock with some time-consuming drives to keep Tech off the field, but they can't get so predictable with a grind-it-out approach that they don't give themselves a chance to score. A few trick plays or some new offensive wrinkles would be a good idea to perhaps catch Tech off-guard, but their usual molasses-type offense will not be enough to get the job done. Virginia would also be well-served to study the defensive tactics of a team like Colorado, which allowed Tech several long drives but was able to hold the Raiders to field goals on several occasions in its 31-26 win over Tech.

After completing this article view our college sports gambling tips page. Our NCAA football bowl game point spreads page is also a valuable tool for your college football research. Doc's Sports sports betting bonus page is and excellent college football resource as well. Is there a college football betting or handicapping topic you would like to see covered? Email service@docsports with your recommendations.

General Notes: Virginia is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog, but just 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall. The Red Raiders are 4-10 ATS against teams with winning records and 2-5 ATS in their last seven bowls as a favorite.