Boise State (10-2) vs. East Carolina (7-5)

Conference matchup: WAC vs. Conference USA Date: Dec. 23, 2007, 8:00 p.m. Location: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii Spread: Boise State -10.5

The setting will be familiar to Boise State - their last game of the season was also in Aloha Stadium, against Hawaii. They will be hoping for a better result here. The fact that the Broncos are playing in a lower level bowl like this is a bit of an insult since they were just one win away from a return to the BCS. These two programs have never met.

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Boise State can cover if: They show up and play their game. The Broncos were top five in the country in points scored and top 10 in total yards. They had two losses, but only one, against Washington, in which their offense didn't fire at full capacity. If they are at their best then they should be able to roll over the Pirates defense and almost score at will. East Carolina was weak against the run and totally inept against the pass. Despite, or perhaps because of, their clear superiority, Boise State will have to be focused on the game to avoid an upset. This could be a bit of a challenge given that the players may be upset about their bowl fate, and that they will have very little crowd support, since their fans traveled to Hawaii in full force for their last game. Coach Chris Peterson could also be a distraction if his name continues to come up for high profile coaching vacancies around the country.

East Carolina can cover if: Their offense shows up. The Pirates don't have a highly-ranked offense, but that is the result of inconsistency. When they were at their best they could pile up the points - they scored over 30 points in each of their seven wins. When they lost they had the bad habit of digging a hole early that they couldn't get out of. If they didn't start strong with the ball then they never got going. Given that Boise State is so explosive, coach Skip Holtz needs to find a way to make sure his team is ready to play from the start and doesn't give up the early momentum. East Carolina was an underdog of more than 10 points on three different occasions this year, and they covered twice, so they do have the ability to stay close if they want to. They played particularly well against Virginia Tech in a game against a vastly superior opponent to start the season. The best hope for East Carolina is if they can use the four weeks before this game to create and execute a game plan as they did for that season opener. They played one of their best defensive games of the year then, and they will have to be even better to compete here.

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General notes: Though the teams haven't played, they did have a common opponent this season. On Sept. 15, East Carolina lost at home by a touchdown to Southern Mississippi as one-point underdogs. The Southern Miss passing game was only moderately successful, but running back Damion Fletcher and the rest of the running game punished East Carolina. East Carolina passed well, but couldn't get much going on the ground. Two weeks later, the Golden Eagles traveled to Boise. It wasn't pretty. As 10.5-point underdogs, the Eagles got down by two touchdowns in the first 10 minutes and were never in the game. Boise State was equally effective whether they chose to run the ball or air it out. Common opponents don't always tell us much, but this is yet more proof that Boise State is obviously the superior team in this matchup and will be able to have their way in this game if they choose to.