NASCAR Nextel Cup Series: Dickies 500 Picks
by Christopher G. Shepard - 11/01/2007
A scant nine points separates Jimmie Johnson from first place teammate Jeff Gordon, and with three races remaining the Chase for the Nextel Cup has never been closer since the Chase began in 2004. Johnson won last Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway and will try to win his third Chase race in a row down in Fort Worth at Texas Motor Speedway for the Dickies 500 at 3:30 p.m. EST this Sunday.
Johnson began the race at Atlanta Motor Speedway 53 points behind Chase leader Jeff Gordon. Now it's apparent that both Gordon and Johnson are in the driver's seat heading into the last three races at Texas, Phoenix and Florida. If anyone is in position to crash the Henrick Motorsports party it is third place Clint Bowyer, but 111 points out is a distant third. If Bowyer's breakout season is any indication of how he will do in the upcoming seasons, he is definitely one to watch.
On Sunday Denny Hamlin led the Pep Boys 500 with three laps remaining when his car stalled and he got rear ended by Martin Truex, Jr. effectively ending his Chase title hopes. Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson made the most of the opportunity, scooting by Hamlin to take the checkered flag for the second week in a row. "Concrete" Carl Edwards, who moved up to fourth place on the Chase leader board, and Reed Sorenson, finished the race in second and third place, respectively.
Who will win the Dickies 500?
Everything about Texas is big including the 1.5-mile quad-oval at the "Great American Speedway." If you are going, bring your appetite because besides boasting some of the circuit's best Bar-b-que, TMS is a tailgater's paradise. Jimmy Buffet fans eat your hearts out.
If there is a race in the Chase that Gordon and Johnson can afford not to win it's at Texas Motor Speedway. With their stranglehold on the Chase lead, Clint Bowyer (20/1) would have to come in at least second and Gordon and Johnson would have to record a DNF -- not likely. Most likely we'll see Johnson and Gordon race to finish rather than to win and somehow, despite this, one of them will most likely end up winning. Shake-n-Bake will look to run a clean race rather than gamble and go off the high-side and jeopardize their places in the Chase with only a few races left.
Combined, Jeff Gordon (5/1) and Jimmie Johnson (5/1) have won the last four Chase races and have managed to win eight out of the last 11 races at Martinsville, but neither racer has won a Nextel Series race in Texas. There are four drivers in the chase who have won at TMS. Tony Stewart (7/1) is the defending Dickies 500 champion; Matt Kenseth (10/1), Carl Edwards (9/2) and Jeff Burton (15/2) have won in Texas. Out of the four, Burton is the only driver who has won twice in the 13-year history of the track; including winning the inaugural race at TMS.
Gamblers who like to play trends should note that since the Dickies 500 began the driver that won at Atlanta went on to win at Texas. In 2005 it was Carl Edwards and last year it was Tony Stewart. Well, we all know who won at Atlanta. Don't forget it was here last year that Johnson took over the lead in the Chase by finishing second to then-points leader Matt Kenseth, who finished the race in 12th place.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson (3/2)
NASCAR - Dickies 500 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3
The sexy pick is not always the right pick on this future wager as I learned last weekend as Gordon had all sorts of trouble with his car and finished seventh while Ryan Newman tanked ending the race in 37th place. This week I don't expect either Johnson or Gordon to finish in the top three, but I do like several Chase drivers.
One driver who has quietly moved up in the standings and is a personal favorite of mine after cashing out winning ticket at Dover earlier in the Chase is Carl Edwards in the No. 99 Office Depot Ford. Edwards' second place finish at AMS was good enough to move him up to fourth place in the Chase standings. Edwards won at TMS 2005 but came in 12th earlier this year.
Jeff Burton is in eighth place in the Chase standings. He won his only race this season earlier this year at Texas and, with his second top-five finish at AMS, he is always dangerous at TMS. Another chase driver to finish in the top five in the last two consecutive races is Matt Kenseth. He has a total of four top-five finishes at Texas. Kenseth almost won here this spring but was overtaken by Jeff Burton on the final lap and finished in second place. So look for those two drivers to once again battle it out this weekend.
Pick! Carl Edwards (9/2)
Pick! Jeff Burton (15/2)
NASCAR - Dickies 500 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3
Jeff Gordon (3/2)
Jimmie Johnson (3/2)
Tony Stewart (2/1)
Matt Kenseth (3/1)
Kurt Busch (3/1)
Kyle Busch (7/2)
Kasey Kahne (7/2)
Martin Truex Jr (7/2)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (7/2)
Denny Hamlin (9/2)
Carl Edwards (9/2)
Clint Bowyer (6/1)
Jeff Burton (15/2)
Greg Biffle (15/2)
Ryan Newman (15/2)
zx Field (Any Other Driver) (15/2)
Mark Martin (10/1)
Kevin Harvick (10/1)
Casey Mears (12/1)
Juan Pablo Montoya (15/1)
Jamie McMurray (22/1)
Jeremy Mayfield (30/1)
JJ Yeley (30/1)
Dave Blaney (30/1)
Robby Gordon (30/1)
Elliott Sadler (30/1)
David Stremme (30/1)
Bobby Labonte (30/1)
Paul Menard (30/1)
Reed Sorenson (30/1)
David Ragan (30/1)
Ricky Rudd (30/1)
Bill Elliott (30/1)
David Gilliland (30/1)
*odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com
NASCAR -Dickies 500 - Odds to Win
Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
Jeff Gordon (5/1)
Tony Stewart (7/1)
Kurt Busch (10/1)
Matt Kenseth (10/1)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (12/1)
Kyle Busch (12/1)
Kasey Kahne (12/1)
Martin Truex Jr (12/1)
Carl Edwards (15/1)
Denny Hamlin (15/1)
Clint Bowyer (20/1)
Ryan Newman (25/1)
Jeff Burton (25/1)
Greg Biffle (25/1)
zx Field (Any Other Driver) (25/1)
Mark Martin (35/1)
Kevin Harvick (35/1)
Casey Mears (40/1)
Juan Pablo Montoya (50/1)
Jamie McMurray (75/1)
Paul Menard (100/1)
Bobby Labonte (100/1)
David Stremme (100/1)
Elliott Sadler (100/1)
Robby Gordon (100/1)
Dave Blaney (100/1)
Reed Sorenson (100/1)
Jeremy Mayfield (100/1)
Ricky Rudd (100/1)
Bill Elliott (100/1)
David Gilliland (100/1)
David Ragan (100/1)
JJ Yeley (100/1)
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com