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Nobel Peace Prize Betting Odds and Analysis
by T.O. Whenham - 10/09/2007

The wait between football games too long? Dying to get some action down before the weekend? Well, the Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded on Friday, and you can bet on the winner...

If you search around at different books you can find places where you can bet on individual winners. For the sake of simplicity, though, you can just go to Pinnacle and others and bet on either Al Gore or the field. Gore is currently at +253, and the field is at -283. Is Gore a good bet? Here's a look:

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There seems to be a strong international sentiment that the Nobel committee is going to, for the first time, use the award to recognize the plight of the environment. There has been a shift away from peacekeeping and international diplomacy the last few years, and the green movement is certainly in the minds of people, so this could make sense. If that's the case then there are three likely winners. Gore is nominated for his film "The Inconvenient Truth," and for the work he has done around that film and in subsequent efforts to make people aware of the problems. If he doesn't win, Sheila Watt-Cloutier, a Canadian Inuit environmental activist, or Indian climatologist Rajendra Pauchauri, the head of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, could pull it off.

One theory that seems to be gaining steam is that Watt-Cloutier and Gore will share the award. They were nominated together by two Norwegian politicians even though the two potential winners have never met each other. (You'll want to check with your book before you make a bet about what happens if Gore only shares the award. Pinnacle will pay out even if Gore only takes a piece of the prize, but others may just return the bet instead.) Of this group, Gore seems like a likely winner. He is seen by some as too political to win, which would help Pauchari, but his clear opposition to Bush will help his cause internationally.

So if it goes green, it will likely go, at least in part, to Gore. But what if the environment continues to be ignored? There are a number of more traditional Nobel candidates. Martti Ahtisaari, the former President of Finland, negotiated peace in the Aceh region of Indonesia. Irena Sendlerowa saved 2,500 kids from the Warsaw Ghetto during World War II. Thich Quang Do is a Vietnamese political activist. Rebiya Kadeer is similarly a political activist in China. All of them, and others (including U2 lead singer Bono, a longshot nominee), have the kind of stories that win the award, but none have anywhere near the public profile that Gore does.

Gore's profile shouldn't work against him - though many Nobel winners are obscure to the general public, winners like Kofi Annan and Medecins Sans Frontieres have been highly visible. Being a Democrat is helpful, too - Democratic president Jimmy Carter won in 2002. At odds of 2.5/1 or better, Gore seems like a reasonable bet to take home a piece of the prize. There certainly seems to be more value in him at this price than there is in the field.