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NASCAR Nextel Cup Series: Pep Boys 500 Picks
by Christopher G. Shepard - 10/24/2007

To commemorate the 15th anniversary of his NASCAR debut and his 31st start at Atlanta Motor Speedway Jeff Gordon will command drivers to "Start their engines" as the No. 24 driver has been named Grand Marshall of the Pep Boys 500 on Sunday. NASCAR legend and seven-time Cup Series winner Richard Petty will commemorate his last career win 15 years ago at AMS by waving the green flag as the race's honorary starter.

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Last weekend Jimmie Johnson won his third consecutive race at Martinsville and shaved 15 points off Jeff Gordon's lead in the chase for the Nextel Cup title as the Hendrick Motorsports duo once again dominated the field at the Subway 500. Chances are that not even Manny, Moe, Jack or defending champion Tony Stewart will be able to stop "shake-n-bake" in their quest for the Cup title.

Jimmie Johnson managed to withstand a record 21 yellow flags, hold off a determined Ryan Newman, and win the two-lap overtime sprint to the finish with Jeff Gordon rounding out the top three finishers at the Subway 500. Between Gordon and Johnson they have won eight of the last 10 races at Martinsville.

Who will win the Pep Boys 500?

The 1.54-mile quad-oval that is Atlanta Motor Speedway is where Jeff Gordon made his debut in 1992 at the Hooters 500 on the same day that legendary driver Richard Petty raced his final laps as a NASCAR driver. Considered one of NASCAR's greatest all-time races Alan Kulwicki and his T-bird defeated Bill Elliott on laps winning the Winston Cup by only 10 points.

If you're coming to Atlanta for the race be sure to bring a couple of jugs of water since Atlanta is going through its worst drought in 100 years and is holding less than a 90-days supply of drinking water. According to weather forecasts rain is not likely so the race should go the distance. Back in March of this year Jimmie Johnson edged out Tony Stewart and won the Kobalt Tools 500 on the fastest track on the Nextel Cup Circuit.

Jimmie Johnson last won this race in 2004 when it was called the Bass Pro Shops 500 and you have to go all the way back to 1998 and the NAPA 500 for Jeff Gordon's 221-lap win on NASCAR's rain shortened, first-night Cup race. But no one has more wins at Atlanta Motor Speedway than the Intimidator Dale Earnhardt, with nine. Bobby Labonte leads all active drivers with six wins at AMS. Last year Tony Stewart edged out Jimmie Johnson and won "Big Roar," the Bass Pro Shops 500 280-pound, eight-foot tall, bronze grizzly bear trophy.

I picked Tony Stewart to win last week (that was before qualifiers) and he managed to finish the race 13th from his 34th place start. Despite posting four top-10 finishes in the past six Nextel Cup races, Stewart has fallen further and further behind the leaders and his fourth place in the standings. Stewart started the Chase in third place, only 30 points behind the leaders, and has watched that slip to 249 points behind Jeff Gordon.

Team Hendrick Motorsports has been the dominant force in the Chase for the Nextel Cup this year, effectively making the chase a two-driver battle with Johnson and Gordon the favorites to win not only at Atlanta but the Nextel Cup title. While Gordon sits on top of the leaderboard he'll receive spirited competition from the 41 other drives and teams hoping the duo make a mistake, even for just one race. This doesn't seem likely as the winner at Atlanta's storied track will no doubt be driving under the Hendrick Motorsports banner. In fact I am going to try a "hedge" betting strategy this week by picking both HMS drivers to win; the odds are decent enough that if either Shake or Bake win I'll still earn 2-1 on my money.

Pick! Jeff Gordon (6/1)
Pick! Jimmie Johnson (9/2)

NASCAR -Pep Boys 500 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3

Last week at Martinsville the winner was no surprise to NASCAR fans as Jimmie Johnson grabbed the checkered flag and my pick to come in the top three, Jeff Gordon, came in third, cashing our bet for that future wager. If you watched the race you probably were surprised to see F/1 crossover Juan Pablo Montoya actually lead his first Nextel Cup race for nine laps. Even more impressive was that he was in the top five for 125 laps and within striking distance in the top-10 for 275 laps. Montoya's 8th place finish was the first time he finished in the top-10 on a short track in his NASCAR career. Does this mean he'll finish in the Top 3 at AMS? Not likely, but it looks like Montoya could become a force next season.

Clint Bowyer is currently third in the Chase standings, and should be fun to watch as he closes in on Gordon and Johnson. For Bowyer to win the championship he'll need not only to win, but also finish the next four races with top-five finishes. Bowyer has not had a DNF this season and his 9th place finish at Martinsville kept him competitive, but I don't see Bowyer finishing in the top-three at Atlanta.

AMS is known for speed, upsets, three wide racing, and all-out racing. Drivers who are out of the Chase have as much of a shot of winning as the Chase drivers. While Gordon and Johnson are the show right now, Ryan Newman has been getting closer and closer in the last two races. He has been as fast, if not faster than anyone. He won the pole at the Bank of America 500 and finished in second at Martinsville. I think Ryan Newman at 10/1 to finish in the Top 3 is a great play.

Pick! Ryan Newman (10/1)
Pick! Jeff Gordon (9/5)

NASCAR -Pep Boys 500 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3

Jimmie Johnson (13/10)
Tony Stewart (3/2)
Jeff Gordon (9/5)
Carl Edwards (3/1)
Kurt Busch (3/1)
Matt Kenseth (3/1)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (7/2)
Clint Bowyer (7/2)
Martin Truex Jr (7/2)
Kyle Busch (7/2)
Denny Hamlin (9/2)
Kevin Harvick (15/2)
Jeff Burton (15/2)
Kasey Kahne (9/1)
Ryan Newman (10/1)
Casey Mears (12/1)
Mark Martin (12/1)
Greg Biffle (12/1)
zx Field (Any Other Driver) (15/1)
Juan Pablo Montoya (18/1)
Jamie McMurray (22/1)
David Stremme (30/1)
Elliott Sadler (30/1)
Dave Blaney (30/1)
JJ Yeley (30/1)
Jeremy Mayfield (30/1)
Ricky Rudd (30/1)
Bill Elliott (30/1)
David Gilliland (30/1)
David Ragan (30/1)
Bobby Labonte (30/1)
Paul Menard (30/1)
Reed Sorenson (30/1)
Robby Gordon (30/1)

*odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com

NASCAR - Pep Boys 500 - Odds to Win

Jimmie Johnson (9/2)
Tony Stewart (5/1)
Jeff Gordon (6/1)
Matt Kenseth (10/1)
Carl Edwards (10/1)
Kurt Busch (10/1)
Clint Bowyer (12/1)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (12/1)
Martin Truex Jr (12/1)
Kyle Busch (12/1)
Denny Hamlin (15/1)
Kevin Harvick (25/1)
Jeff Burton (25/1)
Kasey Kahne (30/1)
Ryan Newman (35/1)
Casey Mears (40/1)
Greg Biffle (40/1)
Mark Martin (40/1)
zx Field (Any Other Driver) (50/1)
Juan Pablo Montoya (60/1)
Jamie McMurray (75/1)
Bobby Labonte (100/1)
Paul Menard (100/1)
Reed Sorenson (100/1)
David Ragan (100/1)
David Gilliland (100/1)
Bill Elliott (100/1)
Ricky Rudd (100/1)
Jeremy Mayfield (100/1)
JJ Yeley (100/ )
Dave Blaney (100/1)
David Stremme (100/1)
Elliott Sadler (100/1)
Robby Gordon (100/1)

*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com