NASCAR: Amp Energy 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 10/03/2008
Jimmie Johnson won his fifth race of the season and is currently 10 points ahead of Carl Edwards for the lead going into restrictor plate Sunday as the fourth race of the Chase for the Sprint Cup starts at 1 p.m. EST at historic Talladega Superspeedway. Get ready for some wild and crazy racing, plenty of side-by-side action and lots of drafting at one of NASCAR most beloved tracks. The best thing about the 2.66-mile tri-oval is she always promises sudden, multi-car wrecks and fabulous finishes. If you are not investing it is still a great race to watch; especially the ending.
Gamblers interested in trends would be wise to note that Chevy's own Talladega, winning 17 of the past 19 races. Chevy won 12 races in a row before dropping to Dale Jarret's Ford in 2005 and then Busch's Toyota won this spring so it might follow that Chevrolet is due to end their one-race drought.
Who will win the AMP 500?
At Kansas I advised a buy on Carl Edwards and that investment strategy almost paid off. And it was not for the lack of effort on Edwards' part. He attempt to pass Jimmie Johnson on the last lap that sent the No. 99 car careening into the wall was subliminal. I know it sounds trite when I lose my investment when my pick ricochets off the wall on the last lap. But if I am going to invest I want to know my guy did his best to win and I give Edwards a K (kudos) for the effort. Unfortunately, I ended up on the wrong side of the edge-of-your-seat excitement (even without an investment in the outcome it was exciting) and Edwards finished the race in second place.
Despite his scatological season--eighth place in the standings and -190 points out of first--Dale Earnhardt, Jr., is listed at 6/1 on Sunday. Two factors combine to make this reasonable odds and a relatively smart wager; Hendrick Motorsports has won 10 races at 'Dega--more than any other team--and Junior has been a stud in Alabama winning five times and finishing second twice in his last 14 starts. Moreover, Junior's four consecutive wins at Talladega is still the most consecutive wins by any driver active or inactive, including Jeff Gordon. The question is can HMS provide Junior the best car to do well in qualifying and the best car on the track on Sunday since at 'Dega it is all about the car? There is no doubt that Junior can win this race if he has the best car on Sunday.
While No. 88 might have the most consecutive victories Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with six wins. Gordon is also the race's defending champion, but Gordon's season last year and this year is a study of contrasts. Last year he was in first place at this point of the year with JJ nipping at his rear bumper while this year Gordon is in sixth place -143 points behind Johnson. The question after gaining two spots at Kansas is whether or not Gordon can make a serious run at the Cup. He'll need a lot of help though. The oddsmakers obviously feel that Gordon still has 'Dega's number since he is also listed at 6/1 odds to win.
There are only two other active drivers who have won at Talladega; one current and one ex- HMS wheelman. Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson each have won once at the Superspeedway. Yet Johnson holds the edge in top-five finishes at five-to-one. Busch, who won the spring race, is set at 6/1 while Johnson is 7/1 to win. I think it's safe to say that somebody put the bad JuJu on Kyle Busch. Busch can barely get out of his own way since the Chase has started. Just look at his finishes. Since the Chase started Busch has finished no better than 28th (this from a driver who dominated NASCAR all season) and has an average Chase race finish of 35th place in the past three races. Yet he is still listed at 6/1. The question is are you a sucker or a believer? At this point it appears that if you take Busch at 6/1 to win you are a sucker until proven otherwise. As for Johnson the guy has been money during the last three years in the ten-race playoff format.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (7/1)
Amp 500 Solid Gold Picks
Long Odds Value Pick
He won this race in 1998 when it was still called the Nextel Cup. Granted Labonte is no longer one of the marquee drivers when compared to Gordon, Stewart, Earnhardt and Johnson, but he still does well on Superspeedways. You'd have to go all the way back to the start of the season and Daytona to find his sole top-10 finish this season. Even though he only finished one restrictor plate race this season Labonte has run well when he has been caught up in the middle of wrecks. He is currently in 20th place in the standings and has been racing much better in recent weeks. If Labonte can avoid disaster he could surprise the Chase field and steal one in Alabama. I mean hey, what is more fun than layin a fin on a 100/1 shot and it cashes?
Pick! Bobby Labonte (100/1)
Solid Gold Picks
By deadline last weekend lines had not been hung for matchups at Kansas. This week Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Amp Energy 500 at Talladega Superspeedway this weekend but here is a good one that I think should cash. After a quiet week last weekend my record Over-the-Wall has a flat tire at 14-16 and -2.35 units on the season after 29 of 36 Sprint Cup races completed.
Square Tire Pick
Ryan Newman, No. 12, (-1.15) vs. Jeff Burton, No. 31, (-1.15)
Burton is currently in fourth place and -151 points behind first in the Chase standings while Newman is in 15th place and out of the Chase. A no brainer, right? Burton winning this matchup is a lock, right? Wrong. Newman has a new ride for 2009 with Stewart-Haas racing but still needs to concentrate on finishing out this season and perhaps even an unlikely Sprint Cup Championship in the Roger Penske Dodge. Newman has never won at Talladega and sports three top-five and six top-10s with an underwhelming average finish of 17.9. However, Burton historically has not run really well at 'Dega. Burton has a paltry two top five wins and ten top-10s but an even worse 19.1 average finish at the Superspeedway in the Yellowhammer State. I'm thinking way back to the beginning of the season and his victory at Daytona and look for more of the same from the Alltel Ford on Sunday.
Pick! Ryan Newman, No 12, (-1.15) for three units.
Amp Energy 500 Odds
Sun, Oct 5th (2:15pm EST) Talladega Superspeedway, AL
Aric Almirola 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Boris Said 200/1
Brian Vickers 30/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Casey Mears 75/1
Clint Bowyer 30/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 6/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Gilliland 100/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Elliott Sadler 50/1
Greg Biffle 20/1
Jamie McMurray 50/1
Jeff Burton 30/1
Jeff Gordon 6/1
Jimmie Johnson 7/1
Joe Nemechek 100/1
Jon Wood 200/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 75/1
Kasey Kahne 30/1
Ken Schrader 200/1
Kevin Harvick 20/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Martin Truex Jr. 35/1
Matt Kenseth 25/1
Michael McDowell 100/1
Michael Waltrip 60/1
Mike Skinner 100/1
Mike Wallace 200/1
Patrick Carpentier 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Robby Gordon 100/1
Ryan Newman 20/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Sterling Marlin 200/1
Terry Labonte 100/1
Tony Raines 100/1
Tony Stewart 6/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1