College Football Conference Championship Futures
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 10/01/2008
A topsy-turvy week in college football has changed many lines in the conference championship future markets from what they were in the preseason. When looking at the future lines for conferences with a conference championship game it is not about picking the best team but rather picking a team that has tiebreakers on their side and are on the weaker side of the division.
SEC
In the SEC a stunning upset in the swamp was not enough to dethrone Florida as the favorite in the SEC. The Gators are at +150 on Sportsbook.com ahead of Alabama and LSU, who are both at +250. The huge early season wins for Alabama were not enough to vault them to the top in the minds in oddsmakers because they are in the SEC West along with LSU where they have to travel to in November.
Alabama handing Georgia a loss actually helped Florida because both favorites from the SEC East, Florida and Georgia, are now 1-1 with a date in Athens, Georgia later this year, which is likely to decide the East representative in the Georgia Dome. Vanderbilt is the lone 2-0 team in the East but at +2000 they are not a serious contender for the position with only wins over South Carolina and Ole Miss. Kentucky has yet to play an SEC game and they are 4-0 overall but they are also a long shot at +10,000. The Wildcats enter their first SEC game of the season as 16-point underdogs at Alabama.
Georgia, the No. 1 team in the preseason, has fallen to +300 after the loss to Alabama. The Bulldogs do not have much value at +300 considering they will almost certainly have to beat Florida in the swamp and the money line in that single game will have an almost equal payout.
Other potential longshots with potential value include Auburn (+2000) and Ole Miss (+2500). Ole Miss picked the wrong year to make a potential run for the conference title. Even with the win at Florida, they still have a daunting schedule that includes trips to Alabama and LSU. Auburn might be worth a closer look at +2000. Standing in their way is 2-0 LSU, who has already claimed a win over them. However, it could be easier to find two losses in their tough schedule. Auburn has four straight SEC games where they will likely be favored. They play at Vanderbilt, vs. Arkansas, at Ole Miss, vs. Georgia and at Alabama in an end of the season rivalry game.
ACC
Virginia Tech fans can almost buy their tickets to Jacksonville for the ACC title game. They are huge favorites to represent the Coastal Division after a 2-0 start in conference play with both wins coming over other Coastal Division favorites. Sportsbook.com lists Virginia Tech at +160. They are the only team from the Coastal Division in the Top 5 of the odds. Oddsmakers view North Carolina at +800 and Georgia Tech at +1000 as possible teams that could give them a run, but both teams have already lost to the Hokies, making the lead even tougher to overcome.
Virginia Tech still has to travel to Boston College, Florida State and Miami. Miami is currently on the board at +1200 and they have the best value in the Coastal Division considering two walkovers Duke and Virginia are still on their schedule, and their toughest games, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest are at home.
Things are wide open in the Atlantic Division where Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State and Maryland all have shown the potential to reach the ACC title game. Despite early season struggles, Clemson (+350) is still the favorite in the Atlantic. Their odds seem very generous considering four of their last six conference games are on the road, including trips to Wake Forest, Boston College and Florida State.
Wake Forest and Maryland are the lone 1-0 teams in the Atlantic. Wake Forest has a chance at +400 considering they host Clemson, but the following week they have to travel to Maryland. The Terrapins at +800 have incredible value. Four of the remaining seven games are at home for Maryland and they have a non-conference win against Cal under their belt along with an upset at Clemson. Florida State, at +700, should be avoided considering the struggles the Seminoles offense has in conference games. They could only muster a field goal against Wake Forest and only have one win against a Division 1-A team. Florida State will spend most of its schedule on the road with trips to Miami, N.C. State, Georgia Tech and Maryland.