UFC 84 Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 05/01/2008
UFC 84 is just around the corner, and it offers one of the deepest and most competitive cards we have seen in a while. It takes place on May 24 from the MGM Grand Garden in Las Vegas. The main event is a lightweight championship bout between champion B.J. Penn and Sean Sherk. There are a couple of light heavyweight bouts on the card that could be at least as entertaining. Wanderlei Silva will try to bounce back from a loss to Chuck Liddell when he faces Keith Jardine. Interestingly, Jardine's last fight was a win over Liddell. The other fight that is interesting features Tito Ortiz. He's no longer at the top of his game, but his fights are always an exciting spectacle. At UFC 84 he will face the undefeated Lyoto Machida. To get ready for this exciting card, here's a preview and some UFC 84 predictions. (All odds are from Bodog)
B.J. Penn (-225) vs. Sean Sherk (+185) - This is Penn's first defense of his lightweight title. He won it in January at UFC 80 when he defeated Joe Stevenson with a second round submission. Penn was totally dominant in the fight. He knocked Stevenson around and cut him badly before ultimately securing a rear naked choke. With the win Penn became the first man other than Randy Couture to win titles in two weight classes.
Penn is a very talented fighter, and he has some solid wins on his record. Besides Stevenson he has wins over Matt Hughes and Matt Serra. His critics point to a pretty mixed recent record, though - he has won just half of his last six fights. This is a fight that definitely needs to happen to cement Penn's credibility at this weight class. To this point his title has an asterisk beside it in many eyes. Sherk held the title, and Penn was to fight him after beating Jens Pulver to conclude Ultimate Fighter 5. The California State Athletic Commission suspended Sherk, so Stevenson stepped in and Penn won. A win here will silence Penn's critics. More exciting, Penn has dropped hints that he is interested in moving back up to welterweight to take on champion Georges St. Pierre if he wins this fight.
Sherk's recent history has fewer losses, but it isn't exactly something to be proud of. He won the UFC Lightweight title by defeating the underwhelming Kenny Florian. Florian is most famous for being the runner-up in the first season of Ultimate Fighter. The two fought for the title that had been vacant since Jens Pulver gave up the belt and left the UFC in 2002. Sherk defended the title against the equally unimpressive Hermes Franca. That fight was a joke - both fighters tested positive for steroids. This is Sherk's first fight since that result and his suspension.
As the odds reflect, Sherk is in deep here. When you look back on his career the only two truly elite fighters he has faced are Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre. He lost both fights. Penn is a better fighter, and he is sharper and likely more prepared. It's not impossible that Penn could lose - he has been known to lose concentration from time to time. He seems to have renewed focus, though, and he should be fine here.
Wanderlei Silva (-160) vs. Keith Jardine (+130) - Silva is one scary Brazilian, but he is on a nasty losing streak. He's dropped his last three - to Cro Cop, Dan Henderson and Chuck Liddell. There's no shame in losing to any of those fighters, but losing any three fights in a row is a bad thing. Even worse, the Liddell fight was the only one that made it the distance - he was knocked out in the other two. Only the Liddell fight was in the UFC, though, as Silva had toiled in PRIDE for years. His signing was a pretty big deal for the UFC, so you have to imagine that this fight was set up in part to return the 31 year old to his former glory.
Jardine came to the UFC through Ultimate Fighter 2. He lost to Rashad Evans there, but was able to stick in the big time. He went on to string together some wins - most impressively against Forest Griffin. After that win, though, he hit an all-time low. Going into UFC 71 he complained to anyone who would listen that he was too good to face an unknown like Houston Alexander. As so often happens in these cases, fate took revenge on Jardine - it took just 48 seconds for Alexander to knock out Jardine. He bounced back to take a split decision from Liddell last September.
If someone is looking for an upset this is where they will end up. At their best, Silva would win easily. He's clearly not at his best, though, and Jardine is pesky enough to hang around and give Silva real problems.
Lyoto Machida (-200) vs. Tito Ortiz (+160) - This one is interesting based on the names, but it's far less interesting in reality. It wasn't that long ago that Ortiz was the biggest star in the UFC, but time has taken its toll. He's fought just twice in the last year and a half, and neither outing was overwhelming. He went down under a barrage of strikes from Chuck Liddell in the third round of their match, and then he won a sloppy split decision against Rashad Evans. In that fight Ortiz was penalized in the second round when he got into trouble and grabbed the fence. Ortiz can still fight, but the level of competition he needs to face to look good is getting lower and lower.
Whereas Ortiz is on the decline, Machida is clearly on the rise. The 29-year-old has fought 12 times and he has never lost. This is his fifth fight in the UFC, and it is against by far the best opponent. It's clearly a test for the fighter. If he can dispatch the aging legend and look good doing it then he could move up into the title picture. If Machida has an issue it's that doesn't finish fighters off - he has won six of his last eight fights by decision. He can win here, but he will have to step his game up a level or two to do it. He should be the clear favorite, but these prices don't reflect any value in my mind.