UFC 86 Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 07/03/2008
The UFC returns to action on Saturday with UFC 86. It isn't the highest profile card, and casual fans probably aren't that excited, but there is more than enough intrigue and uncertainty to make this one have real potential. Here are my UFC 86 predictions for the main highlights of the card. All odds are from 5Dimes.
Quinton 'Rampage' Jackson (-265) vs. Forest Griffin (+225) - These two guys were the coaches on the last season of "The Ultimate Fighter". Normally the coaches hate each other, and that makes for a good fight. The problem is that these guys don't. If you take hatred out then this just comes down to a fight. That's not good news for Griffin. Don't get me wrong, I like the guy. He's a very smart fighter, and he's as fit as a guy can be. He's a solid striker, and he is more than respectable on the ground. The problem, though, is that Rampage has pretty much the same attributes and same game, and he is better at it than Griffin. If Griffin tries to stay on his feet and strike then Jackson will likely beat him because of his better range and speed. If they go to the ground then Jackson has the edge - Griffin will struggle to defend Rampage if he gets any room to move. If Jackson has a vulnerability it is too aggressive knee action. Though Griffin doesn't use that much anymore, he used to.
I don't want to sound like I am underestimating Griffin. I think he is a very good fighter, and I know he will be very hard to knock out. I just can't come up with enough scenarios in which he wins, and every way I look at it I see Jackson come out ahead. An upset could happen, but there is still value in Jackson at this price.
UFC 86 Pick: Jackson
Ricardo Almeida (-130) vs. Patrick Cote (+110) - This fight has virtually no hype, yet it is being billed as the No. 2 fight on the card. That's a sign of what kind of card this is. Almeida is a legendary submission fighter who made a name for himself in Japan, but he is also a bit of an enigma. He retired back in 2004 to concentrate on running a jiu-jitsu school in New Jersey. After more than three years he got itchy feet and signed a six-fight contract with the UFC. This is just his second fight back. His first was at UFC 81 against Rob Yundt. It told us nothing - Almeida dominated and got a first round submission. Now he takes a big step up in class. Cote is riding a four-match win streak. His win over Kendall Grove at UFC 74 won him Knockout of the Night honors. Both fighters like to end things early, so don't expect this one to go the distance. I respect most of Cote's game, and I'm not going to dismiss him lightly. The one part of his game I don't respect, though, is his defense on the ground. If Almeida can get Cote on his back then we have no reason to believe that Cote has an answer for it. For that reason alone I am forced to pick the favorite again.
Pick: Almeida
Joe Stevenson (-210) vs. Gleison Tibau (+175) - The story here will be to see which fighter can bounce back better, because both are coming off of losses. Stevenson was picked apart by B.J. Penn last time out. It wasn't pretty. Tibau lost to Tyson Griffin, but he gained a lot of respect and admiration in the loss. Stevenson is one of the best ground-and-pound fighters there is, and he will have a distinct edge if that fight goes to the ground early. Tibau is a wrestler who can get a submission. I hate to keep my favorite streak alive, but I think that though Tibau is a good fighter, Stevenson is better and stronger is most aspects of the game, and I just can't pick against him.
Pick: Stevenson
Tyson Griffin (-355) vs. Marcus Aurelio (+265) - Want an upset pick? Here you go. I don't feel that Aurelio has a clear edge here, but he's pretty close to 50-50 in this fight. He's new to the pay-per-view world, and that's likely why he isn't getting any respect here. He is a submission master coming off of two dominating wins. Griffin is a good fighter, but he hasn't stopped an opponent in five fights. He doesn't deserve the huge edge he is given, so Aurelio presents real value.
Pick: Aurelio
Josh Koscheck (-320) vs. Chris Lytle (+260) - The good news for Lytle is that he gets to fight a lot of top welterweights - Serra, Hughes, Alves. The bad news is that he loses to all of them. Koscheck is coming off a nice win over Dustin Hazelett, and seems to be on the rise. That's bad news for Lytle. I don't believe that Koscheck will get the knockout, but I like his chances of getting the decision. A lot.
Pick: Koscheck