NASCAR: Crown Royal 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 05/02/2009
With 67 points separating first from fourth in the Sprint Cup standings, NASCAR revs up the weekend racing under the lights at the short-track of Richmond International Raceway for the Crown Royal presents the Russ Friedman 400 on Saturday night at 7:45, televised by FOX.
After Carl Edwards provided the networks some amazing late race footage (how great was it that he ran across the finish line?) Kurt Busch earned 165 points for his sixth place finish at Talladega last Sunday, good enough by five points, to take the lead from Jeff Gordon in the Sprint Cup standings. Jimmie Johnson is 64 points behind for third place and Tony Stewart is 67 points behind in fourth place.
While all four drivers have won at Richmond, Johnson is the only driver of the three to have won two consecutive races; sweeping in 2007 and winning the fall race in 2008.
Who will win the 2009 Crown Royal 400?
Last year at Richmond it was late in the race when Dale Earnhardt, Jr and Kyle Busch wrecked (some might say Busch caused it) as they fought for the lead late in the race. This week Junior said there were no hard feelings from either driver and as wrecks go it was a clean wreck. Maybe it was.
Coming into the Crown Royal 400 this week Junior gets to wear the mantle of the only Hendrick Motorsports driver to emerge from the carnage of Talladega finishing in the Top 10. In fact, Junior did a lot better than finish in the Top 10; he finished second. The confidence is running high in Earnhardt, Jr Nation and the thrill of victory is seemingly one race away. Just ask any No.88 fan.
Is Richmond the race that will bring team HMS another victory? Perhaps, as three of their four drivers have already notched Sprint Cup wins this season with Junior being the exception. A lot of people like Junior's chances this week, but it will take more than a lucky second at 'Dega to convince me. And as good as HMS driver's have been this season you can't ignore the fact that last year there was one driver who dominated 95 percent of the race: Denny Hamlin.
There are a few reasons why Hamlin looks good this Saturday. In six starts at Richmond, Hamlin has finished in the Top 5 50 percent of the time. In last year's Crown Royal Hamlin managed 24th, but the two previous spring races Hamlin finished second in 2006 and third in 2007. And if it wasn't for some bad luck last April perhaps he would have won. Hamlin has led for 452 laps and has never had a DNF while his average finish is only bettered by his average start. Besides in his last five races, Hamlin has notched two seconds and a sixth. He's definitely due for a win.
Pick! Denny Hamlin, No.11, (6/1)
2009 Crown Royal 400 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
A quick start to the season has kept Richard Childress Racing's Clint Bowyer in the Top 10 of the Sprint Cup standings. A fourth place finish at Daytona and a second place finish two weeks later at Las Vegas kept Bowyer in the Top 10. April was cruel to Bowyer as his best finish was a 22nd at the Samsung 500 and last week he posted a 39th. Even so, Bowyer is lucky he is in eighth place in the standings, 201 points behind the leader. That said, Bowyer is this race's defending champion. In his career at Richmond Bowyer has completed 2,410 laps without a DNF, has an average finish of 9.3 and last year when he won he started from 31st on the grid. A repeat is not likely but Bowyer has a good team and RCR cars seem to do well on the short tracks. At least you know that with this lucky dog long shot he'll finish the 400 laps.
Pick! Clint Bowyer, 33, (25/1)
2009 Crown Royal 400- Odds for Top 3 Finish
Chances are good that if Denny Hamlin doesn't win the Crown Royal 400 then Johnson will. Johnson is coming off a disappointing 30th place DNF at Talladega , victim of the second "big one" of the afternoon. Johnson was visibly upset after the race but there is no doubt he'll pull it together for Richmond. You won't win a lot by backing No. 48 in this race, but a win is a win. Johnson has won at Richmond the past three of four races and is currently third place and 64-points out of the lead in the Sprint Cup standings. Chances are very good Johnson races with a vengeance this Sunday.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (5/4)
Sprint Cup Series - Crown Royal 400 Top 3 Finish
May 2, 2009 Richmond International Raceway, VA
A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Brian Vickers 12/1
Carl Edwards 3/1
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 15/2
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 6/1
David Ragan 15/1
David Reutimann 15/1
David Stremme 30/1
Denny Hamlin 7/4
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 6/1
Jamie McMurray 15/1
Jeff Burton 10/1
Jeff Gordon 9/4
Jimmie Johnson 5/4
Joey Logano 30/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 18/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Kevin Harvick 15/2
Kurt Busch 9/4
Kyle Busch 7/4
Mark Martin 9/4
Martin Truex Jr. 12/1
Matt Kenseth 15/2
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Ryan Newman 15/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Speed 30/1
Tony Stewart 2/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1
Sprint Cup Series - Odds to win the Crown Royal 400
May 2, 2009 Richmond International Raceway, VA
A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 40/1
Carl Edwards 10/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 25/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20/1
David Ragan 50/1
David Reutimann 50/1
David Stremme 100/1
Denny Hamlin 6/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 20/1
Jamie McMurray 50/1
Jeff Burton 35/1
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Joey Logano 100/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 60/1
Kasey Kahne 40/1
Kevin Harvick 25/1
Kurt Busch 8/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Mark Martin 8/1
Martin Truex Jr. 40/1
Matt Kenseth 25/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Tony Stewart 7/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1
*Odds courtesy of Bodog