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Free Sports Picks: Saturday Oklahoma State at Oklahoma Preview and Free Pick
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 11/27/2009

Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant.

They say when two old rivals get together you can just throw out the record books. That seems like good logic considering the close nature of these past rivalries and the general hatred the teams have for each other. However, when it comes to betting can you throw out the trends too?

No. 12 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET

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The Line
Oklahoma -8
Total 49

The rivalry
The annual Big 12 game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State has been known as the Bedlam game since the first meeting back in 1904 and the series has been absolutely dominated by the Sooners, who lead the series 79-16-7. Oklahoma has won six in a row in the rivalry and has covered four in a row.

Trends
Oklahoma State is 0-4 ATS in their last four games as an underdog
Oklahoma State is 1-4 ATS in their last five games at Oklahoma
Home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 Bedlam games

Bounce Back Saturday
Both teams are looking for a little bit of redemption. Oklahoma State needed a furious fourth quarter rally to avoid an upset at home against Colorado as 17-point favorites. The Sooners, on the other hand, were outclassed at Texas Tech last Saturday. As six-point favorites on the road Oklahoma was rolled over, 41-13.

The Game
Oklahoma State has only had to rebound twice this season from losses. It did so with a 41-24 win against Rice (but it did not cover the spread) and a 34-8 win at Iowa State where it did cover. The disappointing Sooners have plenty of experience bouncing back from losses. After a stunning Week 1 upset to BYU, the Sooners came back with a 64-0 win over Idaho State. After the one-point loss at Miami, Oklahoma pounded Baylor, 33-7. In their other rivalry game, the Sooners lost to Texas, 16-13, but came right back with a resounding 35-13 win at Kansas. A 10-3 loss at Nebraska was following by a 65-10 thumping at Texas A&M. Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS following a loss this season.

If gambling has taught me anything it is look beyond the rankings and the records. How else can you explain 9-2 Oklahoma State, ranked No. 12, being an eight-point underdog against the 6-5 Sooners.

What this game will ultimately come down to is the running game. With a total set at 49 in this usually high-scoring rivalry, you know Las Vegas thinks the same thing too. The Oklahoma defense has shut down opposing rushing attacks to the tune of 91 yards per game, eighth best in the nation. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they rely on their ground game. It is churning out 204 yards per game, 16th best in the nation, but their passing game is only 87th in the country. The injury to Sam Bradford forced Oklahoma to become a more diversified offense and it has, rushing for 141 yards per game on the ground and passing for 284 yards per game.

Look for the Sooners domination in the Bedlam Game to continue. The pick is Oklahoma giving the points.

 


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