Fall Football Preview: Pac-10 Odds and Futures Predictions
by Justin Johnson - 07/09/2009
Message board fodder and mainstream media have painted the picture that the Pac-10 should be renamed the Pac-1 with the recent dominance of the USC Trojans.
There is hope this season for those out west to see a new team atop the standings - whether that is good for the conference is still up for debate.
Arizona (+3000 to win the conference, BetUS)
The Skinny: Arizona finally broke through the glass ceiling and made a bowl in 2008. That success could be short lived, as this year's version will be hard-pressed to repeat. The losses of QB Willi Tuitama, WR Mike Thomas, and OT Eben Britton will hurt the offense. Sophomore signal callers Matt Scott and Nick Foles will compete to fit into Sonny Dykes explosive high-scoring attack.
Value: None. The Wildcats lost all five games last year by 10 points or less, which is usually a signal that a team can make a run the following season. However, losing three of their best players does not indicate potential success - at least in terms of a Pac-10 title. Rob Gronkowksi is one of the best tight ends in the college ranks but he alone won't be enough to help the Wildcats back to a bowl.
Arizona State (+2000, BetUS)
The Skinny: Arizona State Head Coach Dennis Erickson has never had back-to-back losing seasons in his 20 years of college coaching. That streak could be tested this year as ASU is coming off a five-win season in which they did not beat a single Football Bowl Subdivision team with a winning record and they are also forced to replace four-year starting quarterback Rudy Carpenter.
Value: None. Despite bringing back one of the best front sevens in the country, the offense will not be able to produce enough points to get ASU to a bowl or scare the top teams in the conference. If heralded linebacker Vontaze Burfict can get eligible he could start immediately and be a huge force in the Pac-10.
California (+500, BetUS)
The Skinny: The Golden Bears have a golden opportunity to stake claim to a Pac-10 title in 2009. QB Kevin Riley returns and should straighten out his up-and-down play with experience. Also back are RB's Jahvid Best - who is already getting Heisman talk - and his backup Shane Vareen. Both backs averaged better than 5.0 yards per carry last season and can improve on that behind an offensive line averaging 6-5 and 312 lbs.
Value: Good. The Bears have USC at home this year and if they defend the home field they can make a run through the conference. Eight starters are back from a defense that forced 34 turnovers and held nine opponents under 20 points.
Oregon (+500, BetUS)
The Skinny: The official change has been made from Mike Bellotti to Chip Kelly and for the most part people in Eugene will not notice a difference. With QB Jeremiah Masoli and RB LeGarrette Blount the Ducks will most likely end the season in the Top 5 in the nation in rushing. However many points the offense scores the questions still lie on defense as Oregon allowed five teams to score 30 or more points on them - and that squad had four players drafted into the NFL.
Value: Good. The Ducks have both Cal and USC at home and if they can hold serve in those big games the Ducks could not only be positioned for a Pac-10 title but with potential wins over Boise State and Utah early in the season this could put the Ducks in the national title discussion. The linebackers should be the strength of the defense but improved secondary play is a must.
Oregon State (+1000, BetUS)
The Skinny: Oregon State is consistently dismissed and written off in the preseason so why should this season be any different? The Beavers trail only USC for the most wins in the Pac-10 the past three seasons and they have even defeated the Trojans twice (both in Corvallis on Thursday night games). This year the Beavers bring back Jacquizz Rodgers on offense but lose eight starters on defense, which is a clear cause for concern.
Value: Some. The Beavers have had to replace players on defense before and have come out none worse for the wear as defensive coordinator Mark Banker frequently subs players on the front seven and gets underclassmen regular playing time. The hard sell for winning the conference would be the need to win on the road against Cal, USC, and Oregon in the Civil War.
Stanford (+3300, BetUS)
The Skinny: Jim Harbaugh's stock is on the rise but his team does not have the talent on the field to win the Pac-10 just yet. The Cardinal will turn to highly-touted prospect Andrew Luck at the quarterback position and hope that Toby Gerhart can return to form as he was expecting to go to the MLB but did not get drafted. The defense finished in the bottom half in most defensive categories last season and will need to improve if they want to end an eight-year bowl drought.
Value: None. The Cardinal simply will not win the Pac-10 this year and despite a good return on the money line it would be wasting money at this point, barring a miracle.
UCLA (+1000, BetUS)
The Skinny: Rick Neuheisel's return to UCLA did not go as planned as the Bruins limped to a 4-8 finish in 2008. UCLA will need to rely heavily on their defense this season and get good -- or at least consistent -- play out of Kevin Prince, who won the quarterback job in the spring.
Value: Poor. The Briuns are most likely still the fifth or sixth best team in the league even with one of the most talented defenses on the field. Most teams see an improvement in a new coach's second season and that is expected for the Bruins, but they are still not ready to catch USC, Oregon or Cal for the top spot.
USC (-375, BetUS)
The Skinny: Year in and year out USC replaces NFL talent with NFL talent and this year is expected to be no different. The Trojans will most likely start in the Top 5 of most every preseason poll and deservedly so, but the consistent loss of talent and assistant coaches may catch up to them this season.
Value: Poor. It's weird to think that a team that has finished in the Top 5 in the nation the past seven seasons is a poor value play, but that could very well be the case. The Trojans do return all five starters on the offensive line as well as two backups that have starting experience but will be breaking in Aaron Corp at quarterback. Despite the glut of talent in the backfield they do not have a clear-cut leader. The defense will have to replace most of their front seven and this could be the biggest problem area on the team. Taylor Mays returns to lead the defense from his safety position.
Washington (+7500, BetUS)
The Skinny: The Huskies went winless last season and were only moderately competitive in three games, which cost Tyrone Willingham his job. Enter former USC assistant Steve Sarkisian. The good news is that there is talent on the roster in Seattle but the bad news is there isn't enough to expect more than three wins this season.
Value: None. Jake Locker may play like Tim Tebow but he certainly has not become the winner that Tebow has become. Between Locker, RB Chris Polk, and the WR duo of D'Andre Goodwin and Jermaine Kearse, the offense could be more explosive. The defense was terrible in 2008, only holding three teams to less than 30 points. Nick Holt has come with Sarkisian to turn the Huskies around. This may be a taller task that climbing the Space Needle.
Washington State (+10000, BetUS)
The Skinny: The Cougars are pretty awful. Their quarterback, Kevin Lopina, threw no touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2008 and despite this they still beat Washington in the Apple Cup. This year looks to be more of the same as Wazzou has minimal talent on the offensive line and lacks depth at wide receiver. They could lean on Cal transfer James Montgomery at RB to move the ball, but his success is not a given.
Value: None. The Cougars gave up almost 45 points per game in 2008, and even if they make a sound improvement on that number they are certainly not close to winning a conference title.