NASCAR: Samsung 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 04/04/2009
Carl Edwards will look to win his third consecutive race in the Lone Star State, and his first race of this season, as NASCAR goes from the circuit’s slowest track and heads to one of the circuit’s fastest tracks, Texas Motor Speedway, Sunday at 2:15 p.m. for the Samsung 500.
Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile oval with 24-degree banked turns and a surface that turns slicker as the temperatures change throughout the day, putting a premium on tires and a driver’s ability to change with the surface conditions. If you are going on Sunday make sure you get your Amdro Fire Ant Bait pre-race credentials because not only will it enable you to meet the drivers and get into the pits but you’ll also be able to get some hot-blooded pre-race concert action by 80s super-group Foreigner.
Who will win the Samsung 500?
Last weekend I tied Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch with two wins in 2009 as I correctly picked Jimmie Johnson (4/1) to win at Martinsville. While Johnson has been off to a slow start this year the win in Virginia shows how dangerous a driver Johnson is. Kicked to the back of the pack after the restart early on in the Goody’s 500, he managed to work his way to first and nudge Denny Hamlin out of the way to win his first race of 2009.
Denny Hamlin must be a bit exasperated after being shoved into his second consecutive second-place finish. Two weeks ago Hamlin came in second to teammate Kyle Busch and last week to JJ. Hamlin. He did well at TMS last spring when he improved on his 14th starting position on the grid to finish in the Top 5, but in fall did not do nearly as well as he finished 17th. Earlier this year at Atlanta, which is another cookie cutter and very similar to TMS in configuration, Hamlin finished third. Hamlin also has the third best average finish at TMS at 11.60, behind Johnson’s 9.60 and Kenseth’s 7.60.
Leaving the short-tracks and coming into TMS also plays to Johnson’s strengths as a driver. While Johnson finished 15th last fall at TMS, it was only the third time in 11 tries that he finished out of the Top 10 at TMS. And last fall Johnson already had the points lead in the Chase and was protecting his lead rather than driving for the win. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Johnson wins at Texas and then wins a third in a row at Phoenix. However, this week I like another driver to be first when they wave the checkers.
Pick! Kyle Busch, No. 18, (5/1)
2009 Samsung 500– Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
Jaime McMurray finished in the Top 10 three out of his first four times at Bristol then only had one Top 10 finish in his last eight races. Last week at Martinsville McMurray managed his first Top 10 finish since Las Vegas when he finished ninth. This was good enough to move him to 22nd in the Sprint Cup standings. However, lost in the stats is that McMurray and his team had a good car in the beginning of the season. Historically, McMurray has always run well at Texas and getting him back on the mile-and-a-half could work wonders after two weeks of short-track racing. McMurray has come in the Top 10 three of the last four races at Texas. In the 2005 April race McMurray started 31st and raced his spoiler off to finish in second place. TMS is considered a Roush Fenway-friendly track which one reason why I like McMurray as my Lucky Dog long odds Lone Star State special.
Pick! Jaime McMurray, No. 26, (35/1)
2009 Samsung 500 – Odds for Top 3 Finish
After winning the first two races of the year with Matt Kenseth, Rousch Fenway Racing has not enjoyed close to the same success as they did early this year. In fact Kenseth is now 12th in the Sprint Cup standings, Greg Biffle is 23rd, McMurray 22nd David Ragan is 30th while Edwards is in eighth place. Not exactly where RFR thought they’d be at this point in the season especially after Edwards closed last season winning three of four races. This weekend you’ll hear a lot of talk about how TMS is Edwards’ favorite track. However, favorite or not RFR’s Fords have not run consistently well since California. One exception to his not-as-great-as-expected year was at Atlanta. Edwards has won three times at AMS and finished third there for his best finish of the year. While a lot of experts expect Edwards to do his first back-flip of the season, I see a result similar to AMS at Texas this Sunday.
Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (7/5)
Odds to finish in the Top 3 - Samsung 500
Texas Motor Speedway, April 5, 2:15 p.m.
A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Brian Vickers 15/2
Carl Edwards 7/5
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 6/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 6/1
David Ragan 10/1
David Reutimann 12/1
David Stremme 30/1
Denny Hamlin 4/1
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 7/2
Jamie McMurray 10/1
Jeff Burton 15/2
Jeff Gordon 2/1
Jimmie Johnson 2/1
Joey Logano 30/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 22/1
Kasey Kahne 9/1
Kevin Harvick 6/1
Kurt Busch 2/1
Kyle Busch 7/5
Mark Martin 6/1
Martin Truex Jr. 22/1
Matt Kenseth 7/2
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Ryan Newman 18/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Speed30/1
Tony Stewart 6/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1
Sprint Cup Series - Odds to win the Samsung 500
Texas Motor Speedway, April 5, 2:15 p.m.
A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 25/1
Carl Edwards 5/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 20/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20/1
David Ragan 35/1
David Reutimann 40/1
David Stremme 100/1
Denny Hamlin 15/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 12/1
Jamie McMurray 35/1
Jeff Burton 25/1
Jeff Gordon 7/1
Jimmie Johnson 7/1
Joey Logano 100/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 75/1
Kasey Kahne 30/1
Kevin Harvick 20/1
Kurt Busch 7/1
Kyle Busch 5/1
Mark Martin 20/1
Martin Truex Jr. 75/1
Matt Kenseth 12/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 60/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Speed100/1
Tony Stewart 20/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1