UFC 95 Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 02/19/2009
It's time for another UFC event. UFC 95 won't be quite the spectacle that the bigger events are - it lacks a big headline event, and it's not a pay-per-view event. That's not all bad, though - it will be available on free TV, so that leaves you with more money to bet on the fights. Incidentally, the fights will be shown on Spike on a tape-delayed basis because the event is in London and the time zones don't work out. If you have dumb friends then you could make a killing by betting on the fights you are watching when you already know the results. If you are more honest than that then you'll want to make sure you bet early to avoid missing the fights. Here's a look at the card, with all odds from Bodog:
Diego Sanchez (-325) vs. Joe Stevenson (+250) - This is the main event, which tells you the general caliber of the card. These guys are lightweights, but they aren't exactly megastars. Stevenson is a reasonably big guy for a lightweight. His striking and wrestling skills are only decent, but he shines when it comes to earning a submission. His future seemed to be very bright, but he has lost his last two fights to bring him back to earth a bit. One of those losses was to Kenny Florian, who has also beaten Sanchez. Sanchez is almost the match of Stevenson on submissions, and he is much better when it comes to wrestling and takedowns. There's a big question, though - Sanchez is moving down to lightweight for the first time, and we've seen multiple examples of how hard dropping down is for a fighter. Sanchez has an overall edge, but it's not nearly as big as the price indicates. That puts the value on Stevenson.
Pick: Joe Stevenson
Demian Maia (-270) vs. Chael Sonnen (+210) - Maia is undefeated in nine career fights. That's impressive, but you shouldn't read too much into it - he's been largely one-dimensional and has never had to stand and strike. Luckily, he probably won't have to here, either. Sonnen is a natural wrestler who will try to get this to the ground quickly. That will make this matchup strength against strength. Sonnen is good, but Maia is going to be too much for him. The UFC likes having unbeaten fighters to promote, and they like to put them in spots that give them a chance to stay that way.
Pick: Demian Maia
Nate Marquardt (-325) vs. Wilson Gouveia (+250) - This is a good fight between two middleweight submission specialists. Gouveia is a big guy for his weight class. He's also better than he gets credit for. That being said, I think that he is outmatched here. Marquardt is a very good fighter, and is just a couple of bad breaks away from being a huge star. His price is more than justified here.
Pick: Nate Marquardt
Josh Koscheck (-550) vs. Paulo Thiago (+350) - Thiago is undefeated, but he's making his UFC debut, and he is taking a huge step in up in class. Too much of one. Koscheck is good, and this is nothing more than a formal sparring session for him. Or at least it will be if he is focused. I hate betting chalky favorites, but I hate losing more.
Pick: Josh Koscheck
Dan Hardy (even) vs. Rory Markham (-130) - These guys are both determined strikers, so this is the closest thing to a boxing match that the UFC has to offer. They are well matched and both reasonably talented. Hardy's price is better, and he's a Brit so he'll have lots of support. That makes him worth a look.
Pick: Dan Hardy
Terry Etim (-240) vs. Brian Cobb (+190) - Cobb has had a decent career so far, but he is making his UFC debut. That's a hard thing to do, and it takes a special fighter to be worthy of support in his first fight. Etim matches up well physically, and he also has the advantage of fighting in front of a friendly local crowd.
Pick: Terry Etim
Junior Dos Santos (-290) vs. Stefan Struve (+230) - Struve has 16 wins in 18 fights, but this is his first time in the UFC. He's in tough against Dos Santos. The Brazilian heavyweight knocked Fabricio Werdum out in his last fight. That's not easy to do.
Pick: Junior Dos Santos
Per Eklund (-170) vs. Evan Dunham (+140) - Dunham is yet another fighter making his UFC debut. He's undefeated in seven fights. Eklund is more of an established veteran. He's not overly impressive, though. As much as I don't like picking rookies, I think that's where the value is this time.
Pick: Evan Dunham
Paul Kelly (-325) vs. Troy Mandaloniz (+250) - I have high hopes for this fight. Both guys are strikers who throw a mean punch and can take a blow without a problem. They should stay on their feet and beat on each other. Kelly is a bit more experienced and a bit more talented. That gives him the edge, as the price indicates.
Pick: Paul Kelly