College Football Odds: Conference Winner Props
by Frank Doyle of Sports Interaction - 6/29/2011
The big news in College football this week is that former North Carolina State quarterback Russell Wilson has committed to Wisconsin. There has seldom been a more dangerous cat among the Big Ten pigeons than the one that will stand under centre for the Badgers if Wilson wins the starter’s job (like he would have left the Wolfpack to ride the pine in the first place).
The conference was in flux to begin with - Nebraska arrived from the Big 12 over the summer, and only a few weeks ago Jim Tressel came tumbling out of the firmament as coach of Ohio State. The Big Ten is there for whoever wants it, and suddenly Wisconsin looks a really good bet.
The Badgers are second favorites at Sports Interaction behind the Cornhuskers to win the Big Ten – Nebraska is +250 and Wisconsin is +275 but Badger bettors are advised to get their bets on quickly if they feel it’s a good thing. That price surely won’t last once the implications of Wilson’s arrival sink in.
Wisconsin’s season opens with six home games, and the Badgers will probably be favorites in five of them. The big circle on every Badgers’ calendar is October 1st, when Nebraska visits Madison. That’ll be one hell of a game, as both sides will most likely be undefeated and eager to make a statement.
The only division that seems open and shut is the Big 12, where the Sooners are a red hot -222 favorite for the title, and one of the ante-post favorites for the National Championship itself. Oklahoma is a veteran team and it certainly stomped all over the relatively helpless Huskies in the Fiesta Bowl, but it’s still hard to fully like the Sooners at that price unless Bud Wilkinson is coach and Eisenhower is president.
The ACC looks like it’s between the Seminoles and Hokies, whom we offer at +175 each. Miami is third favorite at +400. It’s open in the Big East with South Florida and West Virginia at +250 but it’s unlikely that anyone from either of these conferences will be present in the BCS Championship Game.
The Pac 10 is more competitive with Oregon an early +125 favorite over Stanford at +250 and wild card Utah at +500. But the real action conference, as it has been for years, is the SEC.
Alabama is the favorite at +170, Florida is at +175 (a price based on the Gators’ being in the Eastern division as much as anything that’s going on in Gainesville) and LSU is the real value bet at +450.
You could even say that LSU’s season is actually sixty minutes long, because the Tigers’ first game is against Oregon at Arlington. If LSU wins, it’s a national contender. If not, it will be very hard to undo the damage in the next eleven games. Can’t wait.