Parity in the NFL “over/under” line results continued for the fourth straight week as during this time frame 28 games have gone over, 25 games have stayed under and two games ended in a “push”. My top three picks last week took a downward turn to 1-2, leaving me at 11-8-1 over the past seven weeks and barely over .500 at 14-12-1 on the year. I have been back at it hard this week in an effort to turn things around with a few rock-solid winners for Week 11 in the NFL.
Each week of the NFL regular season, my goal is to uncover the value in the total line in an effort to find some golden opportunities to cash in on a few bad lines. The following are my top three over/under plays for this week in the NFL with lines provided by BetOnline. (All times EST).
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Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 51.5
Do not look now, but Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are steamrolling their way back into the thick of the NFC playoff picture. The offense has racked up an average of 31.8 points a game during the team’s current four-game winning streak, including 42 points against Houston on the road in Week 6.
Detroit continues to alternate wins with losses as basically a .500 team, but its offense is still ranked first in the league in passing and second overall. The problem has been a defense that looks good on paper as far as total yards allowed but lousy on the scoreboard in giving up an average of 24.7 points a game, including 34 to Minnesota in last Sunday’s loss.
Game Betting Trends
The total line opened at 51.5 and has held steady considering the game will be played on the fast track of Ford Field’s dome. The total has gone over in five of the Packers last six games and in eight of the Lions last 11 games overall. The last time these two met, Green Bay came out on top in a 45-41 shootout. While the score will not be that high this time around, look for these two teams to combine for more than 51 points.
Game Pick- OVER
San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos (4:25 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 48.5
With the exception of an ugly 7-6 loss to Cleveland, the Chargers’ offense led by Philip Rivers has still managed to score and average of 28 points a game in spite of a 2-4 record over their last six games. The problem has been a defense that has surrendered 30 points or more in three of San Diego’s last five games.
Denver is back on top in the AFC this season behind the second coming of Peyton Manning, who may be even better than he was before injuring his neck back in 2010. He has guided the Broncos’ suddenly high-powered offense to an average of 30.1 points a game this season, which is ranked second in the NFL.
Game Betting Trends
The total is currently set at 48.5 which is exactly where it opened. Scanning Sunday’s forecast for Mile High Stadium, weather should not be a factor with sunny skies and highs near 60. This should set the stage for another high-scoring affair between these two AFC West rivals considering that the total has gone over in nine of the last 13 meetings overall and in five of the last six games played in Denver.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 p.m. NBC)
Total Line: 41
Baltimore’s edge in the AFC North is down to just one game despite winning six of its last seven outings. It has been a mixed bag for the offense during this stretch with 55 points last week against Oakland, but just nine points in a Week 5 win over Kansas City and 13 points in a Week 7 loss to Houston. It could very easily find its hands full on Sunday night against the NFL’s No.1-ranked defense.
The Steelers will have major problems of their own trying to manufacture points with Ben Roethlisberger listed as “out” with an injured throwing shoulder. In his place will be Byron Leftwich, who has not started a game in the last two seasons. Pittsburgh will now have to rely heavily on a defense that has been instrumental in the team’s current four-game winning streak that has gotten it back into the division race.
Game Betting Trends
The total line has been all over the board to start but has settled in at 41 after Roethlisberger was officially declared as out. Weather will not be an issue at Heinz Field on Sunday night, but quite frankly I am shocked at such a high line considering the loss of Big Ben. Recent trends favor a higher-scoring game with the total going over in the last three meetings, but I am banking on a low-scoring dogfight between two teams that really cannot stand each other.
Game Prediction: UNDER
YTD Record: 14-12-1
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