All season long we have been trying to hammer the book with our ‘best bets’ on the total line in the NFL and did a fairly good job with an overall record of 29-20-2. We went on to come out on the plus side of the ledger in the playoffs, but now it is time to sharpen our pencils even more on an already sharp total line for Super Bowl XLVI. This article will explain a little about betting the Super Bowl ‘over’ and ‘under’, and also give some free Super Bowl picks for the total.

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Super Bowl XLVI Overview

At the start of the regular season, Bodog had The New York Giants at 12/1 odds to win the NFC and 25/1 to win the Super Bowl. The funny thing is the over/under on their win total was 9.5 and they finished the year 9-7. The Giants were the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde team with a 6-2 start, a 1-5 slide, and two clutch victories down the stretch to squeeze into the playoffs as the fourth seed by virtue of winning the NFC East.

The New England Patriots were the favored son of the AFC and a 3/1 favorite to win the conference. They were also a slight favorite over Green Bay to win the Super Bowl at 13/2 and had a win total of 11.5. They did not disappoint with a 13-3 record that earned them a No.1 seed for the playoffs.

The one constant with both these two teams all season long was their ability to put points on the board. Even when the Giants were in the midst of their slide, they posted 35 points on the Packers in a loss and 37 points on Dallas in a win. They pinned 29 points on their city rival the Jets and 31 points on the Cowboys again to close out the regular season and nailed the Packers for 37 more points in the playoffs.

The Patriots averaged 32.1 points a game and scored 30 or more points in 12 of their 16 regular season games. The put up 45 on Denver in the Divisional Round of the playoffs and squeezed out 23 against Baltimore’s shutdown defense in the AFC Championship Game.

Defensively, neither team was stellar on paper, but both got the job done when they had to. New York gave up an average of 25 points a game and was ranked 29th against the pass and 27th in total yards allowed. While the defense certainly tightened things up in the playoffs, it still gave up 388 total yards to Green Bay, which was the only legitimate offense it faced.

New England’s defense gave up yards in bunches and finished the regular season ranked 31st against the pass and in total yards allowed. This did not always translate to a big number on the scoreboard, but the Patriots were still ranked 15th in points allowed; giving-up an average of 21.4 points a game. They, too, stepped things up in the postseason, but the Ravens’ Joe Flacco still threw for 306 yards and two touchdowns in the AFC Championship Game.

Super Bowl Over and Under Betting Trends

The total line for next Sunday has opened at 55.5 and so far most of the books have followed suit. BetOnline and WagerWeb are slightly lower at 55. Probably the only good thing about the Super Bowl being in Indianapolis is that the game is indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium. This will ensure a fast track for two teams that both know how to quickly go up and down the field. The real money on this game has yet to come in, but given the offensive firepower of both teams, the total line should not dip any lower unless something crazy happens between now and then.

Looking at some past trends for both teams, the total has gone over in four of the Giants last five games that were not played at their home stadium. It has also gone over in five of their last seven games as underdogs. The total has gone over in 24 of the Patriots last 32 games as favorites and in 22 of their last 29 games overall.

The total has stayed under in four of their last five meetings, including the Giants 17-14 victory in the 2008 Super Bowl with the total set at 54.5 points, but all five of those games were played outdoors.

In the next 10 days or so, every possible aspect of this Super Bowl rematch will be analyzed ad nauseum, but on a fast track against suspect secondaries, the points are going to add up quickly.

Super Bowl XLVI Prediction: New England 31, New York 28

Doc’s Sports editorial team will provide a ton of free Super Bowl content including betting the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl handicapping, betting on the Super Bowl over and under, and much more. Doc’s Sports handicappers will also offer expert football picks for the game for just $25, including prop bets along with the side and total. Also check out our Sportsbook bonus page here for the best in Super Bowl deposit bonuses.