Navy (8-4) vs. Wake Forest (7-5)
Conference Matchup: Independent vs. ACC
Date: Dec 20, 2008, 11:00 a.m.
Location: RFK Memorial Stadium, Washington, D.C.
Spread: Wake Forest -3

A lot of people might not have thought that we needed any new bowls, but we have two this year, including the EagleBank Bowl. This one is never destined to become a classic - whenever possible it will pit Army or Navy against the ninth best ACC team. Still, it's a game with a spread that we can bet on. What more could you want?

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Unlike most bowls, these two teams have already played this year. Navy won on the road as 17-point underdogs at the end of September. A lot has changed since then - as hard as it is to believe, the Deacons were actually ranked for that game. This wasn't supposed to be a rematch - Maryland was set to be the ACC team, but the school had finals that week, so Wake Forest stepped in.

Line Movement

This thing is stuck at the key number of three, and it's not going anywhere. Action is evenly split between the two teams, so there won't be any pressure to move it.

There is no second option for Navy

Navy can cover if they can establish the run early and often. If not, they will lose. Period. Navy's offense is as one-dimensional as any in the country - they have the top-ranked running attack and the second worst passing game. The last time the teams met Navy ran for 313 yards and passed for 51. Those 51 yards came on only four attempts, and one of those attempts was just barely not a lateral. Though the run clearly worked well the first time there is no guarantee that it will happen again. The Wake Forest defense, led by Butkus Award-winning linebacker Aaron Curry, had the 21st-ranked rush defense even including the Navy game, so they will be no pushover. Navy was outgained on the ground in their last two losses, and they had no way to overcome that - this is a team that had 760 total passing yards on the season. Navy is so committed to the run that they became the first team in 11 years to not attempt a pass in a game when they beat up on SMU.

It's all on Skinner's shoulders

Wake Forest QB Riley Skinner can play a competent, mistake-free game when he wants to. He needs to now. Skinner is far from a great quarterback, but he can manage a game sufficiently. He largely sets the tone for the team, though - every time he throws an interception the team loses. He doesn't need to be Dan Marino, but he does need to be much better than he was against Navy last time. In that game he threw four of his seven interceptions on the season, and essentially handed Navy the win. If Wake Forest can balance the turnover battle more effectively then they should be able to win. It will be a challenge for Skinner - Navy hasn't allowed a point in more than nine quarters, and is playing their best ball of the season.

Eerily similar for bettors

Navy was 6-5 ATS on the season - just slightly better than Wake Forest at 5-6 ATS. Both teams went under seven times in 11 games. Both were 2-2 ATS in their last four. There is no overt reason to favor one team over the other.

Weather could be a factor

This is one of the few games in which the weather could be a factor. Most bowls are played in sunny southern climates or in domes, but this is good old-fashioned northern winter football. It could be ugly. The forecast is decent so far, but much can change between now and kickoff. The worse the weather is, the bigger edge Navy and their pure running game will have.

After completing this article view our college football totals page. Doc's Sports online sportsbook bonus page is and excellent college football resource as well. Our New Mexico bowl preview page is also a valuable tool for your college football research. Since 1971 Doc's Sports has been recognized as a leader and trusted name in sports handicapping information.

Trends of Note

Navy is 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games, though they have lost their last two straight up. Navy is also 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.

Wake Forest has not followed success with success. The last four times they have secured an ATS win they have followed it up with an ATS loss.

Wake Forest has gone under in their last four bowl games. Navy has gone over in their last four bowl games, and have gone over in eight of their last 10 games against the ACC.