Northern Illinois (6-6) vs Louisiana Tech (7-5)
Conference Matchup: Mid-American vs. Sun Belt
Date: Dec. 28
Location: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
Spread: Northern Illinois -1.5; total 47.0

A lack of bowl eligible teams from the SEC and Big 12 conferences this season has had a negative effect on the Independence Bowl, what usually is a top late-December bowl game. Rather than inviting two teams from the two hottest conferences in the country this year, the SEC and Big 12, the Independence Bowl had to settle for a MAC team and a local team from the Sun Belt, Louisiana Tech, that is basically playing a home game.

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Line Movement

The over has held steady at 47 while public action and has knocked Northern Illinois down from field goal favorites to giving 1.5 points.

The Husky Roller Coaster Ride

NIU came out of the gate as one of the top bets in the country. It covered four consecutive spreads to start the season, including a close call at Neyland Stadium, losing, 13-9, against Tennessee as 16.5-point underdogs. After the Tennessee loss, Northern Illinois won three straight conference games to get into the MAC title game discussion. However, a 45-14 thrashing by Ball State sent the Huskies into a late season tailspin. The team dropped three of its last four games and failed to cover in four of the team’s last five contests. The season may have reached a low point after a 16-0 shutout loss to Navy in the regular season finale as three-point favorites.

Home For The Holiday’s

Louisiana Tech is used to staying home for bowl season and this year is no different. Fortunately for the Bulldogs, the team will participate in a bowl game for the first time since 2001 and even more fortunate for the team is that they will not have to travel far to do it. Home has been where the wins are for La. Tech. After an opening season win over the Bulldogs of the SEC and Mississippi State as seven-point underdogs, La. Tech went on to finish 5-1 SU at home and 4-1 ATS at home.

Will It Come to Pass?

Neither of the teams likes to pass the ball much but if the situation arises where a team will have to pass the ball the advantage swings drastically to the Northern Illinois’ corner. The Huskies pass defense ranks No. 5 in the NCAA while the Louisiana Tech secondary ranks as the third worst in the country.

Against the spread

Backers of both teams have traded money back-and-forth most of the season. Northern Illinois went 6-5 ATS this season while La. Tech was 5-6 ATS.

Conference Advantage

The Sun-Belt won both previous meetings between these two conferences this year. In week four, UL-Lafayette blew past Kent State, 44-27, as two-point favorites and the next week Florida International pulled off one of the biggest upsets and comebacks of the season. Trailing 13-0 after the first quarter as 18.5-point underdogs, FIU of the Sun Belt stormed back to crush Toledo, 35-16.

Looking back further, La. Tech has had success against the number vs. the MAC, going 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings with MAC teams.

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Bowl Trends

The Independence Bowl, in recent history, has generally been a high-scoring affair with the favorite usually covering. The last three Independence Bowls all played over the total and the favorites are 4-1 ATS in the last five bowl games.

Key Stat

8-1

Since 1997 when the Independence Bowl hosts a team from Louisiana or a local state like Alabama or Mississippi, the “home” team is 8-1, including Alabama’s 30-24 win over Colorado last year. The last Louisiana team to play in the bowl game was LSU in 1997. The Bayou Bengals were 27-9 victors over Notre Dame.