Rutgers (7-5) vs. Ball State (7-5)

Conference match-up: Big East vs. MAC
Date: Jan.5, 2008
Location: Toronto, Canada
Spread: Rutgers -10

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If you tried to correlate the spread with the records of both teams, you might be confused. Well, that's because Rutgers, who started the season as high as No. 10, plummeted to a very disappointing 7-5 and was relegated north of the border for postseason play. So you might ask why a number so high? Then we start to talk about the Ball State defense. Paper-thin and soft enough to blow your nose through it, now it must deal with the likes of Ray Rice and the Rutgers team speed. The best medical cure for that just might be Nate Davis and the Cardinals offense that can match the Scarlet Knights point for point. Both teams average over 31 per game, and we'll see both put together a high scoring affair. That being said, the million-dollar question coming in will be which Rutgers defense will show up?

Rutgers can cover if: they get back to their ball-hawking, blitz-swarming defense that nearly earned them a Big East championship last season. This year was nothing like 2006, but one constant was senior running back Ray Rice, who accounted for over 1,700 yards and 20 touchdowns. He'll have no problem gaining over 150 yards in this one, so he needs to be relied upon. But when Rutgers does choose to throw the ball with Mike Teel, he cannot turn it over. If he makes mistakes, it will cancel out everything the Knights achieve on the ground. Let Rice carry the ball 30 times in his final college game. Not only will he carry this team down the field throughout the game if he does so, but also pounding him on the ground will keep Davis and the Ball State offense on the sidelines.

Ball State can cover if: Nate Davis is just as effective as he was in the regular season. The second-year signal caller had a wonderful sophomore season, throwing for over 3,300 yards and 27 touchdowns to just six interceptions. Everyone and their brother knows the Cardinals defense will be the weak part in this game, so Davis will come into this matchup knowing a 30-point performance might be necessary. The one positive going up against the speedy Rutgers defense is they have been shaky all season allowing points. They gave up 28 to Cincinnati, 31 to West Virginia and 41 to Louisville; Rutgers has struggled with spread-style attacks and Ball State can produce offense just as effectively as the three previously mentioned programs. Ball State will get their points; they just need to avoid feeding any extra momentum to Rutgers with silly mistakes.

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General notes: Ball State is still fairly new to this bowl thing. The Cardinals have yet to earn a victory, just 0-4-1 all-time in bowl games. Last season Rutgers capped off its impressive rise-to-fame season with a 37-10 victory over Kansas State in the 2006 Texas Bowl. This year up against a mid-major who is looking for some exposure for their own program, expect a much more competitive game. This is only the second ever International Bowl, as Cincinnati defeated Western Michigan last year in Toronto for its inaugural game.