Central Florida (10-3) vs. Mississippi State (7-5)

Conference Matchup: Conference USA vs. SEC
Date: Dec. 29
Location: Memphis
Spread: Central Florida -2.5

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This game provides several interesting angles, of course chief among them being the coming out party for Kevin Smith, Central Florida's running back who led the nation in rushing but failed to receive so much as an invitation to the Heisman Trophy ceremony. Smith put up eye-popping numbers with 2,448 yards and 29 TDs, yet he went largely ignored for recognition by the national media as players from mid-major schools often do. This will be his stage to prove to the country that his breakout season was no fluke and he is certain to get more national respect if he has monster game against a team from the SEC, which is generally recognized as the nation's toughest conference. If Smith and the Golden Knights are successful, they will spoil the other story in this game, which is the culmination of the rebuilding project at Mississippi State by Sylvester Croom. The coach took over a program that had fallen on hard times and has taken its share of lumps on the way back up. A season-opening 45-0 thumping by LSU did not make Bulldogs fans excited about this team's prospects, but they bounced back amid a brutal schedule to finish with a winning record and surprising wins against Alabama, Kentucky and Auburn, the latter two of which came on the road. They beat rival Mississippi, 17-14, in their final game to ensure the bowl bid and ensure the firing of Rebels coach Ed Orgeron. But the Golden Knights do not lack for momentum, either; they have won their last seven by an average of 19 points and came within three points of upsetting Texas in week 2.

Central Florida can cover if: the Golden Knights can prove their recent run of dominating victories wasn't entirely the product of meager competition in Conference USA. Kevin Smith had one of the most prolific rushing seasons in major college football history, averaging 188 yards per game, two touchdowns per game and 32 carries per game. Although he has been humble publicly, going as far as saying his team has "something more important" in its conference championship than the individual Heisman award, you would have to think he and his teammates would be a little motivated by the fact that not only was Smith not a candidate, but another running back, Darren McFadden, was getting the sympathy for finishing second. Smith and the Golden Knights certainly wouldn't mind having a good showing on the national stage, proving he belonged in the Heisman mix and providing the school with its first-ever 11-win season. Quarterback Kyle Israel also has thrown for more than 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns against eight interceptions as the Knights have put up an average of 38 points per game. The Central Florida defense was suspect early in the season but, after yielding 62 points to South Florida in a loss, it has improved. UAB's 31 points was the most scored against UCF in the past seven weeks, and the Golden Knights won that game, 45-31.

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Mississippi State can cover if: the Bulldogs decide that they are going to spoil Smith's turn in the national spotlight and take the stage for some recognition of their own. While its rush defense gives up 159 yards per game, just 66th nationally, that number has to be taken into perspective considering the strength of the players and teams Mississippi State has faced in the SEC, including Jacob Hester and LSU, Steve Slaton and West Virginia and McFadden and Arkansas. That's respectable defense against such a high level of competition. The Bulldogs also rank 10th nationally against the pass, allowing just 180 yards per game. However, they tend to plod along on offense and would prefer a grind-it-out, low scoring game as they average just 22 points per contest, which is among the worst in the nation. Anthony Dixon leads the rushing attack with 980 yards and 13 touchdowns while Christian Ducre has 467 yards. Quarterback Wesley Carroll has thrown for just 1,353 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions.

General Notes: The Knights are 4-1 ATS against teams with winning records, but just 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 non-conference games. The Bulldogs are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of three points or fewer.