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Article Archives 2













2009 Masters Golf Odds and Predictions
by Matt Severance - 04/07/2009

One of the great things about the Masters, even if you normally don't bet on golf, is the variety of prop bets available. Much like the NFL's Super Bowl, the books trot out plenty of unique options for what is probably golf's Super Bowl.

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For example, if you are convinced that Tiger Woods is a mortal lock to win his fifth green jacket, WagerWeb offers other options such as Top U.S. Player other than Woods, Top European Player, Top South African Player and Top Young Gun. I also thoroughly enjoy the tournament matchup betting, where you can wager on a particular two-man matchup - say Lefty vs. Tiger, Sergio vs. Harrington or even 2008 winner Trevor Immelman vs. 1992 winner Fred Couples. And of course, you can just bet on whom you think will win.

Here are a few 2009 Masters golf predictions including odds that I recommend (or don't) and why: Don't fall into the trap of taking the big odds on one of the young stars such as Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim or Camilo Villegas to win this tournament. The average age of first-year winners is 31.56 years, with only 17 winners in tournament history under the age of 30. And don't dare bet on a guy to win in his first Masters, as that's happened just three times (including the first-ever Masters) and not since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

I do like the matchup bet of Padraig Harrington, who goes for his third straight major, against Tiger. I'm not saying either will win, but Paddy is getting +210 against Tiger on WagerWeb, which is the second-highest number of all the tournament matchups on that site (only behind Geoff Ogilvy's +220 against Tiger; Phil Mickelson gets +185 against Woods).

In Harrington's first seven Masters, he finished better than 13th only once (fifth in 2002). But in the past two, he seems to be figuring Augusta out. In 2007 he tied for seventh (two behind Tiger) and then last year shared fifth (three behind Tiger). But the way, only Bobby Jones, Ben Hogan and Tiger have won three consecutive major championships.

Another bet I like is South African Retief Goosen as the top Rest of the World Player at +595; Goosen is only priced behind Ogilvy, an Aussie. Goosen finished 17th last year but was in the top three in the previous three Masters.

Plus, Goosen's career appears back on track, as he has reworked his swing and got in better shape. It has paid off with seven made cuts in seven events, including a win last month outside Tampa at the Transitions Championship. Goosen also finished third at Pebble Beach in February.

Ogilvy, who has been outstanding on Tour this year, has a best finish of 16th at Augusta in three previous Masters. But you may not want to bet on an Aussie to win at Augusta, as it has never happened (thanks mainly to Greg Norman).

"I think it's a course that I could do OK, and if I play like I have this year, I would hope I would have some sort of chance on Sunday," Ogilvy said.

I would be remiss if I didn't give you a good longshot bet to win this weekend for my 2009 Masters golf predictions, and I think Vijay Singh is just that at +5000. He has finished in the top 15 every year since his victory in 2000, with the exception of 2001 when he tied for 18th. Singh's career scoring average of 72.20 at Augusta is in the top 10 of active players.

The reason he is getting such long odds is because he has struggled a bit this year following knee surgery in January. Upon his return, Singh's best finish in five events has been a tie for 17th in the WGC-Match Play. He also missed the cut last week in Houston, but so did Mickelson in lousy conditions.

Sean O'Hair, who has four Top-10 finishes this season and was the victim of Tiger's winning putt at Bay Hill a few weeks ago, is good value at +1025 to be the top American other than Woods. O'Hair finished 14th last season at Augusta.

Hopefully I've given you a few bets to ponder with my 2009 Masters golf predictions … although no doubt a majority of you will just bet on Tiger anyways.