Nevada (6-6) vs. New Mexico (8-4)

Conference Matchup: WAC vs. Mountain West
Date: Dec. 22, 2007 - 4:30 p.m. EST on ESPN HD
Location: Albuquerque, NM
Spread: New Mexico -3

The Nevada football program is on an upswing as of late. They will be playing in their third straight bowl game (1-1 in their last two) when they travel to Albuquerque to take on the University of New Mexico. It is the first time in Wolf Pack school history that a streak like this one has taken place. The Lobos, riding a seven-year bowl appearance streak actually have a home game, as University Stadium will play host to this year's contest.

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Nevada can cover if they can pile up the yardage and keep the offense moving. On the season, the Wolf Pack have averaged 488.9 yards of total offense per game. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has the fifth best passer rating in the nation, which is impressive since he is in the company of great QBs such as Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Colt Brennan and Graham Harrell. The 6'6" freshman has big game ability, but more importantly he does not turn the ball over. With only three interceptions this season, not many can say they have fewer picks. They will need this type of ball security against the Lobos in a virtual road game.

The defense doesn't have to win the game, but they can't lose it if they are to stay with New Mexico. If they look the way they did against Boise St., giving up 69 points, they don't have a chance. Granted, it was a four overtime game, but they still can't afford to surrender so many points. Since the defense doesn't do a terrific job of forcing turnovers (only averaging about 1.3 per game), or limiting yardage (giving up over 400 yards per game), they need to focus on not giving up the big play. Making the Lobos settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, or even forcing a punt or two, may be enough for the offense to take over the game and make up the difference.

New Mexico can cover if their defense, which only gives up a shade over 20 points per game, can shut down the Wolf Pack attack. Eliminating the ground game will be the key in this one. Nevada averages about 225 yards on the ground, while New Mexico only gives up approximately 126 rushing yards per game. If New Mexico can make Nevada one dimensional and take away the run, it could force Wolf Pack quarterback Colin Kaepernick into some bad decisions.

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Getting their 85th-ranked offense on track against a horrible Nevada defense could be the other way this game could shift towards the Lobos. Junior running back Rodney Ferguson may have to put this one on his shoulders and lead his team to a win. New Mexico is 5-1 this season when Ferguson has over 100 yards rushing in a game and only 3-3 when he doesn't. If the punishing runner can dig for some first downs and keep the offense on the field, it may just limit the number of Wolf Pack possessions enough to secure a victory.

General notes: Nevada is 15-7 in their last 22 ATS. New Mexico is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games, but 13-6 straight up against non-conference opponents at University Stadium. The Lobos are 2-7-1 all time in their 10 bowl appearances. New Mexico's last bowl win came on Dec. 9, 1961 in the Aviation Bowl against Central Michigan. It should be noted that this bowl game was never played again, possibly due to its atrocious name.