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NFL Preseason Betting Tips
by Robert Ferringo - 08/01/2007

I always thought that betting on preseason football was strictly for degenerate gamblers. I mean real scumbags; the kind of guys you don't trust with your wife or your kids. The kind of guy who steals from his mother and doesn't comb the food out of his stained mustache. The ragged, the beaten and the depraved were the only ones with the will - only with these poor lost souls it was less will and more glorious obliviousness - to handle a wager that came down to a fourth-and-long with a third-string quarterback just days away from going back to his job as a tax assessor trying to toss a perfect fade to a fourth-string wide receiver destined to be driving a delivery truck the following week. It was a gruesome and reckless way to make a buck, I thought, and the idea sent a shiver down my spine.

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In the matter of full disclosure, certain parts of my soul still feel that way about NFL preseason football betting. But ever since I chose to make my career as a professional sports handicapper, a tempter of fate and wizard of mathematics, I've softened my stance on the Bet That Dare Not Speak Its Name. I've come to respect the accessibility of NFL preseason betting and have learned that the money that's paid out for winning wagers on these games has the same color and value as the money that's won during the regular season.

So I'm here today to give you some tips, tricks, indicators, and strategies for betting the NFL Exhibition Season. Again, preseason football wagering is a bit different than how you would approach a regular season bet. But in a lot of ways it's still the same. I mean, they aren't playing jai alai at the two-minute warning or anything. It's football: may the most violent and unrelenting man win.

But we'll save that gibberish for the games that "Really Matter". Instead, here are some NFL Preseason betting tips to key on when you consider placing a wager:

1) Depth

This one is obvious. Squares get so worked up about the starters and skill position players on certain teams during the regular season. But they're the same in the preseason. Teams that can go two- and three-deep at the skill positions have a decided advantage over a club that has a few stars that will be sitting after the first series. A perfect example of that is a team like the Chicago Bears, who have an outstanding No. 2 quarterback in Brian Griese and have a large advantage over a club like Cincinnati, which has a steep drop off from Carson Palmer to Doug Johnson.

Quarterbacks are key. Preseason wagers, just like those during the Real Season, often come down to the last eight minutes of a game. So find teams that have a No. 3 or No. 4 quarterback that has some experience or success in the league. They'll have a tremendous advantage in the closing moments of a game against a third- or fourth-string defense.

2) Experience

I don't necessarily mean which team has the most grizzled veterans on it. In fact, in that category experience can be a detriment. Vets hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys mail it in during the preseason because they know the games are "meaningless".

However, experience is a key factor when it comes to coaching systems. Organizations that haven't experienced much turnaround have a significant advantage over those that are easing in a new brain trust. For example, Philadelphia has been running Andy Reid's system for years. They're going to be much sharper than their Keystone counterparts, the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are breaking in a new coach, a new offensive coordinator, seven new assistant coaches, and potentially a new defense. Keying on clubs that have familiarity and continuity, and finding clubs that are much less comfortable with their new systems, is a big key for betting on the preseason.

3) Motivation

Each coach handles the preseason differently. Some put a premium on the second game. For some it's the third. Some coaches just dick around and tinker with their lineups during the Fake Games. But here's the key - and this is a big difference between the regular season and preseason football - most coaches are forthright about what the game plan is. Many honchos make it know in the media before the game what their goals and game plans are. This is what I mean about the "accessibility" of preseason info and why that makes it a solid bet.

Further, key position battles can influence the amount of emotion or intensity that a team brings to the field in its exhibition games. Pay close attention to quarterback (Tampa Bay), running back (Minnesota) and linebacker (Houston) competitions.

4) Scheduling

The preseason schedule generally isn't too taxing on the teams and players. But there are quirks. For instance, New Orleans opens the exhibition season with the Hall of Fame Game on Aug. 5. They then come back five days later to host Buffalo on Aug. 10. If some people are a bit banged up then you can expect the Saints to nurse the wounded in that second game. Chicago actually plays three preseason games in 10 days, starting with a Monday night dance with Indianapolis on Aug. 20 and ending with their final tune up against Cleveland on Aug. 30. There's a game against San Fran sandwiched in between, and since Chicago returns 20 of 22 starters you would expect them to have it on cruise control in that 49ers contest.

Also, one favorite angle for bettors is based on the belief that a team that's entering its second exhibition game against a team playing its first has a tremendous edge because they've gotten a lot of the rust and jitters out. I have no empirical data to refute or confirm that suspicion, but I do agree that it's a solid premise.

If you enjoy reading this article you'll like our NFL Season Win Totals page. If you plan on betting NFL you'll also want to read our NFL Strength of Schedule page. Our Suicide Pools page is also a valuable tool for your NFL research. For 35+ years the team at Doc's Sports Service has provided and insight on NFL handicapping.

5) Trends

Hey, you could just kick back and let history do the work for you. Here are some decent numbers that - while I can't fully explain - do appear to have something underlying to them. Kind of like Stonehenge.

(All records are against the spread)

- New England has covered five straight exhibition openers. Buffalo and Tampa Bay are close behind at 4-0 ATS recently. Conversely, Green Bay and San Diego are 1-5 ATS in their first preseason game.

- Dallas and Green Bay are 0-6 against the total in their first preseason game, and the Ravens are 1-7.

- If you were to parlay the 'under' with a bet against Kansas City in Week 2 of the preseason - that means bet on the Chiefs' opponent and the 'under' in that game - you would have won that wager four of the past five seasons.

- Denver is 7-0 in Week 4 of the preseason. Minnesota is 6-1. New Orleans and St. Louis are a combined 2-11.

- When posted as a favorite, Atlanta is 21-13-1 and New England is 20-9 since 1990. Indy is 21-9 as a dog, and the Rams are 13-24 as a puppy.

- Green Bay is 1-11 against a team off back-to-back losses. Seattle is 11-2 as an underdog off a straight-up loss.

Don't ask me where I got these numbers or how I know this stuff. I'm just a god damn degenerate.

Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at robert@docsports.com or check out his Insider Page here.