I always thought that betting on preseason football was strictly for degenerate gamblers. I mean real scumbags; the kind of guys you don't trust with your wife or your kids. The kind of guy who steals from his mother and doesn't comb the food out of his stained mustache. The ragged, the beaten and the depraved were the only ones with the will - only with these poor lost souls it was less will and more glorious obliviousness - to handle a wager that came down to a fourth-and-long with a third-string quarterback just days away from going back to his job as a tax assessor trying to toss a perfect fade to a fourth-string wide receiver destined to be driving a delivery truck the following week. It was a gruesome and reckless way to make a buck, I thought, and the idea sent a shiver down my spine.

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In the matter of full disclosure, certain parts of my soul still feel that way about NFL preseason football betting. But ever since I chose to make my career as a professional sports handicapper, a tempter of fate and wizard of mathematics, I've softened my stance on the Bet That Dare Not Speak Its Name. I've come to respect the accessibility of NFL preseason betting and have learned that the money that's paid out for winning wagers on these games has the same color and value as the money that's won during the regular season.
So I'm here today to give you some tips, tricks, indicators, and strategies for betting the NFL Exhibition Season. Again, preseason football wagering is a bit different than how you would approach a regular season bet. But in a lot of ways it's still the same. I mean, they aren't playing jai alai at the two-minute warning or anything. It's football: may the most violent and unrelenting man win.
But we'll save that gibberish for the games that "Really Matter". Instead, here are some NFL Preseason betting tips to key on when you consider placing a wager:

1. Cap the fourth quarter, not the first.
The media likes to focus on which key players and starters are playing, and how long they are playing, in the game’s opening quarter. But just like regular season games, preseason NFL games are won in the fourth quarter. And in those instances it helps to have your cash on teams with the most depth.

What I like to look for in the exhibition season is teams with more veterans than rookies that will be playing in the second half. Even if the veterans aren’t very good or are struggling to make the team I prefer that over a club that is trying to scout out rookies and players that will be filling out their practice squad. When people talk about the “two-deep” they are usually discussing college football depth charts. But the NFL two-deeps are key to handicapping NFL preseason games.

2. Quarterbacks are killers.
This builds on our first key. Quarterback depth is crucial to preseason success. Where in the regular season you put the emphasis on the starters, in the exhibition season you need to break down the matchup of the No. 3 and No. 4 quarterbacks for each team and simply put your money on which you think is better. Again, experience is crucial here.

For example, Tampa Bay has gone 3-1 against the spread in each of the last two preseasons and they are 10-5-1 ATS over the last four years. The main reason for that was Jon Gruden’s obsession with quarterbacks. He routinely kept three or four veterans with starting experience on the roster battling for spots. As a result, you could end up with a guy like Brian Griese out there leading Tampa’s fourth quarter offense against the opponent’s hopeless, fourth string, sixth round pick (think Caleb Hannie or Ingle Martin). That’s a tremendous advantage.

Teams with quarterback controversy are always worth an extra look. The coaches are going to give each QB some extra snaps and both arms are going to be a little sharper and a little more focused. Also, backups that have been in the same system for a long time (Jim Sorgi comes to mind) are also solid guys to have your money on.

3. Money for food and the mortgage are great motivators.
Again, this builds off the previous idea. Teams that are solid and stable with their starters are much less interesting in the preseason than clubs with a lot of openings that they’re trying to fill. Competition brings out the best in teams during the preseason because players are fighting for their jobs and their livelihoods, just like me!

Last year I had a feeling that Atlanta and Miami were going to be vastly improved just from watching them in the preseason. These teams were flying around the ball, fired up on the sidelines, and hitting people all over the field. People were fighting for jobs and these players were motivated to come out and make a statement.

Detroit only has 13 returning starters and Tampa Bay only has 15 this year. I’d keep an eye on both clubs. They both have new coaches, competitive quarterback jobs, and a lot of journeymen veterans fighting for open spots and fresh paychecks.

4. Coaches have to have something to get up for.
Speaking of motivation, it all starts with the coaches. These are the guys that set the tempo for the teams and these are the men that make decisions in preseason (and regular season) games that determine if you are going to cash or not. You gotta know the coaches before you even think about moving on a game.

Guys like Mike Shanahan (41-18) were always money in the preseason. Guys like Andy Reid (15-25) look at the exhibition schedule as a chore. You have to pay attention to historical trends when considering the head men and use that as one of the first things that you pay attention to.

On top of that, there are other motivational indicators to peruse. For instance, new coaches have historically been solid wagers in their opening games. For these coaches – especially rookie coaches – these games are approached as if they were a playoff game because the new coach wants to make a good impression and get off on the right foot. I mentioned how impressed I was last year watching Miami and Atlanta in the preseason. Those were new coaches taking over terrible teams and they were motivated to get things going in the right direction. The result: a combined 6-2 ATS mark last August.

Further, be wary of teams that are implementing wholesale changes on offense or defense. New systems and new coordinators lead to sloppy play early on the preseason as everyone tries to get their bearings. For example, as Green Bay’s defense shifts from a long-time 4-3 base to Dom Capers’ 3-4 I am expecting some growing pains.

5. Don’t forget to check the itinerary.
Just like in the regular season, it’s not always simply who you play as much as it is when you play them. There are all kinds of scheduling quirks in the preseason – three or four days between games, etc. – that you don’t have to handicap in the regular season and you have to be mindful of them.

Perfect example: last year the Cowboys were training in Southern California. They opened up the preseason with a game at San Diego. No problem there. After that contest, a 31-17 loss, they broke camp. But they didn’t head back to Dallas. Instead they moved on to Denver, their opponent the following week, and practiced with the Broncos that week while staying in hotels. They came out flat and lost, 23-13.

Further, keep an eye on how many teams have long layoffs and quick turnarounds. The Jets play on Aug. 14 and then have until Aug. 24 to prepare for what should be a moderately emotional game with Baltimore, as new Jets coach Rex Ryan faces his old team. That is a Monday night game, and then the Jets turn back around and play a rivalry game with the Giants that Saturday.

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