South Carolina (7-5) vs. Iowa (8-4)
Conference matchup: SEC vs. Big Ten
When: Jan. 1, 11 a.m. (ESPN)
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
Spread: Iowa -3.5, total at 44

Line movement: At most books, this opened at three and has risen a half-point. The over/under opened at 43 at a majority of sites.

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Bowl history: The Hawkeyes have dropped their past two postseason games, falling in the 2006 Alamo Bowl to Texas and 2006 Outback Bowl (2005 season) to Florida. Iowa is 11-10-1 all-time in bowls and 1-1 in the Outback. The Gamecocks are 4-9 in bowls, but 2-0 in the Outback, winning on New Year’s Day in 2001 and 2002. Neither of these teams made a bowl last season.

How they got here: Iowa’s postseason hopes weren’t looking great when the Hawkeyes were 3-3, and rumors of coach Kirk Ferentz’s demise were growing. But Iowa won five of its past six games, with the signature win being that home upset of Penn State that knocked the Nittany Lions from the BCS title game and vaulted the Hawkeyes into a New Year’s Day bowl. South Carolina enters on a downward spiral, having been outscored 87-20 by Florida and Clemson in its past two games. Coach Steve Spurrier has been playing musical quarterbacks all season, to little success.

Key trends: The Hawkeyes are 12-4 ATS in their past 16 vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 10-1 in Iowa’s past 11 non-conference games. South Carolina is 2-6-1 ATS in its past nine as an underdog. The under is 5-1 in the Gamecocks’ past six non-conference games.

So who starts at QB for Gamecocks: That would be freshman Stephen Garcia, who is a native of Tampa and played his high school ball a mile or so from Raymond James Stadium.

Chris Smelley started the season finale against Clemson and played the entire way after rotating with Garcia against Arkansas and Florida. Smelley threw four picks against the Tigers, leading Spurrier to demote him to backup and saying Garcia will play the entire way in the bowl game barring injury.

“It’s definitely going to help me a lot not to have to look over my shoulder and not worry about being taken out if I make a mistake. I think it’s definitely going to be helpful,” said Garcia, who has completed 53.8 percent of his passes for 753 yards and six touchdowns, with five interceptions. He has run for 173 yards and two scores.

Iowa’s defense ranks No. 12 in the country and allowed nine points or less five times this season.

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Iowa’s one-man show: Junior running back Shonn Greene, the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, has topped 100 yards rushing in 12 consecutive games (the only Division I-A player to surpass 100 yards in every game), finishing the regular season with 1,729 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Spurrier called the Doak Walker Award winner “the best running back in the country.” Greene, who finished sixth in the Heisman voting, will be tested by a Gamecocks defense that ranks 11th in the country but did struggle down the stretch. It ranks No. 3 against the pass, so Iowa might just abandon that part of its offense most of the day.

Overview: Iowa is about two touchdowns from being unbeaten: its four losses came by a total of 12 points. South Carolina can’t run the ball, and Garcia has been inconsistent. In addition, the Gamecocks have lost two coaches (including QBs coach David Reaves) since the season ended. The Hawkeyes are playing their best ball and put up 55 points in the regular-season finale against a solid Minnesota team. They ruin Garcia’s homecoming in a low-scoring game.