Wisconsin (9-3) vs. Tennessee (9-4)

Conference Matchup: Big Ten vs. SEC
Date: Jan. 1, 2008
Location: Tampa, Florida
Spread: Tennessee -3.5.

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It's almost déjà vu. Last year the Tennessee Volunteers rolled down to Tampa as confident three-point favorites over another plodding Big Ten team, unranked Penn State. They rolled out with their tails between their legs and a disappointing 20-10 loss.

I remember that game vividly as one of my biggest losses of the season. The key play was, tied 10-10 in the fourth quarter, Adrian Foster fumbled at the Penn State 12-yard-line and watched Tony Davis return it for the game-winning score. That play made my New Year's Eve hangover much, much worse.

But now the Vols have a shot at redemption against what has to be considered one of the biggest underachievers of the college football season. Sure, Wisconsin enters that game ranked 18th in the nation. But for a team that returned 16 starters and most of its skill players from last year's 11-1 club, this year had to have been a bit of a let down. The Badgers finished fourth in the Big Ten and lost their three key road games - at Ohio State, at Penn State and at Illinois - by an average of 19 points. They went just 4-7-1 against the spread this year and were a putrid 0-5 ATS away from home.

Road struggles this season weren't limited to Wisconsin. Tennessee won just two of its six road games this year, posting a 2-3-1 mark against the number. Cal and Florida destroyed the visiting Vols this season, and Tennessee also blew a lead against LSU in the SEC Championship Game on a neutral site, the Georgia Dome.

Both Wisconsin and Tennessee fans travel very well, so establishing a "home feel" advantage could prove to be a key in this one.

Another interesting subplot concerns long-time Tennessee assistant coach and current offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe. Cutcliffe was recently hired as the new head coach at Duke but will coach in the bowl game against Wisconsin. However, while Cutcliffe is trying to build a coaching staff - no doubt recruiting some of his buddies from UT - he is also trying to prepare for the Badgers. There can't be nearly enough hours in the day and you have to wonder where is focus will be.

Tennessee can cover if: If the focused, motivated team that railroaded Georgia between the hedges this year shows up then they could run circles around Wisconsin. If Erik Ainge is sharp then the Vols can get up early, force Tyler Donovan to try to beat them with his arm, and turn it into a blowout.

Phil Fulmer has been battling veiled criticism all season and knows that his only shot at silencing the doubters - at least for a few months - is with a convincing bowl victory over a name program. Fulmer is just 2-5 straight up in his last seven bowl games, but the last two times that he lost in the SEC Title Game (2001 and 2004) he rebounded with solid road wins.

Wisconsin can cover if: If P.J. Hill is healthy and ready to rumble than the Badgers can mimic the game plan that Penn State used so effectively last year. The Vols surrender 162 yards per game on the ground and were actually outgained by their opposition this season. If the Badgers control both lines of scrimmage they could keep Ainge off the field and keep this one low scoring.

As I mentioned, Fulmer has been terrible in bowl games recently and he's a tough guy to trust your money to. Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema topped another SEC team, Arkansas, last year in the Capital One Bowl as a three-point dog and could make it back-to-back postseason wins to start his career.

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General Notes: Tennessee wide receivers coach Trooper Taylor was offered the Baylor OC position. Bielema said that Hill will play but won't start against Tennessee. He also said that freshman guard John Moffitt would remain the starter for the Outback Bowl.

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