Southern Miss (7-5) vs. Cincinnati (9-3)

Conference Matchup: Conference USA vs. Big East

Dec. 22, 2007 - 1 p.m. EST on ESPN2 HD
Location: Birmingham, AL
Spread: Cincinnati -11

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Southern Miss can cover if they can figure out how to slow down the 23rd-ranked passing attack that Cincinnati will bring at them, which averages 282.2 yards per game. Senior defensive back Brandon Sumrall is tied for 23rd in the country with five interceptions per game, and he will need to make Cincinnati QB Ben Mauk pay for a mistake. Cincinnati is ranked No. 14 in scoring, averaging 36.8 points per game. When the Bearcats score more than 30, they are 7-0 and only 2-3 when they don't. If the Golden Eagles can keep Cincinnati's offense off of the field and thus out of the endzone, they will have a chance. Southern Miss can do that through the running game, as they average over 200 yards on the ground. But this will be difficult since Cincinnati's defense only gives up about 105 rushing yards per game. If Southern Miss can manage to hold the ball, chew the clock and gain yards, they could find themselves victorious. And if none of this works? Call Pat White and Steve Slaton at halftime and tell them to suit up. The West Virginia tandem racked up over 250 yards on the ground by themselves in their win over Cincinnati.

Cincinnati can cover if QB Ben Mauk continues his solid play. The 6'1" senior is being held together by screws, metal plates and other pieces of renovated Nippert Stadium after he broke the humerus in his throwing arm last season. In spite of the setback, he has had a good year, with a 61.4 completion percentage and a touchdown to interception ratio of 27-to-6. Mauk will need his offense to be explosive, and put points on the board early. In their seven wins, the Golden Eagles are giving up an average of only 16 points as compared to 34.2 in their five losses. Cincinnati also needs to continue their success on defense in terms of forcing turnovers. As one of the nation's best in that department, the Bearcats will have to take a couple away to put this game far enough out of reach. Lastly, this Southern Miss team is similar to a Connecticut team that they faced earlier this season. Both like to run the ball and average almost identical yards per game through the air. Cincinnati made a balanced UConn team look bad, stopping the run and picking off a pass, as the Huskies were held to only 22 yards on the ground. That is the same formula they need here. The longer Southern Miss holds on to the football and is able to run against this defense, the more this game will turn towards the Golden Eagles.

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General notes: Their last meeting was in November of 2004, where Cincinnati destroyed Southern Miss, 52-24. The Bearcats are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games, as they placed third in the Big East and finished with a 4-3 conference record. Southern Miss finished fourth in Conference USA's East Division, which is a much weaker conference than the Big East. Cincinnati's strength of schedule is 49th in the country while Southern Miss' is 101st. Birmingham is only about a three and a half hour drive from Hattiesburg, Mississippi, while Cincinnati is almost 500 miles away. In a close game, the crowd could favor the underdog Golden Eagles. Lastly, Southern Miss' head coach Jeff Bower will coach his last game for the Golden Eagles, as he recently resigned. This may be an emotional day for Bower, having been on the sidelines in Hattiesburg for 17 years as head coach. What's more is that some say he wanted to remain, but was forced out. This news could motivate his players to play an inspired game, but a potent Cincinnati offense could have other ideas.