Utah (8-4) vs. Navy (8-4)

Conference Matchup: Mountain West vs. Independent
Date: Dec. 20
Location: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, Calif.
Spread: Utah -9

The Poinsettia Bowl kicks off the bowl season in San Diego featuring a pair of 8-4 teams. Traditional Mountain West power Utah has won seven of its last eight, while independent Navy has had an up-and-down season in which it lost to Delaware, almost lost to Duke, but ended a decades-long drought against Notre Dame. The Midshipmen also just lost their coach; Paul Johnson selected Georgia Tech over suitors that included Duke and SMU. Johnson, who went 45-29 at Navy in six seasons, will be replaced by assistant Ken Niumatalolo. It will be interesting to see if Johnson's departure will have any effect on the Midshipmen. If the players respect and rally around Niumatalolo, who was athletic director Chet Gladchuk's hand-picked successor to Johnson, then motivation shouldn't be a problem.

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Utah can cover if: If the Utes can get an early lead behind their spread offense, Navy could be in trouble. Using the same system that memorably led to an undefeated season and BCS appearance a few years back under Urban Meyer, the Utes are capable of posting some big offensive numbers. A big two-score lead will force Navy out of its triple option and into the passing game, which the Midshipmen would rather not do; they have 1,082 yards total passing this year. When he's healthy, Brian Johnson is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country. In somewhat limited action, he has completed 65 percent of his passes, thrown for 1,621 yards and 10 touchdowns; backup Tommy Grady has thrown for 681 yards and four scores. The Utes average 35 points per game in their wins, which could spell trouble for Navy, which has yielded 45 points per game in its losses. Teams with similar balanced attacks such as Rutgers and Wake Forest each blew out Navy without much problem. Utah's defense has been mostly solid; its 320 yards per game average is 16th in the nation.

Navy can cover if: the Midshipmen can eat up a bunch of clock with time-consuming drives and finish them with touchdowns. The best way to stop a potent offense is to keep it off the field. Navy's offense, which leads the country in rushing, features seven players who have rushed for more than 400 yards and have at least five touchdowns. Quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada leads the way with 782 yards and 11 touchdowns, followed by Eric Kettani (755/nine TDs) and Adam Ballard (644 yards/five TDs). On the rare occasion Navy throws the ball, Reggie Campbell (213 yards, four TDs) is the primary target. Campbell also has returned two kickoffs for touchdowns this season. However, the key to the Midshipmen making a game of it relies on its leaky defense, which gives up a woeful 420 yards per game and is ranked 100th nationally. They must get some stops against Utah's powerful attack or it could be a long day.

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General Notes: Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is familiar with bowl games in San Diego, having played in the first four Holiday Bowls with BYU. Niumatalolo, Navy's new coach, was born and raised in Hawaii although he is of Samoan descent. HE is believed to be the first Polynesian head coach in NCAA history. Navy's 74-62 win over North Texas on Nov. 10 is the highest-scoring game in major college history. Although it's officially a neutral site, Navy should enjoy a bit of a partisan-crowd advantage because Qualcomm Stadium is located in San Diego, a noted Navy town.