Oregon (8-4) vs. South Florida (9-3)

Conference Matchup: Big East vs. ACC
Date: Dec. 31
Location: El Paso, Texas
Spread: South Florida -6.5

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This game features two teams that were BCS national title hopefuls in the early part of the season, each rising to the No. 2 ranking only to see those dreams dashed by disastrous finishes. The origin of Oregon's tumble was easy to pinpoint; losing Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback Dennis Dixon for the rest of the season against upset-minded Arizona resulted in the Ducks losing that game, then two more to finish 8-4 as Dixon's backups could not muster any sort of offense in their star's absence. South Florida went from surprise contender to what probably what most considered the Bulls in the pre-season, a middle-of-the-pack Big East team. They seemed to benefit from a somewhat light early schedule - with the exception of a win over West Virginia - and their rise to No. 2 seemed to do with everyone else falling by the wayside as much as anything South Florida did to deserve it. The Bulls proceeded to lose three straight, at Rutgers and Connecticut and at home to Cincinnati, before rebounding to win three straight to finish the season. Despite their disappointing mid-season stretch, South Florida is a well-coached and solid team, perhaps on the cusp of BCS-caliber. Quarterback Matt Grothe was considered a dark horse Heisman candidate during South Florida's early run, and he is a hard-nosed and talented leader who runs a multiple-threat offense with efficiency. But the way both of these teams faltered after great starts, this feels like the "What Might Have Been" Bowl.

Oregon can cover if: the Ducks can find any semblance of offense to keep the score close. It isn't clear whether Dixon's injury proved how much he meant to his team or how inept his backups are. Perhaps it's a combination of both. Either way, they have struggled mightily in Dixon's absence. The Brady Leaf experiment was an unqualified disaster; in two games with him at the helm, the Ducks scored exactly zero points. Third-stringer Justin Roper stepped in for the Civil War game against Oregon State and fared much better, throwing for 162 yards and two touchdowns in the 38-31 overtime loss. The Ducks need to be able to pass just enough so that the Bulls have to respect it and can't stack the box up front to stuff Oregon's run game. Dixon's loss cost Oregon 2,136 yards passing, 583 rushing yards and 29 combined touchdowns. However, the Ducks still should have enough weapons to stay competitive. Running back Jonathan Stewart has 1,469 yards and 10 touchdowns and receiver Jaison Williams has 804 yards and seven touchdowns. But South Florida has the nation's 19th-ranked run defense, so the Ducks must show enough balance on offense to keep the Bulls honest.

South Florida can cover if: the Bulls don't take short-handed Oregon for granted and expect that they can just go through the motions and win. That shouldn't be a problem, though, given coach Jim Leavitt's attitude of humility and his response to being invited to this bowl that made it sounds as if the Bulls were headed to the Fiesta Bowl. "For them to invite the University of South Florida is an absolute honor," Leavitt said after learning where his team was headed. "I wish so much that we could again let them know how much we appreciate it, and we will, when we get out there." Those don't sound like the words of a coach who is willing to let his team come into the game with a lack of focus. If that's the case, then South Florida, especially given Dixon's absence, should be the superior team. Along with a solid defense, Grothe gave opposing defenders fits by throwing for 2,473 yards and 13 touchdowns, while also leading the team in rushing with 832 yards and 10 more scores. Mike Ford also ran for 637 yards and 12 touchdowns.

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General Notes: The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games, but just 1-4 ATS against teams with winning records. The Ducks are 4-1 in their last five bowl games as an underdog.