Houston (8-4) vs. TCU (7-5)

Conference matchup: Conference USA vs Mountain West
Date: Dec. 28, 2007
Location: Reliant Stadium, Houston, Texas
Spread: TCU -3.5

The Texas Bowl doesn't exactly have a long history. Rutgers beat Kansas State in the first edition last year. This bowl replaced the Houston Bowl, which ran from 2000 to 2005, though no one really misses that event. The Texas Bowl is now broadcast on the NFL Network after that network bought naming and broadcast rights last year. The bowl was supposed to be a matchup between the Big 12 and Conference USA, but TCU took the place of a Big 12 team after both Kansas and Oklahoma made the BCS, meaning the Big 12 didn't have enough bowl eligible teams. These two Texas rivals last met in 2004, when TCU won by a touchdown and covered the 6.5-point spread. The Horned Frogs have won each of their last seven meetings stretching back to 1993.

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Houston can cover if: they can overcome distractions to focus on the game. Coach Art Briles has left the program to take over at Baylor, so Chris Thurmond, who was recruiting coordinator and coached the cornerbacks, is slated to be at the helm for this bowl. There is talk that legendary coach Jack Pardee could come back to take over the program, with former star QB David Klingler as his offensive coordinator. The whole situation could certainly take the focus of the players off the game. That's certainly a concern for a team that showed that they could badly lose focus at times this year. Against Tulsa, for example, the game was a pick 'em, but only a late Houston touchdown stopped it from being a humiliating 56-0 shutout. The Cougars won the games on both sides of that blowout, so it was more of a periodic problem than and overall weakness. If their mind is on the field then will be able to score. They had the fourth most yards per game in the country, and were remarkably balanced between the run and the pass.

TCU can cover if: they pay like they were expected to all year. Few teams were as big a disappointment this season as the Horned Frogs. It seems almost impossible to believe, they were a very trendy pick to upset Texas in Week 2. They lost that game 34-13 while barely putting up an effort, and have struggled since. They dropped a game the next week to Air Force, and should have won at least two of the other three they lost. This team fell hard from being a potential Cinderella BCS-busting team early in the year to ending up in a Texas Bowl game that few will watch now. The defense wasn't outstanding all year, but it was fairly competent and acceptable. They will be challenged by the explosive Houston offense, and will have to be at their best to win here. They certainly have the ability to shut teams down when they want to, but they haven't done that, or anything else, with any consistency.

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General notes: Neither team in this game was profitable against the spread on the season, so there is no clear choice based on past betting performance. Houston has never really settled on a quarterback to replace Kevin Kolb, who is now with the Philadelphia Eagles. Case Keenum and Blake Joseph have each had significant playing time, but neither has been able to seize the position as their own. That's not an immediate concern because the system got them this far, but it's not the ideal situation when they are heading into a bowl as an underdog.