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Article Archives 2













Daytona 500 Odds and Analysis
by Robert Ferringo - 02/12/2008

Up-to-the-minute updated Daytona 500 odds from Bodog are located at the bottom of this article.

Machine mastery, automobile artistry, and death-defying daring - these are the calling cards of The Great American Race.

The 50th running of the Daytona 500 will take place at 3:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 17 at the Daytona International Speedway. This event, known as The Great American Race, is the signature event of NASCAR and is the stage of some of the most memorable moments in the sport. There are currently several online sportsbooks offering 2008 Daytona 500 odds, including our friends over at Bodog.

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Finding a winner while betting on NASCAR, or any type of auto racing, is not much different than trying to find a winner in a horseracing field. But instead of being able to nail an exacta or a trifecta with a wheel you're limited to trying to figure out who has the best single chance to pay off with his fancy handling of the wheel. Think of a wager on the Daytona 500 as a futures bet - only the future becomes the present pretty damn quick. As in 188 miles-per-hour quick.

There are certain indicators that can help you find a value play. First, you want to find a driver with a racecar capable of holding up, paying particular attention to the make. Chevy has put a driver in Victory Lane in 15 of 19 races, and Toyota is this year's sleeper manufacturer. Next, you want to find someone who performed well in the Bud Shootout and qualifying. Third, look for someone who's had some success at Daytona in the past. That doesn't just mean wins. Top 10 finishes are good, as is tabbing someone who consistently finishes higher than where he starts. Finally, you have to weight the odds and determine if the factors justify backing a driver who is one of a crowded 43-car field on the Super Sunday of Racing.

Trying to break down Daytona 500 betting and Daytona 500 odds without knowing where the drivers are starting is a bit like trying to predict who's going to win the NCAA Tournament before knowing the seeds. But we're going to give it a shot anyway. In the only Daytona I formally capped - the 2006 race - I managed to tab the winner in my sleepers section. Let's see if we can go 2-for-2:

CHECKERED FLAG (The favorites.)

*Jeff Gordon (9-to-2) - The Golden Boy is a three-time Daytona winner and should be one of the guys battling for the title in the final 10 laps. He is the member of a stacked team and if he is in the lead late in the race he's going to have plenty of help sealing the deal. The odds aren't fantastic, but he's someone to consider because of his past success.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (7-to-2) - Junior was exceptional at restrictor plate racing with DEI. We'll see if it carries over to his time with Hendricks, but if the Budweiser Shootout was any indication I think he's going to be just fine. That being said, this is a trap. These odds aren't even close to being a good value. In the 29 years since there's been a pre-500 race at Daytona - from the Busch Class to the Bud Shootout - there have been only four times that the same driver that won the pre-500 race also won the Daytona 500. It's happened just once in the last 10 years.

Jimmie Johnson (9-to-2) - Johnson seems like a sure thing and is a strong candidate to take the checkered flag. He's won here before and always seems to be hanging around the Top 5. On top of that he took the pole last weekend. But that might be why he's not a great bet: only twice in the last 13 years has the pole sitter held on to win the race.

*Tony Stewart (7-to-1) - Last year Stewart and Kurt Busch crashed one another as part of their growing feud. Now this year we have Stewart allegedly punching Busch out. All this tells me two things: 1) his head isn't 100 percent in the game, and 2) if Busch gets a chance to sabotage Tough Tony he'll take it. Stewart may be due at this track and ran great last weekend, but I'm not sure if this is his time. However, one of my insiders assures me he'll be in the mix.

YELLOW FLAG (The shaky second tier.)

Kyle Busch (9-to-1) - Busch can handle the track. Over the past three years he's started the race eighth, fourth, and 19th. But he can't handle the traffic. Over that same span he's finished 24th, 23rd, and 38th. Not a strong track record, and thus not worth these odds.

Martin Truex Jr. (15-to-1) - Truex is in essentially the same spot as Kyle Busch. He manages to qualify in positions where you think he could be a factor but then he finishes 10 or more spots lower than he started. Truex crashed last weekend and turned in the 40th fastest lap in qualifying. This is probably dead money.

Matt Kenseth (10-to-1) - Roush Racing's golden boy is breaking in a new crew chief and that lack of chemistry is a huge liability heading into the biggest race of the season. And just like his other second-tier boys he's finished lower than he's started the last three 500s. His odds should be closer to 25-to-1. Oh, and he's in a Ford as well. No thanks.

GREEN FLAG (Some sleepers and some decent long shots.)

*Dave Blaney (25-to-1) - Another of the Toyota drivers that could make an impact at a sweet price. Blaney was fifth in qualifying and seventh in the Shootout. He's been low impact over the past two 500s but finished 14th after starting 38th back in 2005. He's a long shot, but one worth a look.

*Michael Waltrip (20-to-1) - On the Bodog board Waltrip falls under the category of "The Field". I'll take it in a heartbeat. He's starting the race in the No. 2 position and has the extra motivation of wanting to vindicate himself. It was here just one year ago that Waltrip was accused of cheating after an illegal fuel additive was found in his car. Waltrip has a pair of Daytona titles on his wall and is behind the wheel of what seems to be a much-improved Toyota automobile.

*Casey Mears (15-to-1) - Mears finished in second place here in 2006, ran well in the Bud Shootout while finishing sixth, and posted the sixth-fastest lap during qualifying. Oh, and he drives a Chevy. These seem like tasty odds for a guy who seems to linger on the track.

*Mark Martin (15-to-1) - It's not that I don't like the driver, it's that I don't like the odds. Martin should be at least 20-to-1 to make for a must play. He always runs well on this track, finishing second, 10th, and sixth in the last three years. He rides a Chevy and was eighth last weekend. However, he turned in just the 18th fastest lap during qualifying.

BLACK FLAG (Low-percentage wagers and sucker bets.)

Jamie McMurray (20-to-1) - If you're looking for a long shot, keep looking past this driver. First, he drives a Ford. Second, he hasn't even finished on the lead lap in his last three 500s. Third, he got in another accident at the Shootout. And fourth, he put up the 25th fastest lap during qualifying. His odds should be doubled.

Kevin Harvick (12-to-1) - The defending champion is a sucker bet. Only three times in the history of the Daytona 500 has a driver won back-to-back titles. All three were all-time greats: Richard Petty (1973-74), Cale Yarborough (1983-84), and Sterling Marlin (1994-95). I don't think Harvick has it in him.

Denny Hamlin (12-to-1) - You think this might be the spot for the third-year driver to turn the corner and be a factor. He's had some decent spurts in Florida and was in the Top 10 in both qualifying and the Shootout. But I think the kid still has a lot to learn and can't be taken seriously at such short odds.

Kurt Busch (10-to-1) - The Human Punching Bag is a solid roller. But I don't think he's a threat. He's in the same spot as Stewart: if Busch is making a move late in the game and Tony or one of his boys have a chance to take a swipe they're going to do it. Plus, Busch is in a Dodge (one winner in 30+ years) and bagged the No. 34 lap during qualifying.

* Recommended plays - that is, if you're into this sort of craziness.

For more information on Robert's member picks and for daily free picks and updates, click here.