A great pitching series opens up at Petco Park May 13. The Marlins continue to win games based on their starting pitchers and I have to wonder if that will catch up with them later in the season. This team is treading water in the bullpen with Todd Jones as their closer. The Padres are starting to get it together after a slow start to the season. This team enters this series at 19-16 and has one of the best bullpens in the National League.

The D-Train, Dontrelle Williams pitched an outstanding game on Wednesday night going eight innings and allowing only one earned run. He will not work in this series and because of that I feel that the Padres have a major edge because of the match-ups in starting pitchers. San Diego will send Adam Eaton, Jake Peavy, and Brain Lawrence to the hill during this three game set. Florida counters with a solid group of its own in Josh Beckett, Al Leiter, and A.J. Burnett. The lines for two of the three games should come in near even with the Saturday night contest being the exception. Peavy should start that game around a -140 favorite over Al Leiter.

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I anticipate playing the Padres in all three games. They will be able to produce a profit by winning at least two out of three games in this series. The Padres are starting to get familiar with their ballpark and have filled their line-up with numerous slap hitters like Mark Loretta, Sean Burroughs, and Dave Roberts. This is the way to win at Petco Park and with Ryan Klesko driving in these players the Padres now appear to be a challenger for the National League West title.

The bullpens in this game are no contest with a serious edge to the Padres. Trevor Hoffman has found his form from years past and after an opening day blowout at Coors Field he has been rock solid finishing games. He has a 7/1 strikeouts to walks ratio and he does not beat himself. Once he enters the game, the money will already by in our pocket.

I will play the Padres in all three games of this set. The home team will get the job done and produce a profit. Florida is coming off a cross-country flight and will not be adjusted to the time zone until they leave town and head north. Play San Diego and take full advantage of some favorable numbers.