UCLA (6-6) vs. BYU (10-2)

Conference Matchup: PAC-10 vs. Mountain West
Date: Dec. 22, 2007 - 8 p.m. EST on ESPN HD
Location: Las Vegas
Spread: BYU -5.5

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BYU finds their way into the Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl by way of a nine-game winning streak, which began after they lost their second and third games of the season. UCLA's path could not be more different. The Bruins have lost four of their last five, with their only win coming at home against a Dennis Dixon-less Oregon team. The Cougars will also meet the Bruins for the second time this season, as they squared off on Sept. 8, with UCLA defending their home turf in a 27-17 victory. At the time, the Bruins were ranked No. 17 in the country, while BYU was unranked. Now, UCLA is the one who is on the outside of the top 25 looking in, as the Cougars sit currently in the No. 17 spot.

UCLA can cover if they can move the ball on the ground against BYU. The Bruins have averaged a pedestrian 150.1 rushing yards per game, which ranks them 63rd in the nation. They may have a tough time hitting that mark though, since BYU has only given up an average of 92.1 rushing yards per game. UCLA will need to establish the run early to soften up the Cougar defense. If they cannot, Chris Markey, the Bruins go to rusher, will most likely find his role diminished.

They can also hang with the 10-2 Cougars if the UCLA defense can slow down quarterback Max Hall and BYU's potent passing attack. The Bruins only allow an average of 22.8 points per game, and it will be critical to keep BYU around that number. Averaging over 300 passing yards per game, the Cougars have shown the ability to move the chains and score through the air. UCLA won their earlier meeting against BYU due in part to a +2 turnover margin, and turned one of those into a touchdown as they returned a Hall interception for six. Hall also fumbled twice, losing one of them. If the Bruins can rattle Hall again and force him into throwing a pick or two, the momentum could turn towards UCLA yet again.

BYU can cover if quarterback Max Hall has an average to above average game. UCLA's defense gives up around 230 passing yards per game. If Hall's 13th-ranked passing team can move the ball and he can get to his passing yard average, it should also mean they are putting points on the board. If this is the case, it will force UCLA to throw the ball, something the Bruins as a team do not do well. BYU will also need to maintain their concentration through the entire game. On Sept. 8, they were flagged 11 times in comparison to UCLA's four penalties.

Furthermore, the Cougars need to do a better job on the ground than they did in their previous matchup this season with UCLA. The Bruins held them to just 44 rushing yards on 25 attempts. This BYU team typically averages over 150 yards per game. If BYU can have a balanced attack and keep the Bruin defense guessing, they should have no problem covering. In their first meeting, Hall threw for 391 yards, but the Cougars lost, due to turnovers and a lack of a running game. Balance for BYU becomes the key.

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General notes: One of these two schools has been a Las Vegas Bowl participant in four of the last five years. They are both 1-1 in their last two appearances. UCLA is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against a team from the Mountain West Conference. They are also 22-7 ATS in their last 29 against a team with a winning record. In BYU's last 29 games, they are 20-8-1 ATS. Lastly, running back Kahlil Bell is out for the season with a knee injury, which could prove to be costly for the Bruins. In their prior meeting, Bell racked up 79 yards on 16 carries and scored a touchdown. Without Bell to aid the ground game, UCLA may not be able to keep the BYU offense off the field as long as they like. This one shows signs of a BYU cover.