The Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings is my own unique twist on the obsessive ranking systems that have dominated the sport for nearly a century. The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that I think hold the most value in college football betting at the moment and it is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football betting.
So just because my No. 1 ranked team goes out an blows out an opponent, that doesn’t strengthen their hold on the top slot. If anything, blowouts hurt value because the general betting public will then start to overestimate a team’s ability. However, teams that quietly go about their business grinding out wins and covering spreads will see their stock – and their spot in the Ferringo 15 -- steadily rise as the season progresses.
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The Ferringo 15 has been exceptional over the past four years at pinpointing undervalued teams according to their college football odds. If you were to have bet every team in the Ferringo 15 the week that they appear in my college football power rankings then you would have hit over 58 percent of your wagers for a four-year period.
After a one-week hiatus my Week 6 Ferringo 15 College Football Rankings are back. (As always, all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Wisconsin (4-0-1) – The Badgers have a high-scoring, high-flying offense in a league that is not used to seeing such firepower. But Wisconsin can still bang people over the head with their rushing attack in “garbage time,” so they will continue to lay big numbers on people. They are 40-point favorites this week, and I don’t know a lot of people rushing to get their money down on Indiana.
2. Clemson (5-1) – I, like everyone else, am still waiting for the levy to break on this team. But, of course, that is the value here. Everyone is waiting for a collapse that may or may not come. Tajh Boyd has been practicing this week and should be fine this weekend against Maryland. But the Tigers are in a letdown spot and are eight-point favorites against a team they are just 3-8 ATS against.
3. Stanford (5-0) –As long as Andrew Luck is leading the Cardinal they are going to be money at the window. I expected a bigger drop-off without Jim Harbaugh leading the charge, but the Cardinal are now 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 games going back to last year. They are suspiciously small favorites at Washington State this weekend, but they have beaten Duke and Arizona on the road by an average of 28 points.
4. Georgia Tech (4-1-1) –The Jackets have lost and ‘pushed’ the last two weeks (or taken two losses depending on where you got the N.C. State line) and could be slowing way down. But they are only laying a touchdown at Virginia this week. And with a Miami-Clemson-Virginia Tech trifecta on deck I think that there will be plenty of value situations with this team over the next month.
5. Oklahoma (4-1) –They were surgical in their decimation of Texas last week. There is no down-and-distance where this team doesn’t feel like they are going to gain a first down. Perhaps they are in a letdown spot this week, but they are facing a Kansas team that is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 conference games. OU has only won by 22, 16 and 28 in their last three trips to Lawrence, but you can’t underestimate just how awful the Jayhawks are right now.
6. Rutgers (5-0) – Look at the surprise leader of the Big East clubhouse. The top Big East team is always undervalued by the books and the public because of the lack of respect that this league gets. They are in a letdown spot after smashing Pitt last week, and Navy’s option is the last thing they want to see. But Rutgers is 6-2 SU against Navy since 2000 and in the last six years they are a solid 3-1 ATS against the Middies.
7. Temple(5-1) – This team is just wrecking its way through the MAC and I can guarantee that Al Golden wishes he was still in Philadelphia. The Owls defense is in the Top 10 in total yards allowed and points allowed and right now they are showing no mercy. They beat Buffalo 42-0 on the road last year and I don’t see any reason they won’t do the same this time around.
8. Cincinnati (4-1) – This week’s matchup with former Conference USA rival Louisville is not going to be the pushover that it appears on paper. The last five meetings have been decided by just over 11 points, on average, but that is due to a 31-point Cincy blowout in 2009. Besides that, the four most recent meetings haven’t been decided by more than eight.
9. Marshall (5-1) – I normally always have a mid-major team among the five most valuable in the country, but this hasn’t been a great year for that market because of so much parity. But Marshall has stood out, and judging by this week’s small spread against Rice they are still undervalued. The Herd is in a sandwich spot after a physical loss to Central Florida last week and with a road game at Houston on deck. Don’t be deceived by this club’s 2-4 record; they have slugged through a brutal schedule.
10. Michigan (5-1) –I know that this seems low for “Everyone’s Darling”. But there are two things at work here. First, Michigan hasn’t played anyone. Their best win may have come last week, and I was surprised that they covered. Second, they are by far the most overrated team in the Top 10. If they played anyone else in the Top 10 they would probably lose by three touchdowns. So in some ways they are overrated. But since they are road dogs this week despite their ATS success there is obviously some value still here.
11. Wake Forest (4-1) –Can Wake Forest do it again? That is the big question in the ACC this week as the Demon Deacons host Virginia Tech as a home dog one Saturday after taking down Florida State. Tanner Price is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the East right now. And were it not for his injury late in the Syracuse game this team would be a perfect 5-0 ATS. (Naturally, that one ATS loss was the only time I bet the Deacons this year. Welcome to the hell that is my life.)
12. Kansas State (4-1) –The Wildcats are quietly having a great year. And since they are road underdogs against unranked and overrated Texas Tech (who are coming off a rivalry loss against A&M), the books and betting public obviously aren’t fully buying into this club. They have been outgained in their last three games and are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Red Raiders. But this team just keeps finding ways to win right now and is as hot as anyone in the Midwest.
13. Oklahoma State (4-1) – I should probably have this team much higher than I do. They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games and the Weeden-to-Blackmon combination is the best in the country. But the Cowboys haven’t had a very challenging schedule and I still think that their win at Texas A&M was a bit of a fluke. This week’s test at Texas will be a good measuring stick for the Cowboys against the Sooners. They beat Texas handily in Austin last year, but that was the first time they had beaten the Longhorns in a decade so they still have something to prove.
14. Alabama (5-1) –I know that this seems low for a juggernaut. But I have to wonder how much longer we are going to be getting good value on the Crimson Tide. Their defense is as devastating, as advertised, and they haven’t given up more than 14 points yet this year despite playing the likes of Florida, Arkansas and Penn State. Alabama is 12-5 ATS on the road and this week they are facing an Ole Miss team that could only score seven points against the Vanderbilt defense.
15. Arkansas State (5-1) –I couldn’t have a Ferringo 15 without a little Sun Belt surprise. The Red Wolves have this Saturday off, but they host Florida International on the always-entertaining Tuesday night game next week. This group currently boasts both an offense and a defense ranked in the Top 35 in the nation and with three of their next four games at home I am expecting them to be in the thick of the conference rate late into November.
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional sports handicapper for Doc’s Sports. He has banked $2,400 in football profit last since late September and is lining up a 6-Unit College Football Game of the Month and a 7-Unit Monday Night Football Game of the Year this week. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.