NFL Totals Betting: Week 17 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 12/28/2011
Points were a bit harder to come by in Week 16 of the regular season NFL schedule with nine games staying ‘under’ the total, six games going ‘over,’ and one game ending in a ‘push’. The Christmas NFL free picks were no gift with a 0-2-1 record on our top plays. This downturn brought our year-to-date record for our best bets on the total line to 27-19-2.
There is just one week left in the NFL regular season, so it is the last chance to build your bankroll for the postseason with a full complement of games. The following are this week’s top three ‘over/under’ plays with the lines provided by BetOnline.
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Saturday, Jan. 1
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
The Bills snapped a seven-game slide with their biggest offensive output since Week 1 against Kansas City by posting 40 points against a very stout Denver defense. While it is clearly a case of too-little-too-late, look for Buffalo to try a go out with a bang this week in New England.
The Patriots have had little problem putting up points all season long, especially when they need to the most. Last week they roared back from a 17-0 third-quarter deficit to Miami to come away with a 27-24 victory. New England is ranked third in the NFL in scoring with an average of 30.9 points a game.
The total line for this game opened at 51 points and has held steady ever since. It appears that weather will not be a factor this Sunday in Foxborough so you can expect a fast track. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of the Bills last 10 games as underdogs and in 10 of the Patriots last 13 games as home favorites. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last five meetings between the two.
Game Prediction: OVER
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Redskins continue to play hard down the stretch despite a 5-10 record. The offense showed signs of life in last week’s 33-26 loss to Minnesota and has averaged 23.7 points in its last six games. Washington’s defense has not been nearly as stout; giving up 30 or more points in three of the last four games.
Since the return of Michael Vick to the lineup, the Eagles are 3-0 and have averaged more than 30 points a game. The offense is currently ranked third in the NFL in total yards and eighth in scoring with an average of 24.1 points a game.
The total line opened at 46 points and has crept-up slightly to 46.5. With no major weather events threatening the Northeast this weekend, the climate should not be a factor for Sunday’s game. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the Redskins last six games overall and in 11 of the Eagles last 15 games following a SU win. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of these team’s last five meetings.
Game Prediction: OVER
San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders
San Diego’s comeback bid to win the AFC West came to an abrupt end in a 38-10 loss to Detroit last Sunday. Philip Rivers reverted back to his old form with just one touchdown pass but two interceptions while completing only 52.8 percent of his throws.
Oakland grinded-out a 16-13 overtime victory over Kansas City to keep its division title hopes alive. The Raiders’ offense has averaged just 18.3 points a game in the past four weeks and is ranked 17th in the NFL this season in scoring with an average of 22.2 points a game.
The total line opened at 49 points and has not budged from that number since. It has stayed ‘under’ in four of the Chargers last five games against the AFC West and in six of the Raiders last eight games against the AFC. The total has also stayed ‘under’ in nine of the last 14 meetings between the two.
Game Prediction: UNDER