It was another all-time week for the Ferringo 15!
Our teams went a sparkling 11-3 against the spread and dominated the books. That now makes three of four winning weeks for our select teams, and over the past month they have gone a collective 34-18-1 ATS.
It was also another successful week for the best of the best, with the top six teams on our list going 4-1 ATS. That runs their four-week rush to a spectacular 16-4-1 ATS.
Here are this week’s Ferringo 15 college football power rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line) for what have been the most valuable teams in college football betting so far this year:
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1. Utah State (7-0-1) –The Aggies only let go of the top spot on the Ferringo 15 for a week. But a 34-point throttling of New Mexico State kept this physical, rugged team perfect on the season. The Aggies are 23-point favorites on the road this week against Texas-San Antonio, one of the newest conference members. UTSA lost by 28 to San Jose State last week and were handled by lowly Rice the week before.
2. Kansas State (5-1-1) –I am really hoping that this K-State team can run the table through the Big 12 and get a crack at whichever SEC team survives. The Big 12 was snubbed by the BCS last year (I’m sorry, but Oklahoma State was way more deserving than Alabama to be in the title game), and I hope it doesn’t happen again. The Wildcats have already slapped down a pair of patty-cake teams (Oklahoma, West Virginia) on the road. Now we’ll see if they can do it to a Texas Tech team that always seems to come up small in these big games.
3. Penn State (6-1) –I agree that Bill O’Brien should be at the top of the list for the National Coach of the Year. What he is doing with mediocre offensive talent right now is astounding. Braxton Miller is likely going to play this weekend, so I was very surprised to see the Nittany Lions favored over powerful Ohio State. If that number stays on the Penn State side I think that it is a huge red flag.
4. Fresno State (7-1) – I was somewhat worried about a letdown from the Bulldogs last week against Wyoming, but it wasn’t even close. Fresno is now a healthy two-touchdown favorite on the road against New Mexico State. But beware: the Aggies are on a 5-0 ATS run of their own and only lost by three points to Boise State in a home game last month. Also, the Bulldogs are just 14-37-1 ATS on grass, for what that is worth.
5. Mississippi (6-1) – We’ll see what Hugh Freeze has up his sleeve out of a bye week, and I have to say that I was surprised that Ole Miss was installed as an underdog tis week at Arkansas. The chalk has been the play in this series, going 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Arkansas is coming off back-to-back blowout wins, and maybe John. L. Smith has the Razorbacks turned around. But the Rebels have been much more impressive this season, and I will certainly be throwing down with them this Saturday.
6. Western Kentucky (6-1) – The bubble burst for WKU backers last week when the Hilltoppers choked one away against streaking Louisiana-Monroe. Western Kentucky actually had a 21-point lead early in that game before falling 43-42 in overtime. It will be interesting to see how they respond. The market is responding by dumping even more money on WKU; they are taking in 91 percent of the early action as a seven-point road favorite against Florida International. Smells like a trap.
7. San Jose State (6-1) –The Spartans gave WAC newbie UT-San Antonio a rude welcome last week, and now they will try to do the same thing to Texas State. This TSU team already lost by 21 points at New Mexico two weeks ago. They are coming off a peak performance against Idaho last week, but SJSU is a serious step up in class. The Spartans have only been this large of a favorite once this year, laying 20 points to FCS foe UC-Davis, and they beat the number with ease.
8. Duke (6-2) –The Blue Devils are going bowling! That was a stirring upset of rival North Carolina last week, and I think that we are going to see an obvious letdown out of the Dukies this weekend at Florida State. But the Seminoles are in a letdown spot of their own after a solid win over rival Miami in what is always a tough, physical game. I don’t know how “up” for this game FSU will be, and that could allow the Blue Devils to sneak in the back door. Duke is catching nearly four touchdowns this weekend, but they have lost by “just” 27, 19 and 25 points the past three meetings.
9. Northern Illinois (6-1-1) –The Huskies have dominated their series with Western Michigan, going 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. And now they get to kick the Broncos while they are down, as WMU quarterback Alex Carder is still out with a hand injury. Northern Illinois has won its last two games by a combined 72 points while the Broncos have dumped back-to-back road games. WMU is on a 3-6 ATS slide and right now this just looks like two teams going in opposite directions.
10. Texas Tech (5-1) –We have two teams in the F-15 facing off this week when the Red Raiders go to Manhattan to tangle with Kansas State. As I mentioned, this team always seems to come up small in these marquee situations. And what I worry about with the Raiders is that, outside of their win over West Virginia (who had played back-to-back emotional games), this Tech team has really had a cupcake schedule. Tech lost by seven at home last year to the Wildcats. That actually snapped a streak of six straight ATS wins by the Red Raiders in this series going back to 2000.
11. Oregon State (5-1) – It looks like the Beavers will get a boost this week when starting quarterback Sean Mannion returns this weekend. He is coming back less than three weeks after knee surgery, though, and I have to say I’m a little worried about him being rusty this week at Washington. The Beavers defense is No. 110 in the country against the pass, and I don’t know that Mannion will be able to keep up if this one becomes a shootout. That said, Oregon State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight against the Huskies and are 5-0 ATS in their last five games at UW.
12. Ball State (7-2) – The MAC has been very fertile ground for bettors this season with several dominant ATS teams. (I didn’t even include 6-2 ATS Toledo on my list!) Ball State is lurking in third place in the MAC West, and they don’t seem to be on anyone’s radar. What is adding to their value is that they have to play three of their next four games on the road, which means that they will likely be underdogs in each of their next three games after this week (at Toledo, vs. Ohio, at Miami, OH). It will be interesting to see if they can maintain focus this week against Army. Ball State is coming off an excellent performance against hapless Central Michigan last week, and they have that date with Toledo next week. Are they looking past the Black Knights this week?
13. South Carolina (6-2) –I’m going to stick with the Gamecocks for one more week. Two weeks ago people were wondering if this group was actually better than Alabama. But when you have to face Georgia, LSU and Florida in three straight weeks, yeah, that will take something out of you. (By the way, that is BY FAR a more difficult three-game stretch than anything Alabama has had to play in three years. The nation’s dirtiest secret is that Alabama doesn’t play anyone!) I am sticking with USC over red-hot Florida simply because I think that people are glossing over the Cocks while jumping on the Gators bandwagon. And just like it did to USC, that will come back to hurt UF backers.
14. Kent State (6-1) –I really can’t say how this team is doing it. Kent State is just No. 68 in total offense, No. 74 in total defense, and yet they are No. 39 in the nation in points scored and one of the best moneymakers in the country. This team has played a cupcake schedule to this point and are stepping out of conference to tussle with Rutgers this week. Kent State is just 4-13 ATS in its last 17 nonconference games and lost by 34 at Kentucky this year. But they are 5-1 ATS in the Big East, and I don’t know how focused Rutgers will be this week after a tough road win over Temple last week.
15. Arizona State (5-2) – The Sun Devils were humiliated on national television by Oregon last week. But that could actually be a good thing for their overall betting value. People aren’t going to easily forget that whitewashing, and they may ignore the Sun Devils over the next few weeks. But this is still a pretty good team that has made some strides under Todd Graham. They have enjoyed an easy schedule to this point. But they have a revenge opportunity this week against UCLA before closing with three of four on the road. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with the Bruins, and UCLA is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 on the road.
Honorable Mention: Florida, UL-Monroe, Troy, Rutgers, and Toledo
The Ferringo 15 college football power rankings are my profit/power rankings. They are a ranking of the 15 teams I feel currently have the most value in college football betting. It is a not merely a reward for past achievement at the window, but more a total overview of past, present, and future projected achievement against the spread.
Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and has posted 23 of 35 profitable months with his combined college and NFL football selections. He is looking forward to building on his stellar football handicapping resume again this week with his 6-Unit NFL Total of the Month on Sunday and you can check him out here.