It was a rare losing week for the F-15, which went 6-6-1, with one team on a bye and two other teams – Utah State and San Jose State – playing one another. That runs the three-week mark to 23-15-1 ATS. Our top six teams went 3-1-1 and are now 12-3-1 over the last three weeks.
Here are this week’s Ferringo 15 college football power rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line) for what have been the most valuable teams in college football betting so far this year:
1. Western Kentucky (6-0) – Give the Hilltoppers some love! That is now an incredible 15 consecutive games beating the spread! Western Kentucky continues to be the single most valuable team in college football betting, and, obviously, the books and bettors are selling them short. They have a tough game this week against a Louisiana-Monroe team that already has several BCS scalps this year. WKU won in OT on the road last year against Monroe. But despite their 15-game covering streak, the home team isn’t even taking a majority of action this week. Can they make it 16 in a row?
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2. Utah State (6-0-1) – The Aggies just continue to dominate the books and are one of just two undefeated teams at the window this year. After four of five games on the road, they are back home as thick 30-point favorites over New Mexico State. The Aggies had a peak performance last week, scoring a season-high 49 points and posting an amazing 13 sacks. They have to avoid a letdown against an NMSU that is on a five-game losing streak but also off a bye.
3. Kansas State (4-1-1) – The Wildcats held off a strong challenge from Iowa State last week but now have to go on the road into a brutal venue for a second straight outing. K-State heads to Morgantown to tussle with West Virginia’s high-powered offense. I think Kansas State can get stops in this game. But I’m not sure WVU can do the same. The Wildcats are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games, and they are 10-2-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record.
4. Penn State (5-1) – I’m interested to see what Bill O’Brien was able to work out with his team during the bye week. I think he has done one of the best coaching jobs in the country, and that this Nittany Lions team is still a bit overlooked and underrated. They have won four straight and covered five straight. However, this team is just 1-4 ATS in its last trips to Iowa and they are just 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall.
5. Mississippi (6-1) – What is holding the Rebels value is the fact that they are just 4-3 straight up despite their record at the window. People still just don’t think this team is very good. But they are one of the most experienced teams in the SEC, and they are focused on going bowling. They have a week off before a trip to face reeling Arkansas.
6. Fresno State (6-1) – The Bulldogs hit a bit of a wall last week against a Boise State team that just has their number. Fresno State was only outgained by 13 total yards but suffered a 10-point loss. Now they will have to bounce back at home against a desperate and dangerous Wyoming team that has four losses this year by a touchdown or less. The Bulldogs are 11-28-1 ATS at home. And if they want to maintain their status as a high-value wager they need to regain their home field advantage.
7. San Jose State (5-1) – This week is a very difficult situation for the Spartans. They have to be very disappointed after getting throttled at home – off a bye – in a critical game against Utah State. Now they are set to face an upstart Texas-San Antonio team on the road as a heavy favorite. UTSA is working its way through its first season in the FBS and is off a 20-point loss to Rice. But you can’t ignore SJSU’s fragile emotional state.
8. Duke (5-2) – The Blue Devils were violently brought back to reality last week on the road against Virginia Tech. But there is no doubt that they were looking ahead to this week’s rivalry game with North Carolina. Last year’s game was vicious, with trash talking from the coaches and players spilling on to the field. Carolina won for the eighth straight time. But the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and I think that this week’s game is Duke’s Super Bowl.
9. Texas Tech (4-1) – The Red Raiders are off a blowout win over West Virginia and are now a slim road favorite against fellow Top 25 team TCU. In the past this is absolutely the type of situation where Texas Tech has been known to throw up on itself. Will they avoid the letdown this week? They should. TCU is still teetering after losing quarterback Casey Paschall for the year. But Tech is still shaky on the road and in a bit of a letdown spot. Proceed with caution.
10. Oregon State (4-1) – The Beavers are now on a 5-1-1 ATS rush going back to the end of last season. Yes, they’ve had a fortunate schedule. But they have also notched three road wins already, and you know that Corvallis is a tough place to play. They face a teetering Utah team that has lost three straight games. And this is now Utah’s third road game in four weeks. Oregon State has revenge in this game for a 27-8 thrashing last year, and we’ll see if they can stay hot.
11. South Carolina (6-1) – How much does South Carolina still have left in the tank? The Gamecocks demolished Georgia then lost a heartbreaker at LSU in the last two weeks. Now they have to go on the road to face Florida in one of the most important games in the SEC East this year. USC has won each of the last two meetings and is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games against the Gators. But it is nearly impossible for them to reach that emotional high again for a third week in a row. We’ll see how deep this team can dig.
12. Northern Illinois (5-1-1) – The Huskies smashed Akron 50-14 last year and they are coming off a 45-3 domination of Buffalo last week. But UNI may be overlooking a plucky Akron team this week. The Zips have been competitive in every game since getting mauled in their opener and are on a 4-2 ATS push. Northern Illinois has a crucial game at Western Michigan next week, so they could be looking past the Zips this week.
13. Arizona State (5-1) – Arizona State is lying in wait for No. 2 Oregon this week, and I think they could pull the outright upset. Todd Graham’s offense is built to go point-for-point with a team like the Ducks. And outside of a tough loss at Missouri, the Sun Devils have been able to move the ball seemingly at-will this year. But can Arizona State’s defense get stops? Over 75 percent of the public is on the road favorite here, but Arizona State has been known to leave some bodies in the desert. I think they get the win tonight.
14. Kent State (5-1) – The home team has won three straight, and the favorite has covered eight straight in Kent’s series with Western Michigan. I guess that’s good news for the Golden Flashes this week, since they are a home favorite. Kent State is actually 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games going back to last year and they have beaten four straight small spreads (four or less) heading into this week’s small spread (they are favored by 4.0).
15. Ball State (5-2) – I guess I have been neglecting the MAC this year. Four of the most profitable teams in the country hail from this league (Toledo is the other one), and the Cardinals just keep getting the job done. They are just 1-2 ATS in their last three games. But they have played a brutal schedule this point and should be able to ease up this week on the road against a pathetic Central Michigan team that is 4-22 ATS over the last three years.
Honorable Mention: Florida, UL-Monroe, Troy, and Toledo
The Ferringo 15 college football power rankings are my profit/power rankings. They are a ranking of the 15 teams I feel currently have the most value in college football betting. It is a not merely a reward for past achievement at the window, but more a total overview of past, present, and future projected achievement against the spread.
Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and has posted 23 of 35 profitable months with his combined college and NFL football selections. Robert has banked nearly $10,000 in football profit over the last 11 months he has had football picks and will keep it going this week. He is looking forward to building on his stellar football handicapping resume again this fall and you can check him out here.