College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 11/8/2012
That’s now four winning weeks in a row for the Ferringo 15!
The Ferringo 15 went 9-5-1 against the spread last week, and if you eliminate the Duke-Clemson matchup between two of our teams then the F-15 was a lucrative 8-4-1 at the window. That was a nice bounce-back after a barely profitable 8-7 ATS the week prior.
Overall, our F-15 teams have finished the week in the black five times in the last six weeks.
The top six teams on our list – the ATS powerhouses this season – went 4-2 against the number again last week. And over the last six weeks the teams listed No. 1 thru No. 6 have gone a stupendous 26-7-1 ATS, which is good for a 78.8 percent success rate.
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Over the past six weeks the Ferringo 15 teams have gone 50-29-1 ATS. That is a 63 percent winning clip for the last month and a half and players loading up on these high-profit, low-profile teams have been making a mint. We will see if it continues.
With that in mind, here are this week’s Ferringo 15 college football rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line) for what have been the most valuable teams in college football betting so far this year:
1. Utah State (9-0-1) – At this point there isn’t anything more to say. The Aggies have been the best bet in college football over the last two years. They have this week off and then a really excellent matchup with Louisiana Tech in the de facto WAC Championship Game.
2. Kansas State (8-1-1) – It appears that Colin Klein is going to play this week at TCU. There will be questions about his effectiveness, and, really, no one knows the severity of his injury. Klein is worth a full touchdown on the spread in this game, as the Wildcats are a ‘pick’ without him and a -7.0 favorite with him under center. It is tough to make any type of move on this game without knowing his status, though.
3. Fresno State (9-1) – The Bulldogs are actually losing value, and I thought about dropping them in the F-15. The fact that they are favored by more than field goal at Nevada – which is a very tough place to play – tells me that the books are all over Fresno. The favorite is just 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings, and Nevada has won four straight in this series. The Wolfpack are also coming off a bye week, and this is a very dangerous spot for Fresno.
4. Mississippi (7-2) – Ole Miss is playing a really interesting SEC game this week against Vanderbilt. The winner becomes bowl eligible, and that is a big deal for both groups. I like Ole Miss’s speed at home, but I am not sure how they are going to hold up to the physicality of Vanderbilt. Vandy is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and has won four of five outright.
5. Western Kentucky (7-2) – The Toppers find themselves in a five-team free-for-all for the Sun Belt title right now. They may have the easiest closing schedule of the contenders. And WKU has the best defense. But their style of play isn’t really conducive to them being a big favorite. This week they are -16.5 against Florida Atlantic, but that is just the fifth time since 2010 that WKU has been posted as a favorite of -6.0 or higher, and they are just 1-4 ATS in those games.
6. Northern Illinois (8-1-1) – Their 63-0 thrashing of Massachusetts last week was impressive, as they nearly doubled up the 35-point spread. NIU has a mammoth game with Toledo next Wednesday in the final home game for the Huskies seniors.
7. San Jose State (7-2) – The Spartans have a Top 40 offense and a Top 30 defense, nationally, and this is a team that I hope gets matched up with some BCS underachiever in a bowl game. They are 22-point road favorites in their final road trip, and they have to be careful about not overlooking the Aggies and peering ahead to an intriguing game against BYU next week.
8. Northwestern (8-1) – The Wildcats have had two weeks to prepare for their trip to Ann Arbor this week. They also get to face Michigan’s backup quarterback, as Denard Robinson is doubtful for this week’s game. The line on this game has dropped four points since Robinson’s status has cleared up. But I still think that this is a game between two of the most overrated teams in the country. The road team is 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings, and Northwestern was routed 42-24 at home last year.
9. Penn State (7-2) – Last week was another reason why Bill O’Brien deserves to be the Coach of the Year. He was able to get the Nittany Lions back up off the deck after that crippling home loss to Ohio State and lead them to a blowout win at Purdue. Does he have another trick up his sleeve this week at Nebraska? Last year the Huskers were one of the first teams to take on Penn State after the Sandusky scandal broke up the program. Nebraska won 17-14, but Penn State actually outgained the Huskers. Nebraska is off an emotional win at Michigan State last week and now we’ll see if they can avoid the letdown.
10. Oregon State (6-2) – Now things get serious for the Beavers. This week they have a crucial matchup with Stanford that will determine who has the best chance to rip the Pac-12 North title from Oregon. The Beavers have lost three of four (SU and ATS) to Stanford, and they have struggled this season on the road. But I actually think that Oregon State has been hardened by a much tougher schedule this year, and I definitely think they can win this game outright.
11. Ball State (8-2) – The Cardinals scored a huge win for the books on Tuesday with their stunning upset over Toledo. That is now four straight wins both SU and ATS, and now this team has some time to prep for another huge rivalry game with Ohio next Wednesday.
12. Kent State (7-2) – I still don’t know how this team has gotten to the level it has. Their metrics are horrible, and I am already looking forward to making money betting against this group next year. They nearly lost to a weak Akron team last week – don’t let the final score fool you – and now they face a Miami, OH team that has beaten them the past two years. This week is a dangerous spot for the Golden Flashes.
13. Cincinnati (5-2) – The Bearcats kind of escaped with a cover against improving Syracuse last week. But Cincinnati has really been a bit under the radar all season long, due in part to their schedule. They still have four games on the docket and they are all against respectable opponents. Well, at least they are respectable after Temple this week. Cincinnati is on an 8-2 ATS run over the last two years and is on a 5-0 Big East push. But they are 4-12-1 ATS on the road against a team with a losing record, so this is not their best role.
14. Florida Atlantic (7-2) – The Owls have actually been one of the books’ best friends this year – not the players’! In two of the last four weeks Florida Atlantic has been getting less than 10 percent of the betting action in their games, but they went on to cover. The public was also betting hard against them in games against Georgia and Alabama earlier in the year.
15. Clemson (7-2) – Clemson is clearly not under the radar. They are a 31-point favorite against Maryland, so they aren’t disrespected. But the Tigers have covered six straight and most of them have been no-doubters. At this point you kind of have to go to the well until the well is dry. Another angle to look at in the Clemson-Maryland game is that the “under” is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
The Ferringo 15 college football power rankings are my profit/power rankings. They are a ranking of the 15 teams I feel currently have the most value in college football betting. It is a not merely a reward for past achievement at the window, but more a total overview of past, present, and future projected achievement against the spread.
Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and has posted 23 of 36 profitable months with his combined college and NFL football selections. He is looking forward to building on his stellar football handicapping resume again this week and following up last week’s profit with another winner. You can check him out here.